PNW December 2022 - Part II

[SnowWillarrive]

32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

UNDER SEIGE

Looks cancerous 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Looks cancerous 

[T-Town]

15 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

My parents and brother/niece are camping in Big Sur this week starting today. It's a whale watch booze party. It's an annual family tradition of theirs to go camping there with no cell service until Jan 1.

They hike during the day when it isn't raining and they sing bluegrass songs with guitars and  alcohol by the fire at night. I told them this year it will be wet. A bunch of families have been doing this for like thirty or forty years now. I stopped going because it's tough to travel and camp but they love it. Kids of the families now come and bring their own kids/friends. They are probably drinking something fun and trying to stay dry now if their drinks aren't.

 

They camp right on the bluff overlooking the ocean about two hours south of Monterey and one hour north of Hearst Castle.

That’s awesome. Jack Kerouac would approve. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

My parents and brother/niece are camping in Big Sur this week starting today. It's a whale watch booze party. It's an annual family tradition of theirs to go camping there with no cell service until Jan 1.

They hike during the day when it isn't raining and they sing bluegrass songs with guitars and  alcohol by the fire at night. I told them this year it will be wet. A bunch of families have been doing this for like thirty or forty years now. I stopped going because it's tough to travel and camp but they love it. Kids of the families now come and bring their own kids/friends. They are probably drinking something fun and trying to stay dry now if their drinks aren't.

 

They camp right on the bluff overlooking the ocean about two hours south of Monterey and one hour north of Hearst Castle.

D**n I wish I was there. Most scenic coastline in America. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How did the weeklies look? 

[Terreboner]

She looks very juicy.

 

GOES-West - Sector view: Northern Pacific - Band 8 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How did the weeklies look? 

Late Jan into Feb still in play 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

How are the forecasts for the PDO, PNA, EPO, and NAO looking? 

I just came on here to comment about the PNA forecast from today's ECMWF weeklies.  It shows sub -1 as we get into February which is about as strong a signal as I've ever seen that far out.  Being that these things often happen faster than projected I'm thinking the final week of January for things to get going.  Could even be sooner if things take an unforeseen path to reach the goodies.

[HuskyMaestro]

6 hours ago, Cloud said:

Wow!!! Look at all this rain aiming for the entire state of California. A blessing. 

I couldn't help but see Yuma, Arizona at a sad 0.1" of rain. 

If there's one town in the Lower 48 I could think of that has the most excruciatingly boring weather that would drive weenies insane, it'd be Yuma. Instant move to Flagstaff for me. 

[snow_wizard]

The models look remarkably dry after this next system.  You would never think so looking at the 500mb maps for next week.  A lot of jet suppression and surface high pressure it appears.

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just came on here to comment about the PNA forecast from today's ECMWF weeklies.  It shows sub -1 as we get into February which is about as strong a signal as I've ever seen that far out.  Being that these things often happen faster than projected I'm thinking the final week of January for things to get going.  Could even be sooner if things take an unforeseen path to reach the goodies.

What about the EPO?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Late Jan into Feb still in play 

The excitement is palpable.

 

[SimplySmoothWX]

11 hours ago, Chris said:

Anecdotally I believe SSWs significantly increase the PNW odds in a Nino winter. 

Since 1958, there have been 18 SSW events during El Nino winters.

15 of those impacted the Continental U.S.

8 of those impacted the PNW, them being Jan 1958, Dec 1965, Feb 1966, Nov 1968, Jan 1970, Dec 1987, Feb 2007, and Jan 2019.

Statistically, that's a 44% chance a SSW affects us during an El Nino. La Ninas are at a higher margin, with 50% (8 out of 16) affecting the PNW. There are also more household names on the La Nina side. Feb 1989, Dec 1998, and Feb 2021 just to name a few. 

Overall, I would view SSWs during ENSO events the same way I view them on lowland snow. Sure, there is an increase for snow during La Nina but it is not guaranteed.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the surface pressure maps for the ECMWF at day 10 this is actually a pretty chilly pattern.  The main jet is well retracted westward and the cutoff low off of CA leaves us in a NE surface pressure gradient with slightly below normal 850s.  Pretty cold by recent Jan standards. 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What about the EPO?

Zero which is fine.

[Terreboner]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models look remarkably dry after this next system.  You would never think so looking at the 500mb maps for next week.  A lot of jet suppression and surface high pressure it appears.

Lots of chances here in Central OR for wraparound precip and easterly/upslope flow.  I like it.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SimplySmoothWX said:

Since 1958, there have been 18 SSW events during El Nino winters.

15 of those impacted the Continental U.S.

8 of those impacted the PNW, them being Jan 1958, Dec 1965, Feb 1966, Nov 1968, Jan 1970, Dec 1987, Feb 2007, and Jan 2019.

Statistically, that's an 53% chance a SSW affects us during an El Nino. La Ninas are at a higher margin, with 61% (8 out of 13) affecting the PNW. There are also more household names on the La Nina side. Feb 1989, Dec 1998, and Feb 2021 just to name a few. 

Overall, I would view SSWs during ENSO events the same way I view them on lowland snow. Sure, there is an increase for snow during La Nina but it is not guaranteed.

The winter of 1957-58 was a colossal turd for the PNW though.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Lots of chances here in Central OR for wraparound precip and easterly/upslope flow.  I like it.

Very possible with that pattern.

[SimplySmoothWX]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The winter of 1957-58 was a colossal turd for the PNW though.

True. It was the golden egg in an otherwise ugly winter.

[Terreboner]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very possible with that pattern.

Right now the end of next week, Thur/Friday-ish is looking interesting.  Looks like lots of low level easterlies with precip overriding central and eastern OR.  Temps don't get out of the 20's for the duration.

[GHweatherChris]

58 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Late Jan into Feb still in play 

That honestly looks meh,  we shouldn't have to wait for something that kinda sorta resembles hope... alas... we deserve so much more!!

[Bueryan]

Shout out to my big brother on his 44th birthday. He used to wake me up in 1st grade to watch street lights and listen to his weather radio for NWS updates which started my weather interest. He also introduced me to the forum 8 or 9 years ago which my wife wishes never happened. He's watching the Huskies game but he'll find this eventually. Love you man

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

D**n I wish I was there. Most scenic coastline in America. 

It really is. Often you can see whale spouts from the gray whales passing by. Like I said, my parents would make us go every year even in rain... except there'd be a few years where the mudslides would close the road in both directions. Big Sur can be a real winner in storms like this one. The one bummer would be when it would rain on NYE because everyone would stay in their tents and the wild party would be not as fun. Some years on NYE we would even visit a now retired Monterey congressman's property about 10 mins away. That party wasn't as fun so we stopped going there and stayed at the campground. They also made everyone play for entertainment instead of for fun. My parents are also going on a trip to Baja to see the whales there for the first time, in just a few weeks so I'm a bit jealous.

I like camping and hiking but I think model riding is just as fun. Sure beats refreshing weather.com every 5 minutes 20 years ago for stations 1 hr north and south in hopes of a sunny week. Currently 37F at my location. We had some rain earlier.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Late Jan into Feb still in play 

I'm cool with FEB 2019 redux.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Late Jan into Feb still in play 

Funny how good the control is in the shorter range.

[Slushy Inch]

Chilly lows on GFS.

[Slushy Inch]

CFS weekly average heights. Pretty dam good.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Chilly lows on GFS.

Some frost in Seattle... is that even possible in January? 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Some frost in Seattle... is that even possible in January? 

December is supposed to be colder than January, but somehow February has been way better than JAN.

[Snownerd3000]

What is the MJO looking like? 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

What is the MJO looking like? 

6

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

6

Wanna post it pls? I’m lazy

[SouthHillFrosty]

WV special!

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wanna post it pls? I’m lazy

I mean it's not a good phase for us

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wanna post it pls? I’m lazy

[High Desert Mat?]

8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

So basically we want to be in 2 then. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Bueryan said:

Shout out to my big brother on his 44th birthday. He used to wake me up in 1st grade to watch street lights and listen to his weather radio for NWS updates which started my weather interest. He also introduced me to the forum 8 or 9 years ago which my wife wishes never happened. He's watching the Huskies game but he'll find this eventually. Love you man

Hmmm…

He turned 27 today in 2005…

[Deweydog]

Meanwhile, it’s WET.

[The Blob]

Rain!!

[NWbyNW]

Wind gusts are hitting the central and southern Oregon coast right now!  Already seeing gusts in the 40s with 50s likely later.  Already 400 new people are out of power within Coos County.  This wind will progressively get stronger until the early morning hours of Friday when it shifts to the Washington Coast and sputters in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Chances of strong gusts for the North Sound are diminishing. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just a baby Alaska ridge on this run. Been quite on the forum lately, I hope models get more interesting soon.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Gutters are getting there work in rn

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Gutters are getting there work in rn

Going to love the sound of a down pour on the roof.

[....]

Not much to report weather wise for my neck of the woods. Little breezy/gusty (18.5mph biggest), just 0.02in rain. Temp at 46.5*. Boring, but I am cool with that for now!  

[snow_wizard]

Jet retraction showing up very nicely on the 6z GFS and GEFS.  Now we're getting somewhere.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

Not much to report weather wise for my neck of the woods. Little breezy/gusty (18.5mph biggest), just 0.02in rain. Temp at 46.5*. Boring, but I am cool with that for now!  

I had a gust to 22 during the east wind portion of this.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is now at 7.40 inches for December which is just about 2 inches above normal... and at 40.11 inches for 2022.

The annual rainfall average jumped almost 2 inches with the 1991-2020 update to 39.34 inches.  Since then there was 43.33 inches in 2021 and now over 40 inches in 2022.    So Seattle's annual rainfall average keeps going up.    

SEA has recorded more than 40 inches of rain in 9 years just since 2010.   That is pretty impressive considering the average was only 37.49 inches per year before the averages were updated last year.

Seattle is getting warmer and wetter.   But the seasonal rainfall distribution is becoming more extreme with the cold season becoming wetter while the warm season becomes drier.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is now at 7.40 inches for December which is just about 2 inches above normal... and at 40.11 inches for 2022.

The annual rainfall average jumped almost 2 inches with the 1991-2020 update to 39.34 inches.  Since then there was 43.33 inches in 2021 and now over 40 inches in 2022.    So Seattle's annual rainfall average keeps going up.    

SEA has recorded more than 40 inches of rain in 9 years just since 2010.   That is pretty impressive considering the average was only 37.49 inches per year before the averages were updated last year.

Seattle is getting warmer and wetter.   But the seasonal rainfall distribution is becoming more extreme with the cold season becoming wetter while the warm season becomes drier.  

More north South gradient. Eugene has like 4” this month and we don’t have much more than Seattle, around 9” now. I don’t do calendar year rainfall, but we were above average for the previous water year and we are slightly below for the new on that started in October. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Jet retraction showing up very nicely on the 6z GFS and GEFS.  Now we're getting somewhere.

EPS says we have a long way to go.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS says we have a long way to go.    

Not a surprise. Nothing of note is going to happen until the last week of the month and it may very well wait for the calendar flip. 

Edited December 30, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew