Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[gosaints]

Could go for a last minute jog north...

[Niko]

Today is when models will have a better understanding in how this storm will evolve, especially later this afternoon. Lets see if the storm will phase or not.

[Stacsh]

Could go for a last minute jog north...

 

I could as well, but this isn't the storm for mid-michigan.  Beginning of December to now January 17th!  with 0 snow cover.  Is that a record WESTMIJIM???  Unbelievable for here.  

[Tom]

On my phone for the entire day, but wow, NAM goes bonkers for Chitown! It even develops a meso low on Sun. Crazy run.

[Clinton]

12Z NAM with Kuchera.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011712/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[jaster220]

Interesting development per the 12z NAM as it tracks across the S MW. Rather than shearing out it looks like it’s intensifying thru Hr48.

 

Let’s see if the others show better phasing like the NAM is starting to show. Gets down to a 997mb storm in W KY at Hr54.

 

Goes slowly into KY gets down to 996mb but gains like zero LAT? Seems h*ll-bent on being an IN/OH storm and missing me with the good stuff (defo band)

[james1976]

12Z NAM with Kuchera.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011712/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

My God. This thing isnt letting up at all. This run gives me a foot.

[Tom]

Goes slowly into KY gets down to 996mb but gains like zero LAT? Seems h*ll-bent on being an IN/OH storm and missing me with the good stuff (defo band)

Both NAM’e trending favorably for our region. Looking good buddy.

[Tony]

12Z NAM with Kuchera.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011712/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

I'm still not backing off the idea of local areas around LM see 12"+ from this system. One of the better setups we have seen on the western shores for some time now and it could rival those. Nam has been showing 24hrs of pure LES for a couple runs now and you have to add to this lake enhancement which will add to this equation. Really getting jacked for this event

[james1976]

Do you guys think those Kuchera maps are possible? DMX was saying at least 20:1 ratios.

[Tom]

I'm still not backing off the idea of local areas around LM see 12"+ from this system. One of the better setups we have seen on the western shores for some time now and it could rival those. Nam has been showing 24hrs of pure LES for a couple runs now and you have to add to this lake enhancement which will add to this equation. Really getting jacked for this event

Lock and load! Now we just need it to verify.

[gosaints]

Do you guys think those Kuchera maps are possible? DMX was saying at least 20:1 ratios.

Probably slightly over done.  It takes perfections to fluff that much for the duration of the event.

[Tony]

Do you guys think those Kuchera maps are possible? DMX was saying at least 20:1 ratios.

Those ratios are hard to come by but not out of the question. A good middle road I think would be 15:1

[Tony]

Lock and load! Now we just need it to verify.

Yea, nothing is guaranteed but the current runs are favorable and heading in the right direction. If it continues then we should be golden.

[westMJim]

I could as well, but this isn't the storm for mid-michigan.  Beginning of December to now January 17th!  with 0 snow cover.  Is that a record WESTMIJIM???  Unbelievable for here.  

Yes, from December 1st to today the total snow fall here at Grand Rapids is just 4.4" and there has just been 1.2" this January so far. The most snow on the ground this month at Grand Rapids has been just a trace. The most on the ground in the last 48 days has only been 1" and that has only been on 5 days. This is the least amount of snow here in recorded history from Dec 1 to January 17

[Hawkeye]

This is why you can't lock in any nam run.  It's just too inconsistent.  The 12z is a big step back for central Iowa.  While central to sw Iowa goes from wet pocket to dry pocket, far southeast Iowa into northern Illinois goes from dry to wet.  It's impossible to buy it when it fluctuates so wildy.

[Minny_Weather]

I like how the NAM keeps getting wetter but offices dont seem to buy it. Be funny if that model won out.

It won out last weekend lol. Any office would be stupid to 100% discount it.

[Clinton]

Lock and load! Now we just need it to verify.

Congrats this looks huge for you, and LES on top of it!

[Stormhunter87]

This is why you can't lock in any nam run. It's just too inconsistent. The 12z is a big step back for central Iowa.

And Omaha.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

6z nam was a big fluke run thats all i can say. The amounts were ungodly but came back to there senses. Oh well, it was a fun 5 minutes of wishful thinking! Haha

[james1976]

Yeah that LES signature keeps showing up. Chi town gonna get slammed!

[Stormhunter87]

It won out last weekend lol. Any office would be stupid to 100% discount it.

Yeah the nam has done very well here this year. So not sure what to think yet.

[erburns18]

I like that I'm on the Iowa side of the river . The system is running from Craig

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Fun fact....I know the guy real well who made the kuchera ratio. His name is Evan, lives here in Omaha and works for the Air Force Weather Agency at Offutt AFB. Nice guy

[Hawkeye]

Initial impression of the ICON is not good at all.... just keeps shooting the system through more quickly, now has the initial fgen band way up in far northern Iowa.

[gosaints]

RGEM is again gonna be the northern end of the envelope.  Chi-town does well

[badgerwx]

Really praying for a big dump here in far SW Wisconsin. Come on!

[james1976]

Really praying for a big dump here in far SW Wisconsin. Come on!

You're looking good

[Stacsh]

Yes, from December 1st to today the total snow fall here at Grand Rapids is just 4.4" and there has just been 1.2" this January so far. The most snow on the ground this month at Grand Rapids has been just a trace. The most on the ground in the last 48 days has only been 1" and that has only been on 5 days. This is the least amount of snow here in recorded history from Dec 1 to January 17

Thanks,  2012 and 2016/17? seemed bad, but not this bad. 

[Money]

RGEM is again gonna be the northern end of the envelope. Chi-town does well

Wagons North?

 

Bump North on gfs again

[gosaints]

Wagons North?

 

Bump North on gfs again

The fronto band is generally the last thing that models latch onto.  We shall see.  Would love to be in northern iowa

[Stormhunter87]

GFS looking strong for SD, southern MN, and northern IA

[Hawkeye]

So far this morning, every model has been a step back for Cedar Rapids.  We may have to settle for 0.25-0.35" qpf.

[St Paul Storm]

Wagons North?

Bump North on gfs again

Same with the GEM. Stronger and north. Gosaints and you might need shovels after all.

[Hawkeye]

12z FV3 is terrible.... worst run so far, huge dry moat across Iowa,

 

[gosaints]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011712/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[badgerwx]

DVN issues WSW

[james1976]

TC getting in on it

[GDR]

I’m not getting too excited until I see what the king says

[Stormy]

This would match up with the Dec 1st storm that created a blzzard across the mid section. Northern parts of Nebraska and parts of South Dakota were in a blizzard warning; my area was in a winter storm warning. I ended up with 5" of snow from that system. As far as using the LRC, you can only use it to get an idea when storm systems will be around; the cycle and pattern repeats but its the same but different. The next time around each cycle brings different seasonal differences compared to the previous cycle in terms of the storm systems.

 

Thanks for your & anyone else’s input!