November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[xfkirsten]

Woke up this morning to nothing but a wet deck. Now I'm back to looking longingly at everyone else's snow photos...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 with moderate rain. Power went out right after the wind stopped. On the generator now. Nws just put up an advisory for 4-10” of snow through tomorrow evening. Hopefully it pans out better than the advisory Monday.

[RentonHill]

Pops says a foot of new stuff in twisp. 10F. Playing with some sidewalk heaters to see how well they work. 

[Timmy]

Gfs pulled the rug on this weekend for pdx

nvm it had just skipped a frame

Edited November 30, 2022 by Timmy

[TacomaWx]

Tonight here at my house is a tossup. I think we do see some accumulation atleast but overall it’s going to be a nowcast thing. To the east and south of here the odds are a bit higher. Some people will score tonight though. 

[Darrington Troll]

9 inches overnight, turning very wet - we are right on the edge of glory.

[Timmy]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Tonight here at my house is a tossup. I think we do see some accumulation atleast but overall it’s going to be a nowcast thing. To the east and south of here the odds are a bit higher. Some people will score tonight though. 

Are any models besides the GFS calling for a south Sound special tonight?

[North_County]

Ended with about 3 inches overnight, but we're quickly warming up at 37° already. Had to hurry up and snap a picture of the backyard before it all disappears.

[smerfylicious]

Well...I'd say last night delivered. 8" is the most fair measurement i could get thanks to all the snow banks. Likely a couple extra since I picked an area that may have lost some top to the wind.

[Phishy Wx]

little underwhelming if I'm being honest over here so far.  just snow blowed about 4" off the drive and sidewalk.  Back edge of the heavy precip looks like its less than 2 hours away unless there is some back building.  warm nose approaching too as it looks like the winds are shifting from the E to the N and now WSW.  Currently 29 with Moderate Snow.  supposed to get up to 35 later around midday and then drop again below freezing later.  so some midday sloppy rain/snow mix type showers then everything freezes.  Yeah!  oof meh

[Phishy Wx]

Euro looks to definitely be winning over here on the east side, at least to this point

[Terreboner]

A frigid 42.3 over here in the high desert.  Just a bad pattern with the incessant south winds.  Calling for a rain/snow mix later possibly changing to snow, little or no accumulation.  Lame sauce.

[FroYoBro]

15 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Gfs pulled the rug on this weekend for pdx

What do you mean? Looks similar to past runs showing snow. 

[Timmy]

The 12z gfs really wants to push the cold to the east a lot more early next week.

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

What do you mean? Looks similar to past runs showing snow. 

I edited my comment a bit ago

Edited November 30, 2022 by Timmy

[Skagit Weather]

Looking at the models from yesterday morning, it appears to me that the 4/3km Hi-Res WRF was the most accurate (if anyone finds another more accurate model, please share). While snow totals were still probably a bit overdone in Everett (looks like most places there were in the 3-4") and a lot overdone close to Arlington, otherwise it seems to have picked up the snowfall spread pretty well. It has the sharp cutoff line between Downtown Seattle and North Seattle and has the complete lack of snow up in Skagit and southern Whatcom counties. It has the foot or so that fell in North Bend and the heavy snows that fell out near the Hood Canal. I mean it still gave me more snow than I saw, but I guess I could have seen a half inch if something else had happened.

This isn't that surprising because it does have the highest resolution of any model suite and was specifically catered to our climate/geography, but considering how poorly it normally does this was an impressive performance. I'll definitely be reincorporating it into my model watching routine and we'll have to see how it does for future events.

[Terreboner]

Looking like we could actually get a cold pool in the basin by this weekend, not holding my breath though.

[gusky]

NAM has a cvzn setup around 3-5pm tonight with some decent accumulation from Seattle-North. Be interesting to see how this plays out.

[High Desert Mat?]

8 minutes ago, North_County said:

Ended with about 3 inches overnight, but we're quickly warming up at 37° already. Had to hurry up and snap a picture of the backyard before it all disappears.

Nice creek going through your property. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looking at the models from yesterday morning, it appears to me that the 4/3km Hi-Res WRF was the most accurate (if anyone finds another more accurate model, please share). While snow totals were still probably a bit overdone in Everett (looks like most places there were in the 3-4") and a lot overdone close to Arlington, otherwise it seems to have picked up the snowfall spread pretty well. It has the sharp cutoff line between Downtown Seattle and North Seattle and has the complete lack of snow up in Skagit and southern Whatcom counties. It has the foot or so that fell in North Bend and the heavy snows that fell out near the Hood Canal. I mean it still gave me more snow than I saw, but I guess I could have seen a half inch if something else had happened.

This isn't that surprising because it does have the highest resolution of any model suite and was specifically catered to our climate/geography, but considering how poorly it normally does this was an impressive performance. I'll definitely be reincorporating it into my model watching routine and we'll have to see how it does for future events.

I thought that was the DCM model (Dr. Cliff Mass)

[TacomaWx]

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Are any models besides the GFS calling for a south Sound special tonight?

Yes the euro has snow here too and a couple others. If it was just the gfs on its own I wouldn’t be optimistic. Temps look good 

[Hawksfan2008]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looking at the models from yesterday morning, it appears to me that the 4/3km Hi-Res WRF was the most accurate (if anyone finds another more accurate model, please share). While snow totals were still probably a bit overdone in Everett (looks like most places there were in the 3-4") and a lot overdone close to Arlington, otherwise it seems to have picked up the snowfall spread pretty well. It has the sharp cutoff line between Downtown Seattle and North Seattle and has the complete lack of snow up in Skagit and southern Whatcom counties. It has the foot or so that fell in North Bend and the heavy snows that fell out near the Hood Canal. I mean it still gave me more snow than I saw, but I guess I could have seen a half inch if something else had happened.

This isn't that surprising because it does have the highest resolution of any model suite and was specifically catered to our climate/geography, but considering how poorly it normally does this was an impressive performance. I'll definitely be reincorporating it into my model watching routine and we'll have to see how it does for future events.

RGEM did pretty well also 

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

RGEM did pretty well also 

I noticed that as well, although it was too low near Everett, too high up here, and significantly too high up near the border. And probably more than could be explained just by lack of resolution.

[Skagit Weather]

11 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I thought that was the DCM model (Dr. Cliff Mass)

Shhh...Don't tell him how well his model performed.

[Everleigh]

37* and rain. I am not sure it gets much more miserable than that..... 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Shhh...Don't tell him how well his model performed.

Shockingly the WRF did well yesterday. Cliff is vindicated 

[TT-SEA]

[Brennan]

29 minutes ago, North_County said:

Ended with about 3 inches overnight, but we're quickly warming up at 37° already. Had to hurry up and snap a picture of the backyard before it all disappears.

Where in Sumas is that?

[RentonHill]

Biggest tease in the world. Looks like GOOFUs wants to do the same thing too but its stuck on Pivotal and WB. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Biggest tease in the world. Looks like GOOFUs wants to do the same thing too but its stuck on Pivotal and WB. 

EPS from last night also does this. Bummer. 

[lowlandsnow]

Portland gets some snow on this run

[smerfylicious]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I can only emulate a bit

[LowerGarfield]

My snow chances are basically non existent here for the next week. We were slated to get some tomorrow but it has trended away from that. Lots of sunshine the next week ahead sadly. But I'm still happy for all of you. Your snow photos are brightening my day.

 

[Terreboner]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

My snow chances are basically non existent here for the next week. We were slated to get some tomorrow but it has trended away from that. Lots of sunshine the next week ahead sadly. But I'm still happy for all of you. Your snow photos are brightening my day.

 

Pathetic pattern over here central/eastside, unless you live above 4-4.5k elevation.

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Pathetic pattern over here central/eastside, unless you live above 4-4.5k elevation.

Exactly. It kind of fell apart for Central Oregon and far SE WA. Currently no recent runs have showed snow for us. Right in the doughnut hole. That said. I'm happy for everyone sharing snow totals esp on the west side.

[Nov1985]

Somehow the power stayed on here overnight. The trees look very sad. There's still 7.5" of wet snow on the patio table. Thankfully less on the giant driveway which I must clear before refreeze. It finally hit 32.0° at 2 am. Currently 32.5 / 32.0. It's shovel time!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Most of the deciduous trees in my area had thankfully lost their leaves before last night’s snowfall. Many of the minority that had not, suffered.

[bishbish777]

12UKMET raised the band for tonight much farther north. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, bishbish777 said:

12UKMET raised the band for tonight much farther north. 

Post it pls