PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Snownerd3000]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I can see January being so highly anticipated this year that its arrival will be treated by many as a social event. Parties centered almost entirely on its exact point of arrival. Time will tell!

MDMA and howling at the moon out at @MR.SNOWMIZERplace? 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

Best weather of my childhood. Day one got 5 inches of powder and it stuck around until well after Christmas. Tacoma has the best sledding 

We do have some good sledding hills here. Have even been known to bust out snowboards during 2019 and 2021 here. 

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We do have some good sledding hills here. Have even been known to bust out snowboards during 2019 and 2021 here. 

Carr Street hill was the gold standard back in the day. 

[TacomaWx]

You know it’s getting interesting when mike Snyder drops 2 videos in one day. 

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What happened?  Not home.   I did see some highlights and its not snowing and you would never know they are buried outside the stadium.  

Bills fans raining snowballs on the field. They stopped the game for a bit, threatened to give the Bills a 15 yard penalty. 

[Blizzard777]

I feel spoiled already from the last few years but I’m willing to take more! 
Name change was due…..retiring Jginmartini in honor of my father in law.  I must move on!!! 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like Mark is going for a total non-event (assuming he is the one forecasting tonight) Seems pretty bold to not have even a single day below 35 or any frozen precip next week but who knows. I’m fairly bearish about this event overall but a high in the low 30s Thursday and some ZR definitely seems possible.

I don't think he's updated it yet. With the cold EPS I find it hard to believe Mark isn't biting at all.

[bainbridgekid]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 2004 comparison makes some sense even though I’d be surprised if things worked out that well south of PDX. The 2012 comparison is non sensical to me. Not nearly the level of arctic air nearby or potential for offshore flow. 

Didn’t BLI pull off a 19/12 day in January 2012? I remember being shocked how cold the outflow was.

[Terreboner]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

I don't think he's updated it yet. With the cold EPS I find it hard to believe Mark isn't biting at all.

He will at least do another blog post, maybe not tonight but by tomorrow afternoon.  Better not be a lame one where he only mentions his chickens.

[lowlandsnow]

NAM is way better system is much farther south

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

WTF is going on at The Dalles?! They just jumped from 34 to 46.

I just jumped from 33.4 to 33.9!

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Strong WNW winds started to gust to near 40 mph and the temps went way up. Interesting. They reporting rain now too. 

PDX-DLS +3.5mb

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Frontal boundary appears to be just north of the U.S. border.  

[Perturbed Member]

00z NAM shifted a bit south

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Didn’t BLI pull off a 19/12 day in January 2012? I remember being shocked how cold the outflow was.

Yeah there was Fraser Outflow, but that kind of goes to Jesse s point. Overall this one looks like a different ball game. South of Seattle 2012 was a total onshore flow fest except for like 8 hours at the end of the event. East of the cascades and the gorge look to potentially be way colder with this thing. 

[Nov1985]

Seems like 00z NAM is figuring out how to handle the Tue low passage before the 2nd wave of cold breaks back down.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Including today, we have seen 18 freezes so far. Doing pretty good. Had some fog move in and warm us up to 35F or so on a couple of those nights where EUG got down to freezing and must have cleared out.

[MossMan]

New high on the day! 34.2. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like the operational has some ensemble support in the long range. Also the long range GFS ensemble definitely trending colder in mid

January. 

[Hawksfan2008]

NAM now looks much closer to the EURO than the GFS. Tonight is the night the GFS bends the knee to the king. 

[Requiem]

I also don't understand the 1/2012 comparisons-- this looks colder down here. That was a ton of onshore flow and foothill snow-- this one seems to have a lot more Gorge CAA.

[Gradient Keeper]

Models trending colder down the home stretch? Nice.

00z GFS in 36 minutes

[SnowPlz]

Seattle is possibly in play for 6 inches of snow Tuesday/Wednesday. Couple inches on Monday wouldn’t surprise either. Getting exciting! 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Playing Battlefield 4, watching football, and tracking snow with an ice-cold tea.  Perfect Saturday evening!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like the operational has some ensemble support in the long range. Also the long range GFS ensemble definitely trending colder in mid

January. 

Southeast ridge too. 

[SnowPlz]

Just now, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Playing Battlefield 4, watching football, and tracking snow with an ice-cold tea.  Perfect Saturday evening!

This really is peak living. Halo later. Football now. World Cup and football tomorrow. Holidays. Snow chances all week. Let’s go! 

[BLI snowman]

22 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Didn’t BLI pull off a 19/12 day in January 2012? I remember being shocked how cold the outflow was.

That one was entirely Fraser River driven (and more of a seepage at that) with almost no penetration into the Columbia Basin. The outflow was very cold in Whatcom County, but rather anemic in its intensity. The winds topped out around 30mph at BLI and I remember the arctic air took about 18 hours to get from Ferndale to Fairhaven.

[ShawniganLake]

36/30 today with about 1/2” of snowfall around lunchtime 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RGEM just did a total cave to the GFS. 

[Sandy rocks]

I don't see how it could be 46 in The Dalles. It is 32 here in Sandy. A frosty day with a high of 34.

[xfkirsten]

6 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Playing Battlefield 4, watching football, and tracking snow with an ice-cold tea.  Perfect Saturday evening!

God of War: Ragnarok, here! Just finished the main story, and feeling all of the feelings.

[Nov1985]

Ya, lots of alignment. I didn't expect the cold to get stretched out to late Thu/Fri today. Tuesday low trending to a night/Wed morning low with plenty of time for adjustments. And cold just getting entrenched which can only help PDX and maybe better. 

I mean how often does this happen for this long?

[joelgombiner]

BLI-YWL -8.5 mb. 

Wind still from the south at BLI though. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

RGEM just did a total cave to the GFS. 

And nam goes south. Worst model agreement this close I have ever seen.

[bishbish777]

RGEM is actually worse than 18Z GFS

[Terreboner]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And nam goes south. Worst model agreement this close I have ever seen.

Let me see

[bishbish777]

Wishcasting...these northern and southern energies are going to phase together and blast us with snow..

[Snowdome]

6 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I don't see how it could be 46 in The Dalles. It is 32 here in Sandy. A frosty day with a high of 34.

Roads were pretty frost free up at Mt Hood in the afternoon, on the drive back going through east Sandy it was still super frosty there. 
 

40/25 day with long lasting frost in OC
 

 

[Snowdome]

Just now, Snowdome said:

Roads were pretty frost free up at Mt Hood in the afternoon, on the drive back going through east Sandy it was still super frosty there. 
 

40/25 day with long lasting frost in OC
 

 

Forgot the pic! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Let me see