November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I remember several times where the moisture shield was forecasted to only make it as far north as Everett and we ended up getting many non-forecasted inches! November 1996, December 1998, February 2011 and a few others. Let’s trend this thing north as well!! 

Probably some wild card CZ will save you sir.

[Fircrest]

So a few more pics.  I'm enjoying this snow too much

[Blizzard777]

Slushy streets and 32.7

1.75 for the day so far 

[LowerGarfield]

Getting some mixed precipitation right now.

[RayRay]

My brother slipped into the snow in a ditch and the neighbor had to help him out with his truck and then he was going to rinse the floor with vinegar water and put a cloth in the sink and left to go play online gaming on his computer and flooded the whole downstairs. So instead of the snowmelt that flooded the downstairs last year, my brother flooded the downstairs again. Oh no.

[SnowWillarrive]

Dumping snow here. Love it 

[TacomaWx]

1” of snow here now. The radar keeps backfilling to the SW…we’ve probably got another hour before we take a break in the snow and the next round starts up. This event is over performing for sure I was thinking we might only get an inch…but we’ve already hit that and the first round isn’t over. 

[MV_snow]

Dumping here now. Getting close to 4”. It’s nice that the south sound was able to capitalize today after the north sound did yesterday. Glad to see even the Swamp doing well!

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Dumping snow here. Love it 

SnowHasarrived 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I remember several times where the moisture shield was forecasted to only make it as far north as Everett and we ended up getting many non-forecasted inches! November 1996, December 1998, February 2011 and a few others. Let’s trend this thing north as well!! 

That happened a few times in Bellingham too.

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

RIP Christine McVie. 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

1” of snow here now. The radar keeps backfilling to the SW…we’ve probably got another hour before we take a break in the snow and the next round starts up. This event is over performing for sure I was thinking we might only get an inch…but we’ve already hit that and the first round isn’t over. 

Yea….. this was suppose to be the total by the 0Z…. I wonder if we will under perform later tonight 

[Snownerd3000]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just looked through the long range on the models... amazing how dry it looks.   Even the EPS was really dry for the next 15 days.     We seem to be in a repeating pattern of short bursts of heavy precip and long dry periods.   The complete opposite of last fall and last spring.  

Oh... and winter starts in just about 5 hours.

Wasn't there a convo regarding the blocky winters going along those lines? 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea….. this was suppose to be the total by the 0Z…. I wonder if we will under perform later tonight 

00Z is 4 p.m.    It showed the main event from about 4-9 p.m. down there and you might have over-performed based on the reports here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The leading edge of that offshore development is a lot closer to the coast than most of the models would have it at this time. Maybe a small sliver of hope for those of us up north who largely missed out on yesterday's snow.

[Everleigh]

I have a, kinda slushy, 1/4 inch on the deck right now. Excited to see what the rest of the night brings! 

[LowerGarfield]

Precipitation is mostly done now. Nothing stuck. Still hopeful though.

[MV_snow]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

My son's friend in Maple Valley just called him saying it was dumping there and they've got over 3 inches. 

Yeah, it’s a nice overperformer. We are definitely over 3” here just east of Lake Wilderness. Have you had anything big in SD yet?

[Cloud]

Stevens and Snoqualmie resorts opening Friday. Sounds about right. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tonight has overperformer stamped all over it just by looking at the Sat and radar loop. 2-8 inches look solid for Everett south by the time this is over.

[Hawksfan2008]

NAM is all over the place. Now has North Bend getting 10 inches

[snow_wizard]

If the NAM is right the morning is going to be amazing in SW King County.  I am convinced there is going to be at least some snow at that time.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

NAM is all over the place. Now has North Bend getting 10 inches

I saw that too... that would be crazy.   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just looked through the long range on the models... amazing how dry it looks.   Even the EPS was really dry for the next 15 days.     We seem to be in a repeating pattern of short bursts of heavy precip and long dry periods.   The complete opposite of last fall and last spring.  

Oh... and winter starts in just about 5 hours.

Doesn't look that dry to me.  Fairly close to normal.   I see periods of troughing, periods of no anamolies in the 500mb pattern, and some higher pressure toward the end.  That part would be dry.  Perhaps these anomaly maps are not very good, especially with low resolution.   Amazing how many times I have seen a forecast model with higher resolution show us with what would be considered normal temps be portrayed as above normal.  

An example would be showing Wenatchee with a high temp in the upper 20's, and the anomaly map shows it 10 degrees above normal, when in fact it's below normal.

Here is the anomaly map

 

And the total precip map, which is the basis for the anomaly map.  Not flooding weather, but not bone dry either 

Edited December 1, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

If the NAM is right the morning is going to be amazing in SW King County.  I am convinced there is going to be at least some snow at that time.

Snow is so heavy here. Feels like this is over performing! 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Tonight has overperformer stamped all over it just by looking at the Sat and radar loop. 2-8 inches look solid for Everett south by the time this is over.

I sent ya a PM btw

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Tonight has overperformer stamped all over it just by looking at the Sat and radar loop. 2-8 inches look solid for Everett south by the time this is over.

Offshore radar is juicy. I'm hoping!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Doesn't look that dry to me.  Fairly close to normal.   I see periods of troughing, periods of no anamolies in the 500mb pattern, and some higher pressure toward the end.  That part would be dry.  Perhaps these anomaly maps are not very good, especially with low resolution.   Amazing how many times I have seen a forecast model with higher resolution show us with what would be considered normal temps be portrayed as above normal.  

An example would be showing Wenatchee with a high temp in the upper 20's, and the anomaly map shows it 10 degrees above normal, when in fact it's below normal.

Here is the anomaly map

 

And the total precip map, which is the basis for the anomaly map.

 

 

 

 

 

GFS and EPS were quite dry for the next 2 weeks... and it appears there will be many dry days in there which is not typical at this time of year.  

[Meatyorologist]

Not sure if this was posted. From last night's EPS.

[snow_wizard]

47 minutes ago, Cloud said:

We have a snow wizard and a winter warlock living in the same area. Now it’s a party!

That is funny!  It hadn't dawned on me we both have pretty outrageous names.

[JW8]

What did the Euro project for temps tonight around the region? I thought it was supposed to be a bit colder than it is.

It's consistently been about a degree too warm the last 2 nights for good sticking snow at my location.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not sure if this was posted. From last night's EPS.

We might be seeing a lot of cold this winter.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not sure if this was posted. From last night's EPS.

12Z run was not so robust...

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, JW8 said:

What did the Euro project for temps tonight around the region? I thought it was supposed to be a bit colder than it is.

It's consistently been about a degree too warm the last 2 nights for good sticking snow at my location.

Right in the 30 to 32 range.  Tomorrow is supposed to have some brisk north winds which will bring the continental cold air in.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS and EPS were quite dry for the next 2 weeks... and it appears there will be many dry days in there which is not typical at this time of year. 

As long as I can head into the dry spells with snow on the ground and score lots of cold, frosty nights, I'm fine.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As long as I can head into the dry spells with snow on the ground and score lots of cold, frosty nights, I'm fine.

Dry is usually colder than normal at this time of year.     

I am just glad the ski resorts around here have enough snow now to open.   They should do very well holding onto snow this winter.

[JW8]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Right in the 30 to 32 range.  Tomorrow is supposed to have some brisk north winds which will bring the continental cold air in.

Thanks. I didn't think temps would be an issue tonight, but it unfortunately has been here in the lower elevations of Newcastle.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If the NAM is right the morning is going to be amazing in SW King County.  I am convinced there is going to be at least some snow at that time.

The entire area is going to be rough. The next batch will have a broader area of coverage.  

[snow_wizard]

Updated CPC outlook for December.  It also indicates a somewhat suppressed jet with the highest precip anoms in Nor Cal.

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

Honestly I don't think the offshore echoes look all that impressive, yet.