February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is the biggest forecast as far as major impact in a long time. If the cold air holds or the low is a tad south the entire area is going to get hammered.

[Deweydog]

25 or 6 to 4.

I always sit cross-legged on the floor to view Euro snow maps.

[MikeInEverett]

It feels weird being the day before an event and not knowing if I’ll get 3” of slop then rain or 12” of snow all the way through the event.

[XLVIII43to8]

I’m pessimistically thinking we’ll only get snow briefly tomorrow in Seattle proper before switching over to rain all day

[North_County]

He must have got something. I got a foot to the west of him. Just across the border in BC I’m hearing 8-14”+ reports. It’s all around him

Where was the 8-14"? I got maybe 2 inches.

[runninthruda206]

I’m pessimistically thinking we’ll only get snow briefly tomorrow before switching over to rain all day

SAME. But im really hoping the Low surprises us!

[Requiem]

Radar says rain but it is still snowing. Gotta have at least 2 inches on the ground since 9. Cool stuff.

[Silverfin]

I sure hope ol’ brooding Bryant got some snow...

I think he's pleased, I know I am. Continuing to accumulate.

[GHweatherChris]

Tomorrow's system looks to be racing towards us!

[runninthruda206]

Tomorrow's system looks to be racing towards us!

 

if it gets here quick we can get some extra snow in before the mess begins!

[Jbolin]

God, the AFD is depressing.

[Requiem]

God, the AFD is depressing.

 

It's not that bad....

[MikeInEverett]

What if we all go out to the pacific and point a bunch of fans towards the south??

[jakeinthevalley]

25 or 6 to 4.

867-5309

[Jbolin]

It's not that bad....

Denial is not just a river in Egypt

[Deweydog]

Denial is not just a river in Egypt

Denial is not a river in Egypt.

[GHweatherChris]

Too bad tomorrow isn't a traditional overrunning event moving in from the SW.

[runninthruda206]

What if we all go out to the pacific and point a bunch of fans towards the south??

let me grab my jacket... ill meet you there

[Requiem]

Denial is not just a river in Egypt

 

Ridiculous. Maybe you'll get a bit less snow than expected, yes. But on top of all the snow today, and the snow on Friday and Saturday (as well as more upcoming chances), you'll at least get something. How do you think the people here in Washington County or the South Valley feel? They were expected to get inches of snow and have been left with a dusting at best. Enjoy what you are getting.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Up to 3.5" near the Britton Rd fire station in Bellingham, and sitting at 19 degrees  Measured about an hour ago and it was at 2.5"

 

Lots of blowing snow and just had a FWD car trying to back up the hill in front of my house.  

 

I shot a couple of videos but not sure how to post them

[GHweatherChris]

Ridiculous. Maybe you'll get a bit less snow than expected, yes. But on top of all the snow today, and the snow on Friday and Saturday (as well as more upcoming chances), you'll at least get something. How do you think the people here in Washington County or the South Valley feel? They were expected to get inches of snow and have been left with a dusting at best. Enjoy what you are getting.

So you get some snow and turn in to this, funny, lol!!

[Guest Sounder]

So you get some snow and turn in to this, funny, lol!!

The kid just needed some crack.

[Requiem]

So you get some snow and turn in to this, funny, lol!!

 

I get some. But it's just silly to say the AFD was "disappointing" because the snow totals have been lowered a bit. This is on top of a lot of snow in many areas.

 

edit: is something I said wrong?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The temp in Bellingham dropped big time. 21 now.

[Requiem]

The temp in Bellingham dropped big time. 21 now.

 

Well, perhaps all hope isn't lost!

[Jbolin]

I get some. But it's just silly to say the AFD was "disappointing" because the snow totals have been lowered a bit. This is on top of a lot of snow in many areas.

 

edit: is something I said wrong?

"A bit"?

 

Anyway, at least I and others can get a good night's rest now that a likely return to a normal regime is nigh.

[Deweydog]

I get some. But it's just silly to say the AFD was "disappointing" because the snow totals have been lowered a bit. This is on top of a lot of snow in many areas.

 

edit: is something I said wrong?

It is pretty funny seeing you of all people trying to appeal to people’s rationality.

[runninthruda206]

The temp in Bellingham dropped big time. 21 now.

 

 

was this supposed to happen? will it make it all the way down the sound?

[Requiem]

"A bit"?

 

Anyway, at least I and others can get a good night's rest now that a likely return to a normal regime is nigh.

 

NVM, I read the whole thing again and see what you mean. Didn't catch the whole "switchover to rain" part. Hope the low trends more south.

[Jbolin]

was this supposed to happen? will it make it all the way down the sound?

Likely not

[MikeInEverett]

06z NAM is ONE notch further south than its 00z run.

[joelgombiner]

If you want cold, Camp Muir at 9:00 PM was -1 with a 90 MPH wind gusting to 102 MPH 

 

10 Feb 9:00 pm -1 -3 88 -39 W 89G102   0 --

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=MU101&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

[bainbridgekid]

Been keeping my Facebook friends updated/amused with snow forecasts for the last 2 weeks and posted this earlier this evening. Pretty much sums up my thoughts on tomorrow:

 

****LONG NERDY WEATHER POST AHEAD*****

Tomorrow's forecast will be the hardest in my 15 years of weather forecasting. Just an incredibly complex storm system and a wide range of potential outcomes across the area.

 

What I AM confident of is that we will start the morning dry and cold (upper 20's and low 30's) and that heavy wet snow will move up through the Sound from South to North (starting in Olympia late morning and reaching Bellingham early evening.) I know we will have an ample amount of moisture falling through the night, with enough moisture for a very heavy 6-10 inch snowfall if it were all snow.

 

Unfortunately, what I am NOT yet confident of is exactly how long the cold air will be able to hold on before Southerly winds warm us into the mid 30's and turn us over to rain. I also don't know yet exactly where the rain/snow line will set up because models still disagree on exactly where the center of the storm will track and thus how far North the Southerly winds will reach.

 

What I think is the MOST LIKELY scenario is for Seattle South through Tacoma to get a heavy wet dump of ~2-4" of snow tomorrow afternoon and evening before turning to a cold rain late in the evening. Between about Seattle and Everett, I would expect 3-5" of snow before turning to cold rain closer to midnight. Everett to Bellingham may stay all snow into the day Tuesday, but will also have less moisture. Most likely a general 3-5" up here as well. West of Puget Sound, cold air will pool against the Olympic Mountains, so I would expect 4-6" of snow in Kitsap County and 6-10" along Hood Canal. This would lead Tuesday to be a very slushy day just about everywhere.

 

But what I just laid out is just the most likely scenario. If models are off by just 50 miles in the track of the center of low pressure, or the cold air is slightly more stubborn to be scoured out than modeled, we would be looking at much more wet snow rather than more modest snow followed by 35 degree rain. This is not the most likely scenario, but it is still possible. I will know more in the morning!

[Chewbacca Defense]

The temp in Bellingham dropped big time. 21 now.

 

 

That was a bit confusing for me, I've been at or below 21 since about 4-5pm, and the airport was still sitting at 31 as of 8:30.  I'm about 5-6 miles away to the SE as the crow flies (if that...probably more like 4-5), and am only a couple hundred feet higher....

[Tenochtitlan]

Heavy snow here, 4 inches on the ground. Awesome night!

[Tenochtitlan]

That was a bit confusing for me, I've been at or below 21 since about 4-5pm, and the airport was still sitting at 31 as of 8:30.  I'm about 5-6 miles away to the SE as the crow flies (if that...probably more like 4-5), and am only a couple hundred feet higher....

I'm pretty sure that was another sensor error. These other two stations, within just a couple miles of BLI in opposite directions from it, were 21-23 degrees at 8:30 PM.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=C9778&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=E9935&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

[runninthruda206]

06z NAM is ONE notch further south than its 00z run

interesting 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Good evening guys.  So just an update!!  I have a room booked for tomorrow through Wednesday at Government Camp.  Never been there with such a forecasted snow.  I have been at Snoqualmie pass one time when we got like 18" one evening.  This should be fun.

[bainbridgekid]

Not sure if it's been mentioned, but not only is this now the snowiest February on record at Sea-Tac, but it is also their 8th snowiest month ever and snowiest month period in 33 years.

[runninthruda206]

For what its worth

- models are not 100% on the direction of a low, even hours out

- we have seen shifts of 20-50 miles a day before

- mixing at all levels is always difficult to model and in my experience has either been overdone or underdone

- as much as some have been playing up the rain factor - sleet and freezing rain might be more likely if cold is stubborn or low a little further south

- I-90 north still will most likely add to their snow totals in most scenarios

- still cold after this and there are still chances to be had to add

- it can still snow at sea level in March

- the last time we had a Feb this snowy was 1949...

thank you for the optimism! We'll just have to wait and see how cold it gets tonight and what the models say tomorrow morning.