PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like it might be a streetlight staring event in Tacoma:
 

Was that a flake?  I think I saw a flake. 

No, I think it might be raining. 
 

No, I think it’s snowing. Those are flakes. 
 

Hmmm… Actually I don’t think it’s doing anything. 

No, it’s definitely snowing…. I think…

Yeah based on the models we’ve just got to hope for a surprise it appears. Maybe we get lucky and get a little something. It definitely won’t be more than an inch here if it snows at all by the looks of it. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Kind of a weird weather situation right now. A stalled warm front is causing upslope precipitation in the central-north Sound, and this configuration appears to remain nearly identical until our cold trough swings in from the NW and allows the pattern to progress. But for now, the weather is essentially frozen in time for another 24 hours or so; same conditions, winds, and temps.

We had weeks of this in late January and early February 2018.   Randy and I remember it well.   3 days is nothing!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We had weeks of this in late January and early February 2018.   Randy and I remember it well.   3 days is nothing!

It's like being under a cold misting machine for days on end! Most would find that horrendous, but given how this isn't really melting any Cascade snow, and that it's not really uncomfortable outside, I actually find this to be a pretty nice weather pattern.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Kind of a weird weather situation right now. A stalled warm front is causing upslope precipitation in the central-north Sound, and this configuration appears to remain nearly identical until our cold trough swings in from the NW and allows the pattern to progress. But for now, the weather is essentially frozen in time for another 24 hours or so; same conditions, winds, and temps.

It’s quite ugly. Up to .51” on the day. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, MossMan said:

It’s quite ugly. Up to .51” on the day. 

A damp walk in the forest around your property would probably lift your spirits! Lots of little beautiful things to notice in the gray, still environment.

[Prairiedog]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dave Sallesky is not on board. 

None of the local mets are.  Hill was briefly.  Pierce, Nelsen, Sallesky, and Zaffino. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It hasn’t rained here in about a week. Of course we had some snow on Monday/Tuesday. 

[Cold Snap]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We had weeks of this in late January and early February 2018.   Randy and I remember it well.   3 days is nothing!

Yeah I normally get in on the drizzle as well in those types of setups. Was drizzling almost all day yesterday and this morning when I left.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Yeah I normally get in on the drizzle as well in those types of setups. Was drizzling almost all day yesterday and this morning when I left.

Up here in Bellingham it's dry... with bright sky to the west.   It's starts just to the south of here.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A damp walk in the forest around your property would probably lift your spirits! Lots of little beautiful things to notice in the gray, still environment.

I was outside getting soaked a bit ago dealing with an overflowing gutter and then remembered I needed to scoop the dog poop. I should have walked in the woods afterwards but needed to get back inside to continue cleaning the house. Oh I hope it snows…

Edited February 20, 2023 by MossMan

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A damp walk in the forest around your property would probably lift your spirits! Lots of little beautiful things to notice in the gray, still environment.

Drizzle machine is up running here! Going regional, baby!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Drizzle machine is up running here! Going regional, baby!

I thought it didn't precipitate down there.. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up here in Bellingham it's dry... with bright sky to the west.   It's starts just to the south of here.

When did you move to Bellingham?

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

When did you move to Bellingham?

Visiting parents.

[Perturbed Member]

46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Boom!

Precip will likely spread further north than this IMO. Pretty much always happens that way. The very sharp cutoff just north of Washington county looks a bit suspect. 

18z Euro did shift the bullseye further south, will be curious if the 00z stabilizes or if further south becomes a trend. 

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I thought it didn't precipitate down there.. 

Haven't seen Joshua in Lake Oswego in awhile......

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Precip will likely spread further north than this IMO. Pretty much always happens that way. The very sharp cutoff just north of Washington county looks a bit suspect. 

18z Euro did shift the bullseye further south, will be curious if the 00z stabilizes or if further south becomes a trend. 

This isn’t really the kind of setup with a precip shield from WAA. Looks mainly frontogenic with enhancement due to some localized deformation and upslope assistance. Doesn’t mean it couldn’t set up further north, but the dynamics don’t suggest the typical rightful assumption that precip will sprawl a bit more than modeled.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Deweydog

[Sandy rocks]

Dave Salensky never has anything good to say about cold and snow. He has a strong cold bias. It's off-putting that none of them are onboard with snow. I hope that changes.

[The Cats Meow]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This isn’t really the kind of setup with a precip shield from WAA. Looks mainly frontogenic with enhancement due to some localized deformation and upslope assistance. Doesn’t mean it couldn’t set up further north, but the dynamics don’t suggest the typical rightful assumption that precip will sprawl a bit more than modeled.

It doesn't look like the Low is going to wind up and spin things into Washington in a South to North pattern.  The low just drops down the coast and the goodies and moisture coming off the ocean looks to hit mainly Oregon and Northern California.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phil was mentioning how DC could have a high of 80 on Thursday, right as we likely see our coldest day of the cold snap, and I found that I interesting. I figured 80 had to be an all time February high for them out there but I did some digging and it appears they’ve been as high as 84 in February, and even 79 in January. Just insane.

Yup.  We only excel at heat and dry wind. Everything else requires an equity line of credit on your soul.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Haven't seen Joshua in Lake Oswego in awhile......

Which is interesting because we are way behind in rainfall. 

[MossMan]

52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We had weeks of this in late January and early February 2018.   Randy and I remember it well.   3 days is nothing!

That was truly awful. 

[Phil]

EPS 850mb anomalies don’t compute (IMO) with the projected 500mb pattern. I suspect the EPS will trend colder beyond D10.

EPS 500mb vs Jan 1969 500mb. Just sayin’…

[Prairiedog]

6 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

Dave Salensky never has anything good to say about cold and snow. He has a strong cold bias. It's off-putting that none of them are onboard with snow. I hope that changes.

So does Mark more or less but it doesn't really matter whether our  bias is warm or cold.  It's our local climate.  It's what they see the models telling them and how their forecasts work out..  Our area IS a warm bias.  It's our climo.  Sad but true.  In borderline cases, 99% of the time, bet on the warm side.  that's why the ave snowfall for PDX is barely 5".  It' mght be less. 

I want cold and snow as much as anyone but sadly it's not how it works most of the time here.  If you track the accuracy of their forecasts (I can't say as much for Dave because I don't follow him all that much but from what I can tell, he's fairly accurate and we know about the Pin Ball Wizard, (not that I'm calling him deaf, dumb, and blind), but he's pretty darn spot on most of the time.  He understands the nuances here and the microclimates of our area better than anyone.  I wouldn't bet against him.  I do laugh when a few here say, Oh, he was wrong once in 2014.  Yea he misses once in a while.  Mother Nature doesn't care what any of our biases are.  Lets see if he modifies his forecast Monday.  It will be telling. 

 

9 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

Dave Salensky never has anything good to say about cold and snow. He has a strong cold bias. It's off-putting that none of them are onboard with snow. I hope that changes.

 

[AlTahoe]

6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phil was mentioning how DC could have a high of 80 on Thursday, right as we likely see our coldest day of the cold snap, and I found that I interesting. I figured 80 had to be an all time February high for them out there but I did some digging and it appears they’ve been as high as 84 in February, and even 79 in January. Just insane.

There's a bunch of 90's showing up in North Carolina which is astounding. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS 850mb anomalies don’t compute (IMO) with the projected 500mb pattern. I suspect the EPS will trend colder beyond D10.

EPS 500mb vs Jan 1969 500mb. Just sayin’…

Thanks for sharing Phil. Some reason I thought it was at odds with the GFS, but it’s actually lockstep! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

So does Mark more or less but it doesn't really matter whether our  bias is warm or cold.  It's our local climate.  It's what they see the models telling them and how their forecasts work out..  Our area IS a warm bias.  It's our climo.  Sad but true.  In borderline cases, 99% of the time, bet on the warm side.  that's why the ave snowfall for PDX is barely 5".  It' mght be less. 

I want cold and snow as much as anyone but sadly it's not how it works most of the time here.  If you track the accuracy of their forecasts (I can't say as much for Dave because I don't follow him all that much but from what I can tell, he's fairly accurate and we know about the Pin Ball Wizard, (not that I'm calling him deaf, dumb, and blind), but he's pretty darn spot on most of the time.  He understands the nuances here and the microclimates of our area better than anyone.  I wouldn't bet against him.  I do laugh when a few here say, Oh, he was wrong once in 2014.  Yea he misses once in a while.  Mother Nature doesn't care what any of our biases are.  Lets see if he modifies his forecast Monday.  It will be telling. 

 

 

I’ve always thought Dave was pretty decent. 

[Prairiedog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ve always thought Dave was pretty decent. 

The times I've checked his forecasts he's been fairly accurate.  Like Mark, he's been around a long time although not as long as Mark.  He has a pretty good handle on how our climo works in the WV, esp locally. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

The times I've checked his forecasts he's been fairly accurate.  Like Mark, he's been around a long time although not as long as Mark.  He has a pretty good handle on how our climo works in the WV, esp locally. 

Dave has actually been around longer than Mark. I don’t know when he started, but he was the morning guy on KGW in the early 90s. Now he runs with the geriatric crew they have on KATU. He’s kind of Dr No when it comes to lowland snow in the metro area, which is usually the accurate call. 

[Deweydog]

It came. And everyone got DRENCHED.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/19/us/lake-oroville-before-and-after-storms-climate/index.html

[Sandy rocks]

I can see your point about Dave Salensky and it is true that our climate tends to go towards cold rain rather than snow although there have been years that the opposite has been true.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Sandy rocks said:

I can see your point about Dave Salensky and it is true that our climate tends to go towards cold rain rather than snow although there have been years that the opposite has been true.

Are you misspelling his name on purpose?

[Phil]

39 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

There's a bunch of 90's showing up in North Carolina which is astounding. 

Would not surprise me if we see another temperature spike overnight Thursday ahead of the cold front, maybe up to or exceeding the afternoon high temperature. Downsloping westerly winds at 850mb increase to 60+kts on the lee side of the terrain after sundown, and may deepen the BL/mix to the surface ahead of any cool advection.

Something like that happened a few years ago in the dead of night. Strong downslope winds mixed out the nocturnal inversion and we spiked from 37°F to 65°F in less than 5 minutes. And the gusts were ferocious.

[Prairiedog]

3 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I can see your point about Dave Salensky and it is true that our climate tends to go towards cold rain rather than snow although there have been years that the opposite has been true.

True but just look at our averages, both temps and snowfall.  There's always the exception but not the rule.  PDX average temp for January is 47/37 and annual snowfall is barely over 4".  It's just not in our climate DNA.  Sure, every few years we get a good dump and you do better than most of us at your elevation.  Those every once in a while great snows don't define our climate here.  It is indeed hard on us lowlanders here when we wishcast so hard and try to "will" the models to give us something good.  It's a rough place to play. 

[Gradient Keeper]

36 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It came. And everyone got DRENCHED.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/19/us/lake-oroville-before-and-after-storms-climate/index.html

It's CNN, so it's not a biased article at all. Bunch of ass hats. Of course it has nothing to do with the fact that demand is simply too high. The desert southwest and its resources were not designed to support millions and millions of people.

[joelgombiner]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It's CNN, so it's not a biased article at all. Bunch of a** hats. Of course it has nothing to do with the fact that demand is simply too high. The desert southwest and its resources were not designed to support millions and millions of people.

Many things can be true at once. Too much water demand, natural periods of drought, and human-caused climate change are all relevant factors. Writing about it in a nuanced way is difficult, and unlikely to drive the engagement that CNN needs to exist. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Which is interesting because we are way behind in rainfall. 

I have commented a couple of times about it on Mark’s blog. Trying not to be as much of whiner anymore. Suffice to say, I have been extremely disappointed with our weather since early January. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thanks for sharing Phil. Some reason I thought it was at odds with the GFS, but it’s actually lockstep! 

So we are going to have another arctic blast around March 5-7?    Could happen.   It will be interesting to see if the EPS goes in that direction soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

So we are going to have another arctic blast around March 5-7?    Could happen.   It will be interesting to see if the EPS goes in that direction soon.

Uhhhh… didn’t he post the eps.

[Deweydog]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are you misspelling his name on purpose?

I think it’s Zalinsky. He makes weather forecasts for the American working man…