January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, the EURO EPS trended in the right direction. The 12z Control run shows an Arctic Blast with a regional snowstorm. Onto the 18z runs this afternoon and 00z runs tonight. Think Cold and Snow! ❄

 

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Nobody say a goddam thing!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think it was like 1/17 2011 maybe?

 

2012. I had 21" of snow that day. 

[Timmy]

2012. I had 21" of snow that day.

You are right! That was an insane night. I bet There was 18” at least at my house now. I loved in town and got 11” then

[TT-SEA]

You are right! That was an insane night. I bet There was 18” at least at my house now. I loved in town and got 11” then

 

 

Please keep details of your tawdry affairs out of this forum please.  

[Deweydog]

You are right! That was an insane night. I bet There was 18” at least at my house now. I loved in town and got 11” then

It is better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all.

[GHweatherChris]

Please keep details of your tawdry affairs out of this forum please.

I haven't stopped laughing since I read his post.

[Requiem]

You are right! That was an insane night. I bet There was 18” at least at my house now. I loved in town and got 11” then

 

Oh, did you now? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Control run really did go nuts again...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 was decent. 

[ShawniganLake]

If I had a dollar for every time the Control run showed a cold pattern. It’s like the FV3 of the Euro

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is coming in wicked cold for the upper midwest. 

[Kayla]

This run is coming in wicked cold for the upper midwest. 

 

468mb thickness...brrr.

[Esquimalt]

18Z GFS looks to be coming in for a blast at 300 hrs. Come on lets go!

[ShawniganLake]

18Z GFS looks to be coming in for a blast at 300 hrs. Come on lets go!

I’m thinking not

[MikeInEverett]

Don’t think the 18z is gonna get there.

[Kayla]

18Z GFS looks to be coming in for a blast at 300 hrs. Come on lets go!

 

Pacific energy is going to keep it well north of the border.

[Esquimalt]

Pacific energy is going to keep it well north of the border.

Still gives VI and puget sound a snowfall.

[ShawniganLake]

Bitter cold in BC interior. At least it’s close.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Gradient Keeper]

18z the initial trough was colder. High pressure over southern BC Day 7-8 1045mb compared to 1038mb 12z. Gusty to strong east winds. After day 8-9 things become messy. Anything after Day 6-7 though the GFS Op is garbage. so no point focusing on details outside of the Day 3-7 mid-range.

 

The initial ridge is already offshore and meanders the next 36-48 hours, but it intensifies Day 2. Day 3-5 how the Aleutian energy is handled or held back plays heavily on when the first ridge merger occurs at Day 5 to 5.5. That then will determine exactly how chilly or not the first cool shot/trough is dropping out of BC. I will say IF the energy is held back just a bit further we could see a pretty good backdoor cold shot Day 7-9.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS looks very cold. For SE Alaska. 

[Kayla]

Still gives VI and puget sound a snowfall.

 

Threading the needle at 324 hours!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn't call this run a step backwards. Interested to see the ensembles. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Nobody say a goddam thing!!!

It is so far out that I am sure we will have forgotten about it.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Esquimalt]

Ensembles showing the trough on the 28th much toned down.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[ShawniganLake]

Ensembles showing the trough on the 28th much toned down.

Block merger/ retrogression looks pretty good around day 11/12 though.

[Esquimalt]

Block merger/ retrogression looks pretty good around day 11/12 though.

Yes, I would say some appreciable ensemble improvement.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, that winter was completely freezeless in downtown Portland. Downtown Vancouver managed 11 freezes that year, which is probably a decent proxy for how PDX would have fared.

Not the modern PDX.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall not huge ensemble differences between 18z and 12z.

[Bryant]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not much temp spread today. 41/38 with current temp of 40. 0.64" of rain. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Really nailed it with this post. After all, no one is here to analyze the models and look forward to potential time frames of cold and snow... that would just be pointless, wouldn't it?

2008 was a carrot at some point.

[snow_wizard]

The parallel looks excellent on the 18z once again.  There is some real potential with this.  We have the right players in the right general areas.

[Bryant]

2008 was a carrot at some point.

I'd love a 2008 right about now. A 1996 would do as well

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My son got me a drone for Christmas and I've been having a blast with it up here at my property. Really amazing to watch the videos after a flight but today i crashed into the top of a 100ft tall tree and i had to sit there for 30 minutes and shoot at the limb with my ar 15 untill i blew the branch in 2 lol.

[snow_wizard]

My son got me a drone for Christmas and I've been having a blast with it up here at my property. Really amazing to watch the videos after a flight but today i crashed into the top of a 100ft tall tree and i had to sit there for 30 minutes and shoot at the limb with my ar 15 untill i blew the branch in 2 lol.

 

Lucky you didn't hit the drone!

[snow_wizard]

The parallel really delivers for WA in particular.  Wicked Fraser outflow, very cold, and snow.

[snow_wizard]

Really nailed it with this post. After all, no one is here to analyze the models and look forward to potential time frames of cold and snow... that would just be pointless, wouldn't it?

 

The thing is the favorable progression is well within day 10 now.  That's why it's a bit more exciting.