Guest Sounder Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Heads up for some of the older members here.Don’t be dicks to the new folks coming in. Don’t be dicks to the Mets that are lurking. Don’t be dicks to other people just because “that’s how you are”.Wouldn’t it suck to be banned just because you thought you would get a laugh for calling someone out?I'd fully support a zero tolerance ban policy for people being rude to new members. If you're a proven idiot who's been posting here long enough to know better, then fair game, but we absolutely want to be welcoming new people who want to contribute. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PragmaticPanda Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 We should probably make a game plan in case this thing falls apart. Suicide Helpline1-800-273-TALK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 A classic heavy snow pattern would feature a 1 or 2 day warm up and then back to cold. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 This doesn’t smell like something that gets undercut. If anything I get the feeling it’ll be some sort of split/retrograde sometime later next week.That sounds...like a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Light east winds seem to be starting up in east Vancouver. 35 currently and partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 A lot of rime ice up in Salmon Creek earlier this morning. That is rare to see around town. Some cool formations. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The NAM is showing its cold bias. 516 thickness line in Southern Oregon by hour 78. Either that or this is going to turn into a full on arctic blast. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 That sounds...like a good thing?Could end up with relatively mild SW flow either way. Hopefully roof collapses will be kept to a minimum. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 A lot of rime ice up in Salmon Creek earlier this morning. That is rare to see around town. Some cool formations. 73FA6A12-B538-4668-A9F7-E2B70ABF1068.jpeg Nice. There was a lot of freezing fog from Silverton to Woodburn this morning. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 And suddenly the ICON shows the Monday system... 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 18z icon now shows event monday like euro. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 NWS Seattle has removed any mention of rain for the EPSL zone forecast through at least Tuesday. Snow, snow showers, or a chance of snow is shown on every day from tomorrow night onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 A classic heavy snow pattern would feature a 1 or 2 day warm up and then back to cold.The warmer the snowier is what I always say... It may get too cold to snow but it can’t be too warm to snow. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 ICON drastically cuts snow totals for the North Sound with the next system. We'll have to see if the GFS follows suit. Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 A little bit of backtracking here but the snowstorm that hi the W. Wa this past weekend was actually named by the Weather Channel. And it's Lucian. That being said, I still think naming winter storms are stupid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 ICON drastically cuts snow totals for the North Sound with the next system. We'll have to see if the GFS follows suit.By how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 EPS only gives PDX 2 40+ highs in the next 15 days... Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The ICON has been a little more sparse on precip with the first system compared to the other models. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 EPS only gives PDX 2 40+ highs in the next 15 days...I’m assuming one of those is tomorrow. Maybe Friday for the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 By how much? The last couple runs were showing 6-7" in Skagit County and now are showing 2-3". To be fair this is what the Euro was showing as well so maybe it's just playing catch up. Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 GEM looks really aggressive with the first system for both SEA and PDX. 5-9 inch totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Drunkle looking slightly colder and snowier through hour 60. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 18z looks very snowy for the sound at hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 18z shows it starting as rain in the valley with temps below 35. I have a hard time believing it starts as rain. https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 How is the prospect of east wind looking for the PDX area Friday and Saturday? Are models missing some of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 I’m assuming one of those is tomorrow. Maybe Friday for the other? Yep. I just tabulated the monthly stats through the 20th if the EPS verified face value (Could end up warmer, but you have to think a colder solution than the mean is equally possible too.). Assuming a high of 39 today at PDX they would have an average high/low of 38.3/26.5 through the 20th, for a mean of 32.4. The coldest February on record at PDX was 1956 with a mean of 35.8. There have only been 5 Februaries with a mean below 40 at PDX (1938-present.)! Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 18z looks very snowy for the sound at hour 66. Yep. Low is a bit closer to the coast. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The bold is back for me. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Starts as rain, lands as ice.Temps pdx metro look like 33-35 with 31-32 South of Wilsonville or so. https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 18z crushes the Puget Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 GFS is once again slightly colder. Appears to show snow all the way south to Eugene 4a-10a Saturday. Previous run had a finger of rain running north up most of the valley at that time. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 18z is great. Gets Portland involved earlier than other GFS runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olyman Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Yep. Low is a bit closer to the coast. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_11.pngNot liking that green finger up to Olympia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Coast might do well with this. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Oh My God 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Odd https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The outflow with this will be insane. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Winter is coming.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Yep. I just tabulated the monthly stats through the 20th if the EPS verified face value (Could end up warmer, but you have to think a colder solution than the mean is equally possible too.). Assuming a high of 39 today at PDX they would have an average high/low of 38.3/26.5 through the 20th, for a mean of 32.4. The coldest February on record at PDX was 1956 with a mean of 35.8. There have only been 5 Februaries with a mean below 40 at PDX (1938-present.)!Nice work. It’s funny, I actually haven’t seen 1956 come up too much in comparisons yet but that was another consistently cold February. I could easily imagine this month scoring a 37-39F average at PDX. And that is pretty conservative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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