PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, November was decent but last few weeks not much precip around.

Have you been to Breck before? Great mountain, something for almost everyone.

We drove I-70 across the Rockies from Denver to Grand Junction last March and it was gorgeous. First time taking that route.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

I certainly think you have a point. Since TWL did get like 7-10 inches last Dec and much of Portland missed out. 

Eugene also scored hugely on 2/25/19.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Looking at the CMCE spaghetti chart. About 40% cold, 40% cool, 10% neutral and 10% torch for the Tuesday Wednesday period.

[Doinko]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Eugene also scored hugely on 2/25/19.

How much snow do you have that day? That's was our most significant accumulation in February 2019 with a nice 2.5". A bit of snow the next few days too

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Eugene also scored hugely on 2/25/19.

Eugene officially recorded 8.2" on the 26th last December and 1.9" on the 27th. They also had a 34/22 day on the 27th. It is fair to note they ran a +1.0 departure on that month. 

[The Blob]

Seeing as it is Friday,  should I plan for a major ice storm? I need to keep the husband busy during these 60hr weeks.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Doinko said:

After 2016/2017 we've had a total of 21" of snow in 5 winters(after 18" in just 2016/17) Not really been doing that great compared to most of the region. I think if you go towards Beaverton/Hillsboro and then farther south they've had even less.

More than double that here, at the same elevation and less than 20 miles away as the crow flies. There can be some pretty dramatic differences around the Portland metro area.

[Front Ranger]

39 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Some worse than others.

UKMET essentially tripling down is a great indicator that the GFS is severely misguided.

Yeah, the closer we get to the actual air mass being close, the more model consensus matters - and at this moment, the GFS is on its own and that doesn't bode well for it.

But the fact that all models have been all over the place the past few days just shows this is not one of those slam dunk patterns where you can throw out the occasional bad run.

The massive swing in the GEM from 0z to 12z is great, but need to see a little more consistency starting now.

[yellowstone]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Third straight UK run with a band of 6+ inches in a CZ North of Seattle Sunday night. 
 

 

Ugh. Hoping it’s a bit further south as some of the other models are showing. 

[Doinko]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

More than double that here, at the same elevation and less than 20 miles away as the crow flies. There can be some pretty dramatic differences around the Portland metro area.

Yeah, it's still crazy to me that we had only 4.5" of snow with layers of sleet and ice in February 2021 while just 10-20 miles away had more than a foot.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

If the 12z UKMET and EURO show this then I would say so.

You do that at your own risk.

[RentonHill]

29 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@RentonHillTC @Meatyorologist y’all want to go to a bar on Tuesday night for a happy hour if this thing bust?

100%

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUG SCORED 19.1" in February 2019. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doinko said:

How much snow do you have that day? That's was our most significant accumulation in February 2019 with a nice 2.5". A bit of snow the next few days too

Oh man I’d have to go back and look but I don’t think it was anything to write home about. Maybe an inch or less. Our biggest event of February 2019 was on the 9th when we got 6-7”. But that was a very east side centric event if I recall. We benefited from cold air slowly bleeding out of the Gorge while areas in the west and south metro just had 35 degree rain.

[kokaneekidz]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

RDPS looks pretty similar to the UKMET. Arctic front draped across NW Oregon at hour 84. 

Really hope we get a regionwide event. And it sticks around for a minute

[Gummy]

1 minute ago, yellowstone said:

Ugh. Hoping it’s a bit further south as some of the other models are showing. 

CZ zones are very hard to pinpoint this far out and it is the UKMET. Although, that is about where the CZ likes to set up so wouldn't be a shocker.

[Front Ranger]

28 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Any snow for our non PNW tiger next week?

Looking good if the non-GFS solutions are correct! And very cold...sub zero temps for sure.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, the closer we get to the actual air mass being close, the more model consensus matters - and at this moment, the GFS is on its own and that doesn't bode well for it.

But the fact that all models have been all over the place the past few days just shows this is not one of those slam dunk patterns where you can throw out the occasional bad run.

The massive swing in the GEM from 0z to 12z is great, but need to see a little more consistency starting now.

Definitely nothing settled, but if the Euro jumps back on board a bit more then I think momentum is clearly in favor of the slower/westward progression. Especially with the biggest synoptic players in this largely now being set into motion in under 96-120 hours, which is typically money time for the Euro.

This Euro run is absolutely massive and could literally make or break this entire winter (not to mention holiday season) for us all. 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 29. Got down to 24 this morning. This literally has to be the most wild rollercoaster for model riding we have seen in a while. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this much inconsistency.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Definitely nothing settled, but if the Euro jumps back on board a bit more then I think momentum is clearly in favor of the slower/westward progression. Especially with the biggest synoptic players in this largely now being set into motion in under 96-120 hours, which is typically money time for the Euro.

This Euro run is absolutely massive and could literally make or break this entire winter (not to mention holiday season) for us all. 

I just vomited I'm so nervous. 

[Front Ranger]

15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This will be my first time skiing outside of WA/BC. I’m excited but definitely hope they can get a bit more fresh snow in the meantime. Either way it should be a lot of fun though. If you have any tips on fun things to do around Denver I’m all ears. I’ve never been.

Sure thing. DM me.

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, Gummy said:

CZ zones are very hard to pinpoint this far out and it is the UKMET. Although, that is about where the CZ likes to set up so wouldn't be a shocker.

Pretty consistent pscz signal in several models for Sunday night for days now. Pretty sure there will be enough energy to make it significant. Another less likely alternative would be much colder and drier which would also be cool. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Oh man I’d have to go back and look but I don’t think it was anything to write home about. Maybe an inch or less. Our biggest event of February 2019 was on the 9th when we got 6-7”. But that was a very east side centric event if I recall. We benefited from cold air slowly bleeding out of the Gorge while areas in the west and south metro just had 35 degree rain.

We had a hair over 2" here in the 2018-19 snowstravaganza. I think from this area to downtown Portland along I-5 did the absolute worst in the PNW that winter.

Got about 0.8" of pixie dust with the first event on the 4th, a quick inch on the 9th, and then a couple of meager dustings with the late February and early March events.

[MWG]

Freezing fog this morning. Low looks like it was 21F and currently it's 27F.

I should get a tan next week! 

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I certainly think you have a point. Since TWL did get like 7-10 inches last Dec and much of Portland missed out. 

To be fair, he's admitted he's done well with snow recently, his main complaint has shifted to lack of cold (especially sub-freezing highs and actual Arctic air) there compared to further north - and that's legitimate.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2019 was the only point where I have gotten tired of the snow and was looking forward to it melting. 

[Timmy]

I feel like a remember Feb 2013 being similar with the models where they had given up then just a few days before things turned real cold and snowy?

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We had a hair over 2" here in the 2018-19 snowstravaganza. I think from this area to downtown Portland along I-5 did the absolute worst in the PNW that winter.

Got about 0.8" of pixie dust with the first event on the 4th, a quick inch on the 9th, and then a couple of meager dustings with the late February and early March events.

We did slightly better but then we also did worse the previous year in Feb 2018. I think we had only 2" of snow on the 20th and then another 2.5" on the 22nd. Also a half inch on the 18th

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How does the KOREAN look?

[TT-SEA]

The most anticipated ECMWF run ever is starting now!  

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

We did slightly better but then we also did worse the previous year in Feb 2018. I think we had only 2" of snow on the 20th and then another 2.5" on the 22nd. Also a half inch on the 18th

February 2018 was a pretty nice stretch here and overachieved bigly. Had about 1/2" on the 14th, 2.8" on the 18th, 4.5" on the 20th, and 1.5" with the last event on the night of the 21st.

Mother Nature owed us a middle finger the next year.

[DRG]

Portland AFD sums it up pretty well by saying that the models are not handling the two competing air masses very well.  Basically saying somewhere in the cascades between Canada and CA is going to get drilled with snow and then with some of that energy reaching the lowest elevations.  Basically close eyes, throw grenade, brace for impact...

 

"To close, please do not take any one model or forecast for next week, then never look again expecting it will stay the same. It is fully expected this forecast will fluctuate and bounce between both modes between now and next week."

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PQR&issuedby=PQR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I feel like a remember Feb 2013 being similar with the models where they had given up then just a few days before things turned real cold and snowy?

2014? Yeah, I remember that as well, and then it looked like just a dry blast with the precip staying south of Roseburg, and it trended north at the last minute. Came together very quickly. The whole January 2004 thing was not forecast well in advance either, just a couple days. The New Year's Day snow event was a total surprise, and the overrunning event only came into focus 2-3 days out IIRC. 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The most anticipated ECMWF run ever is starting now!  

Gee and I felt that way with every run last weekend lol 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

February 2018 was a pretty nice stretch here and overachieved bigly. Had about 1/2" on the 14th, 2.8" on the 18th, 4.5" on the 20th, and 1.5" with the last event on the night of the 21st.

Mother Nature owed us a middle finger the next year.

Mid-February through early April 2018 was a really nice stretch. We put up a 28/16 day in late February, which is about as good as it gets that late in the season. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Seems the UW WRF-GFS cut back on the Convergence snow on Sunday.

Total snow Sunday @ 8PM:

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2019 was the only point where I have gotten tired of the snow and was looking forward to it melting. 

Jim does not compute.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through tomorrow evening per 12Z ECMWF... we don't have to track anything tomorrow.    That will be a prep day!

 

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How does the KOREAN look?

I dunno, but the JMA is better than the GFS, not as good as the CMC.

[Seattle]

Looks like SEA got down to 28. 33 currently there. Similarly colder at my own home. Lots of thick frost out there this morning. Thin high clouds blocking the sun to the south.