PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Cold Snap]

Hoping the Euro can deliver a region wide cold and snow event for everyone!

[snow_wizard]

Really surprised the GFS turned out THIS good.

[MWG]

I'll settle for anything! We haven't had snow at all. 

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Really surprised the GFS turned out THIS good.

What's Salem and Portland like? 

[Phishy Wx]

top shelf shiit incoming

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah. We have no idea what next week will bring. Unleash the hounds. 

Ok why is everyone saying “hE gOT thAT dOg In hIM” and “SOMe BIg DaWGz oN THiS RuN” all the sudden 

[snow_wizard]

GEFS mean bottoms out at -8.9 on the 850s for SEA.  Coldest run yet.

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

What's Salem and Portland like? 

Even more absurd. They both fall below freezing starting on 1/29 and don't go above it for the entire rest of the run.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What's Salem and Portland like? 

Similar for EUG.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Even more absurd. They both fall below freezing starting on 1/29 and don't go above it for the entire rest of the run.

 

 

The minus 17 on Feb 6 is pretty out there alright!

[MWG]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really surprised the GFS turned out THIS good.

Can you post Medford?

[kokaneekidz]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Terrain bleed for sure. Whidbey island is a dry oasis like Sequim especially near Coupeville.  No way they score more than you. Makes Zero sense

[Doinko]

Just now, kokaneekidz said:

Terrain bleed for sure. Whidbey island is a dry oasis like Sequim especially near Coupeville.  No way they score more than you. Makes Zero sense

Isn't Sequim a good spot for upsloping moisture with northerly flow though?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Ok why is everyone saying “hE gOT thAT dOg In hIM” and “SOMe BIg DaWGz oN THiS RuN” all the sudden 

stop worrying about the new fad and just enjoy being yourself

[kokaneekidz]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Isn't Sequim a good spot for upsloping moisture with northerly flow though?

Can be closer to the foothills . Near Dungeness spit is usually snowless regardless. I went there to the wild animal farm during February 2019 and they had very little.  A dusting. Meanwhile at Bainbridge there was a foot. And near Port Ludlow about 8inchez

[kokaneekidz]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Isn't Sequim a good spot for upsloping moisture with northerly flow though?

Overall, you need to be near the highway or south, then it piles up quick as you ascend into the beginning of the Olympics. West of Sequim is much better ... 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[yellowstone]

Well, at least @SilverFallsAndrew was right about that North/South snow gradient after all…

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, MWG said:

Can you post Medford?

[snow_wizard]

The temp is falling slowly tonight.  Down to 35.8.  Might eek out a freeze.

[Deweydog]

Just had a chocolate Snack Pack in preparation for the Euro coming round to kick us in the nuts.

[MWG]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Thank you! This temps are meh! but then again not what you expect for February. 

[Requiem]

Waiting for that EURO gut punch...

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 54 ridge merger ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looks improved overall

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Next.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Next.

Did you get an upsetting text?

[SpaceRace22]

Euro could still go either way at this point. Definitely some differences from the GFS already, but hard to say so far if they are positive or negative changes.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Interesting to see how GFS and EURO handle that initial little push of lower heights in comparison with the GEM.

[MossMan]

34 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Ok why is everyone saying “hE gOT thAT dOg In hIM” and “SOMe BIg DaWGz oN THiS RuN” all the sudden 

 

[snow_wizard]

The block is certainly more impressive at the base than the GFS was at day 3.5 or so.

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Interesting to see how GFS and EURO handle that initial little push of lower heights in comparison with the GEM.

Honestly that may be a good sign. The earlier runs of the GFS didn't handle the initial push like the 00z GFS and Euro are so far. This might be a good run.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Euro could still go either way at this point. Definitely some differences from the GFS already, but hard to say so far if they are positive or negative changes.

Block is much fatter and less amplified than the GFS at day 4. Probably won't produce snowfall anything like the GFS, but nice to see the block look that stout. 

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The block is certainly more impressive at the base than the GFS was at day 3.5 or so.

Definitely. But then it doesn't extend nearly as far north, so I'm not 100% sure whether or not this is a net win or not. Guess we'll find out over the next few frames here, lol.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[snow_wizard]

Looks like this run will be kold.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Impressive 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Definitely. But then it doesn't extend nearly as far north, so I'm not 100% sure whether or not this is a net win or not. Guess we'll find out over the next few frames here, lol.

The surface high block extends to the pole pretty early in the run.

[Deweydog]

Lots of predictions for the predictions!

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Definitely. But then it doesn't extend nearly as far north, so I'm not 100% sure whether or not this is a net win or not. Guess we'll find out over the next few frames here, lol.

At that point, it's better to not be amplifying north too quick. That's the fast track to losing the block and getting undercutting too soon to allow deep cold penetration.

[snow_wizard]

Very well balanced surface high complex.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Impressive 

Cold is extended on GEFS.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Euro is textbook for major cold.

[Slushy Inch]

This run may actually have the second shot. More troughing to the north.

[snow_wizard]

This run is going places IMO.

[SpaceRace22]

It's safe to assume that PDX can't handle any amount whatsoever of snow and cold, right? Seriously considering changing my flight from the 29th to the 28th if this keeps up. Dgaf about seeing the family, but I'll be heart broken if my flight gets cancelled and I get stuck down in this godforsaken wasteland of a state watching what's happening up there from afar.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

This run may actually have the second shot. More troughing to the north.

The base of the block is more robust as well.  Less chance of going wonky on us.