November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[SouthHillFrosty]

It’s cutting back on totals….

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

12UKMET raised the band for tonight much farther north. 

It only needs to shift north another 50 miles!

[bishbish777]

Sorry I'm on mobile.That's the best I got.

[Timmy]

[Cloud]

Tugging of da rug!

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It’s cutting back on totals….

The improved snow forecast of 16.3!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It’s cutting back on totals….

Are you taking into account that the 12Z starts at 4AM, where the 6Z started at 10PM and any snow between 10PM and 4AM won't shown up on the 12Z?  Maybe you did.   Not sure what your comparison is to.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m feeling pretty good about atleast 1/2” of snow but think we get more like an inch atleast. 

If both the Euro and the GFS call for something, particularly this late in the game, it typically happens.

[smerfylicious]

Nothing like a graupel shower while I'm plowing my driveway...

[North_County]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Nice creek going through your property. 

I love it for about 10-11 months out of the year. The boys catch crawdads in the summer, which is like rural kid perfection. I see the occasional beaver and river otter. And it makes for a nice snowy winter scene. But it's a menace when we go on flood watch.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Nothing like a graupel shower while I'm plowing my driveway...

Just had one here at work as well! 

[North_County]

1 hour ago, Brennan said:

Where in Sumas is that?

My house is in the far northeast corner, just at the edge of the Sumas prairie. It's open farmland all the way to Chilliwack and the mouth of the Fraser canyon just beyond that creek.

[Perturbed Member]

HRRR and 3km NAM are optimistic for Thursday 

Seems like a decent bet that some lucky spots will get an inch or so if they get hit by some organized showers.

12z GFS looks ridiculous for Friday-Saturday. This is supposed to be the "upgraded" GFS I think. I hope it isn't even more stupidly cold biased...

[SouthHillFrosty]

15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Are you taking into account that the 12Z starts at 4AM, where the 6Z started at 10PM and any snow between 10PM and 4AM won't shown up on the 12Z?  Maybe you did.   Not sure what your comparison is to.

Yea I took that into  comparison. I was just talking about like a narrow stretch on the north side of this band that missed out yesterday. There will be some surprises 

[North_County]

30 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Most of the deciduous trees in my area had thankfully lost their leaves before last night’s snowfall. Many of the minority that had not, suffered.

Wow, looks like you melted out fast last night.

[fubario]

12 hours ago, Cloud said:

Alaska airlines confirmed the reason why the delays at Seatac today was due to airlines and port of Seattle failure to de-ice planes and runways. Really? That’s all it took? Sheesh. 

Seatac has 1 de-icer...yes, 1. My buddy was delayed 6 hours yesterday, then flight canceled. Apparently, a bunch of planes weren't de-iced properly and that compounded the problem too.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

KATX radar is down again.

[Perturbed Member]

Sadly all the other models except the GFS are trending towards keeping the Friday low too far offshore. The Euro was already showing less than 0.1 QPF and now the others are trending that way.

 

Compare to the silly GFS

[MossMan]

30 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It’s cutting back on totals….

Looks a little better for my area! Winterdog Jake, you might actually get some snow tonight! 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G17&sector=np&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

 

Satellite showing the next low developing off Vancouver Island.  You can clearly see the very white cloud tops starting to make their way into Washington.    This will be affecting the Sound later today.

[joelgombiner]

Down to 35 and light snow out on the coast at Quillayute. 

[BLI snowman]

Canadian run was pretty ugly the whole way through.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Canadian run was pretty ugly the whole way through.

It’s over. We should do well in March though. 

[Phishy Wx]

28 and moderate snow. probably have gotten 6" ish so far

[smerfylicious]

Another band of surprise light snow. What a great storm. Top tier November goodies for me.

[Dave]

Steady wind blown sideways snow at my location in Bend. Not sticking though at 36 degrees, but it is cool to see. When it snows in Eugene there is almost never any wind.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like PDX will pull off their coldest November since 2000. They are 43.6F month to date, 2000 was 42.8F

Also, assuming today doesn’t spike to 50 at some point, they should pull off an average high of 49.9 which is their first average November high below 50 since 2000 (they pulled off a 49.5 then)

The record warm October followed by a modestly chilly November makes for an interesting month to month temp drop as well. The average high in Portland dropped 22 degrees between October and November this year. We went from an average high of 71.9 in October to 49.9 in November. Not sure if any other consecutive months in their history have seen the average high drop from the 70s to the 40s but I’d imagine it’s rare, if not unprecedented.

[smerfylicious]

Really coming down. Should keep temps suppressed for a bit.

[jakerepp]

Sultan

 

[RentonHill]

[smerfylicious]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Sultan

 

This looks familiar

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

33 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

KATX radar is down again.

It’s back up.

[Dave]

Actually down to 34 at last check with some stickage.

 

[RentonHill]

Day 6

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Euro sez:

 

 

 

 

[Timmy]

Euro coming in a little colder and drier for pdx this weekend. I’m no expert but I feel we have seen this deformation situation with moisture enhancing over the gorge outflow work out for pdx in the past. Maybe that’s what the gfs is banking on?

[TacomaWx]

I still think it’s gonna snow tonight for a lot of people south of Seattle. Just don’t think it’ll be big totals like some of the gfs runs. Trace-2” from Seattle to chehalis. Euro does show some snow north of Seattle too. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro sez:

 

 

 

 

A whole winter of edging

[MWG]

It's actually almost 50F here 

[TacomaWx]

Some locally higher amounts are definitely possible. Anything that falls should stick around for a bit too. I’d be happy with 1/2” here.