November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

00z is snowier than the 18z 

I’m in the BRIGHT PINK!!!

AND I DON’T OWN A GENERATOR!!!

[Randyc321]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

00z is snowier than the 18z 

There you go @SouthHillFrosty

You get phantom snow too!  Cheer up.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m in the BRIGHT PINK!!!

AND I DON’T OWN A GENERATOR!!!

Living on the edge!! 

[Skagit Weather]

38F and rain here. According to some models I should be seeing snow. It looks like the -1C 925mb line is to Darrington which is why it probably switched over (not to mention its mountain locale), but the rest of the Sound is just at freezing.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, Timmy said:

What ever happened to phil

I posted twice today. Just got buried quickly.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m in the BRIGHT PINK!!!

AND I DON’T OWN A GENERATOR!!!

We've lost power about 8 times over the last year.  

[Deweydog]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We've lost power about 8 times over the last year.  

I think we’ve lost it three times here due to weather in the 12 years we’ve been here. 

[Brennan]

Must be dumping snow up in Abbotsford. Anyone got a webcam from up there?…. Edit: yep

Edited November 28, 2022 by Brennan

[joelgombiner]

33 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

This seems to be the worst l've seen it perform.  Not only is it way off temperature wise it shows snow all the time while the temps couldn't possibly support it.  It seems ridiculous that we would spend hours detailing every nuance of it's output when we know it's pure crap.  Knowing this I still like seeing the phony forecasts it produces.  Weenie psychosis

Apparently the main problem with the GFS is data assimilation (i.e. the observations of the atmosphere that make up the starting conditions for the model run) 

[MossMan]

He’s watching us…He’s always watching all of us.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think we’ve lost it three times here due to weather in the 12 years we’ve been here. 

Three times is like a monthly thing up here!

[GoldenEars]

4 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Must be dumping snow up in Abbotsford. Anyone got a webcam from up there?

 

Its coming down hard.

[Brennan]

On 11/26/2022 at 5:18 PM, LowerGarfield said:

That's seems like such an interesting job. I had a 5:45 flight, first one of the day from KGEG to Oakland on Thanksgiving. It was really unique watching them de-ice the aircraft. I'd never had the pleasure of seeing it in person. 

Yeah, funny concept. Dude in a bucket spraying glycol all over the plane.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Brennan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Three times is like a monthly thing up here!

That’s how it is here too. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

He’s watching us…He’s always watching all of us.

The snow devil! 

[Cold Snap]

Looks like it’s about to start raining soon at my location. Convergence zone seems to be shifting south.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GFS up to its usual tricks. Garbage. One would be wise to never believe the GFS unless the ECMWF/EPS are in agreement. Look at the pretty colors and ignore it.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 21 minutes

The GFS, overdoing cold air advection?! Why, I never! I’m simply shocked!

[North_County]

Some kind of wintry mix. Sounds like it's raining ice pellets outside.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The GFS, overdoing cold air advection?! Why, I never! I’m simply shocked!

It was never this bad until their "upgrade". I remember when the WRF was very accurate and reliable. We use to utilized the 4k/12km sounding all the time and it was spot on. Now it's a disaster.

[selkirks]

37 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

00z is snowier than the 18z 

Sweet spot for Spokane/Coeur d'Alene, too.

[Snownerd3000]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

He’s watching us…He’s always watching all of us.

Santa? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

32 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

There you go @SouthHillFrosty

You get phantom snow too!  Cheer up.

Haha preciate the love 

Not trying to be a doubter. Glad some ppl up north will score

[Guest administrator]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The GFS, overdoing cold air advection?! Why, I never! I’m simply shocked!

@Gradient Keeper@Rubus Leucodermismaybe we ban the GFS, or at least 2m temps and snowfall? @Meatyorologistthoughts?

[MossMan]

Back to all snow. Very sloppy and not sticking yet. Temp at 34.1

[Guest administrator]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

He’s watching us…He’s always watching all of us.

Rich would ban snow maps too. I've sent him an invite to the forum.

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It was never this bad until their "upgrade". I remember when the WRF was very accurate and reliable. We use to utilized the 4k/12km sounding all the time and it was spot on. Now it's a disaster.

They kind of owe the world an explanation for what they changed and why it made the predictions worse. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, administrator said:

@Gradient Keeper@Rubus Leucodermismaybe we ban the GFS, or at least 2m temps and snowfall? @Meatyorologistthoughts?

NO! I love those maps! 

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, administrator said:

@Gradient Keeper@Rubus Leucodermismaybe we ban the GFS, or at least 2m temps and snowfall? @Meatyorologistthoughts?

If the model is consistently wrong, there's no reason to look at it. Do we have any plots showing predictions vs. observations? 

[North_County]

Strike that. Noticed the ice pellet sound disappeared within a few seconds of writing that, so went out to check. Radar was right.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, North_County said:

Strike that. Noticed the ice pellet sound disappeared within a few seconds of writing that, so went out to check. Radar was right.

Merry Christmas 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Sumas highway cam.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Merry Christmas 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, Winterdog said:

This seems to be the worst l've seen it perform.  Not only is it way off temperature wise it shows snow all the time while the temps couldn't possibly support it.  It seems ridiculous that we would spend hours detailing every nuance of it's output when we know it's pure crap.  Knowing this I still like seeing the phony forecasts it produces.  Weenie psychosis

Yeah, I also feel this way.  It makes you doubt everything it outputs.

What's worse is that the 'new' GFS shows the same unrealistic snow totals.  I thought borderline snow events was specifically one of the things that was improved in the new version.  Guess not for the PNW.

[North_County]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sumas highway cam.

Crazy how fast that started sticking.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, administrator said:

@Gradient Keeper@Rubus Leucodermismaybe we ban the GFS, or at least 2m temps and snowfall? @Meatyorologistthoughts?

Ban snowfall maps that show snow at surface temperatures above +2˚C or 925's above -2˚C.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It was never this bad until their "upgrade". I remember when the WRF was very accurate and reliable. We use to utilized the 4k/12km sounding all the time and it was spot on. Now it's a disaster.

The precip type characterization has also gone to sh*t in the past several years. It is if the models think water freezes at +3˚C.

[Gradient Keeper]

I remember very well when Mark Nelsen used to heavily rely on the WRF and the 4km soundings especially. Now, not so much.

[RayRay]

Should I use my UW email to get thru to Cliff Mass and have him tweak his favorite Uw GRF GFS model?

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, RayRay said:

Should I use my UW email to get thru to Cliff Mass and have hi tweak his favorite Uw GRF GFS model?

See what he says. He should have the ability to analyze model skill.