December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

In reality, it could get us and them similar to GHD storms I suppose..chatta on Amwx that the d10 EPS has "that look" of a major coming outta the 4-corner region..just sayin..ho ho ho! 

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

In reality, it could get us and them similar to GHD storms I suppose..chatta on Amwx that the d10 EPS has "that look" of a major coming outta the 4-corner region..just sayin..ho ho ho! 

That is possible. Major spot I am thinking though would be the GL's region, where the EC goes from heavy snow to rain and inland areas will remain all snow and through the Appalachian Mtns and ofc in our neck of the woods. Something to keep an eye on. Could be a heck of a storm. I am hoping others on here can cash into it as well, ofc.

[westMJim]

Just like Jaster220 earlier  stated the 2nd part of todays system is now well under way.  The Grand Rapids area has been getting light to at time moderate snow fall since around 1 PM not out of hand by any means but I now have 1.8" of snow in the 2nd round and a total of 3.3" for this system so far and now have 6.2" of snow on the ground here at my house.

[westMJim]

Whoops now getting a more heavy type heavy snow fall as per visibility. Visibility is now down to around 0.25 Miles. 

[jaster220]

Omadome FAIL??

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Surface36hr/r03_ICast.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Take a deep breath, wait a few more runs and watch for the southern storm again.

[Jaycee]

Oh man.

 

 

So this is weird but whenever the song 'What the hell' by avril lavegne came on, wed get a snowstorm right after. I swear to god, it literally happened for every snowstorm we had the past few years. It just came on for the first time in years. Its a sign boyz. Buckle up.

[OKwx2k4]

Oh man.

 

 

So this is weird but whenever the song 'What the hell' by avril lavegne came on, wed get a snowstorm right after. I swear to god, it literally happened for every snowstorm we had the past few years. It just came on for the first time in years. Its a sign boyz. Buckle up.

Should snow there on the 5th Thursday of this month.

[Minny_Weather]

Oh man.

 

 

So this is weird but whenever the song 'What the hell' by avril lavegne came on, wed get a snowstorm right after. I swear to god, it literally happened for every snowstorm we had the past few years. It just came on for the first time in years. Its a sign boyz. Buckle up.

Well, we're getting a clipper snow tomorrow. Maybe it'll overperform 

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

Signal is emerging for another digging trough to
drop through the Great Lakes on Tuesday into Wednesday, which will
lead to an increased chance of heavier precipitation and a cold
burst for mid-late next week. Snow chances increase once again.

[gimmesnow]

Oh man.

 

 

So this is weird but whenever the song 'What the hell' by avril lavegne came on, wed get a snowstorm right after. I swear to god, it literally happened for every snowstorm we had the past few years. It just came on for the first time in years. Its a sign boyz. Buckle up.

Avril Lavigne, Snow Goddess?

[Grizzcoat]

We are going to go the entire month of Dec with no measurable recorded snow.

That is impossible because it has all ready happened. The 6th had .1" reported at KOMA.

[attachment=15844:FireShot Screen Capture #046 - 'National Weather Service - Climate Data' - w2_weather_gov_climate_getclimate_php_wfo=oax.png]

[GDR]

East Coast gets hit hard this run. What a difference a day makes with the models!

[snowstorm83]

That is impossible because it has all ready happened. The 6th had .1" reported at KOMA.

 

Yep though LNK and even DSM are still at a trace.

[bud2380]

GFS might not be showing much snow, but it's showing extreme cold in the day 9-10 time frame.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121318/234/sfct.us_nc.png

[Andrew NE]

It is crazy to think that the ridge of death we had last winter somehow still allowed 11.4" of snow(I know no storms were significant, just nickle and dimers). We will get something eventually just may not be what everyone is looking for.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

And please for the love of everything stop posting 384 hr snow maps Are you serious?? Again coming from the guy that just put a 384hr GFS map out on the internet less than 18 hours ago.  Get all those "likes" Craig.    

I posted it for "fun" and I clearly stated that. People here at this forum take it like the word of God when they post it. 

 

And when I say theres a shot at no measurable snow this month, it is based off facts. If that northwest flow continues all these clippers will miss us because typically they do, its normal. 

 

So its the EURO :

 

 

VS the GFS:

 

[james1976]

I posted it for "fun" and I clearly stated that. People here at this forum take it like the word of God when they post it. 

 

And when I say theres a shot at no measurable snow this month, it is based off facts. If that northwest flow continues all these clippers will miss us because typically they do, its normal. 

 

So its the EURO :

 

 

VS the GFS:

 

Id bet on the GFS. Just seems like it wins out more.

[hlcater]

I posted it for "fun" and I clearly stated that. People here at this forum take it like the word of God when they post it. 

 

And when I say theres a shot at no measurable snow this month, it is based off facts. If that northwest flow continues all these clippers will miss us because typically they do, its normal. 

 

So its the EURO :

 

 

 

VS the GFS:

 

]

Fun sure. But public joe doesn't know the difference. So he drops his obligatory like and waits his 16 days for the 35" of snow that he was guaranteed. Only to find out, low and behold, he only got 5". Now he thinks all forecasters suck and never listens to any forecasts again and becomes the "mets get paid to be wrong all the time xDDDDDDD lololol" guy. All because some Facebook weather page likes to post irresponsible fantasy range maps that never verify. This may seem like it never happens, but trust me, it does, and way more than anyone here would like. Most people are too uninformed to know what they are looking at. Keep this in mind.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I've seen charts prove that the euro has a better track record this year but the GFS in my opinion has won big lately. I hope it changes.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Fun sure. But public joe doesn't know the difference. So he drops his obligatory like and waits his 16 days for the 35" of snow that he was guaranteed. Only to find out, low and behold, he only got 5". Now he thinks all forecasters suck and never listens to any forecasts again and becomes the "mets get paid to be wrong all the time xDDDDDDD lololol" guy. All because some Facebook weather page likes to post irresponsible fantasy range maps that never verify. This may seem like it never happens, but trust me, it does, and way more than anyone here would like. Most people are too uninformed to know what they are looking at. Keep this in mind.

Right, i probably shouldn't have criticized anyone here for doing it then. But its my page and most of my members are smart enough to know its fantasy.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Who's ready for the 0z models? Ready to have some good looking model runs.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GEM is back with the western trough. Now what it does after that is the big question. But good to see it back

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GFS coming back with a trough, it could look better but its better then a western ridge!

 

[NEJeremy]

Another huge fire. This one in the Black Hills of South Dakota. http://rapidcityjournal.com/news/local/at-acres-legion-lake-fire-now-third-largest-in-black/article_2cfc61b0-23c4-5e9a-a0f4-9c479bbed9fc.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=user-share

[Craig-OmahaWX]

WOW GFS is looking pretty great...starting to negatively tilt Christmas weekend;

 

[Andrew NE]

[Andrew NE]

Hot D**n, that was a good run.

[Minny_Weather]

Hot d**n, that was a good run.

Sure was. I'm fine with the dryness. Like I always say, snowstorms are pointless if we don't have the temperatures to keep it on the ground first. I like the trend with the cold temps. I'm also selfishly hoping there's nothing major snow-wise until the 28th cuz I'll be in California before then.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

So far so good tonight. Both the GFS and CMC were a step in the right direction. 12z ECMWF was as well.

[Hawkeye]

Models are pretty erratic later in the period.  Here is what JB had to say late this evening...

 

"GFS all over the place. Goes from Day 10 PV in lakes to Big ridge in east. Feedback fairy directs stream into the west. Next run may flip again, MJO and EPO argue eastward push though".

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Models are pretty erratic later in the period.  Here is what JB had to say late this evening...

 

"GFS all over the place. Goes from Day 10 PV in lakes to Big ridge in east. Feedback fairy directs stream into the west. Next run may flip again, MJO and EPO argue eastward push though".

Honestly, JB hasn't had the best track record lately either.

[Andrew NE]

Euro is developing a trough in the west.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

ECMWF looks very interesting, hangs the trough back west a little too long for my liking which could have potential to cut off completely, but I like where its going along with the other models.

 

[Snowlover76]

Those 0z runs

 

 

 

D**n.

[OKwx2k4]

6z NAM following suit...though beyond Hour 3; the NAM tends to have problems...which, of course, limits its usefulness, since Hour 3 is usually passed by the time it comes out...

 

This can be a problematic...

 

Bahahaha. I love it.

[Tom]

Overnight data continues to suggest the pattern change locks in for quite some time from this weekend and well into 2018.  Wow, can you believe the New Year is almost upon us?  On another note, last nights JMA Weeklies run concur with the GEFS/EPS/CFS Weeklies for Week 2 and one that certainly locks in the pattern change well into the first part of January with a La Nina flavor.  The predicted SE/EC ridge looks legit and if the Bermuda HP doesn't shift much, it would basically lock in a very active SW Flow storm track across the central CONUS.

 

Here are some maps...Christmas week is holding steadfast that there will be multiple systems to monitor and chances of a White Christmas are increasing.  00z EPS last night continues with a strong signal for a snow pack to grow across the central Plains/MW/GL's as well as the high Plains/SD region.

 

JMA Week 2 forecast shows cold and above normal precip for pretty much everyone on here...

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201712.D1312_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201712.D1312_gl0.png

 

 

JMA Weeklies Week 3-4 precip...

 

[Tom]

Dreaming of a White Christmas???  00z GEFS snow mean predicted on Christmas Day....oh, and here is the JMA's Christmas Day 500mb pattern.  This pattern screams an atmospheric river across the central CONUS.  I remember that parts of this year's LRC had a subtropical/pineapple express connection and with all that warm water off the coast of the Baja of California, if the forecasted 500mb maps verifty, there will be a deluge of precip coming into our sub forum.

 

 

 

[Tom]

If you get a jet stream pattern to carve out a trough that deep in the SW per 00z GEFS, you can almost guarantee a river of moisture streaming north along the boundary.

 

 

 

 

Notice where the warmest waters are near the Baja...bath tub water....

 

[Tom]

After looking back at maps from late Oct into early Nov, you can see the similarities that are showing up for our Week 1-2 500 mb forecasts.  Each 30-day harmonic cycle is NOT exactly the same, but from my experience, I noticed that as we get deeper into the winter months, these mini cycles become more amplified compared to the previous one, as well as, there are different influences.  Let's take a trip back into the past and when a deep central CONUS trough developed for the last week of Oct and into Nov.  I knew this would cycle back later in December and now I'm more confident than ever that this is likely to happen.  So, here we go...

 

Here is the 500mb mean back in late Oct...several things to notice: 1) Greenland block  2) Alaskan Ridge  3) Central CONUS Trough

 

 

 

 

Now, approx 60 days later, 00z GEFS painting a similar tune...although, there are different influences, for instance, no Greenland Block and a stronger Bermuda HP.  This pattern should lock in for at least 2 weeks starting next week so get ready for a fun period of tracking storms through the holidays!