Phil Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 They did? Lol. What the hell are you spewing?The UJEAS was the worst imaginary model in history. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 You say that like it’s common..we haven’t had a derecho since 2016 and 3 out of every 5 winters has Right. He lives closer to the coast than you think K. It’s just when they do get a snowstorm it’s plastered all over the news 24/7. And if you weren’t in a weather forum you wouldn’t even hear of such derechos. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 December 2019 Justin sounds an awful lot like January 2019 Justin.Hey, if you want to bet on another historically flukish progression like last winter repeating a year later, be my guest. Probably won't happen again for awhile though. And I'm not even going so far as to say that this winter is a total no-show. Just that it would hardly be be surprising, and there aren't really any encouraging signs at the moment. And early speculation that it would be momentously blocky appears now to be inaccurate. I'd probably actually bet on at least one decent pattern emerging at some point, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Doesn't always work like that, though.I’d think the troposphere would be more receptive to a SSW this winter than last winter, if anything, since we have easterly shear downwelling instead of westerly shear. Whether that translates to a favorable pattern in the Pacific is debatable but it would at least increase the likelihood of Justin eating crow. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Rain is exciting? Lol.You have to remember how boring the lowland PNW climate actually is in winter, aside from the once-in-a-blue-moon cold and snow. Thanks to our maritime (Latin for toilet) temperature profile in winter, high temperatures rarely stray more than about 6°F from average. Actual heavy pounding rain is fairly infrequent. Inversions often put a damper on abnormal warmth events that don’t come from ARs (sorry, I don’t find 40°F with soupy fog and poor air quality interesting) until some point in early-mid March. There’s a reason why this forum gets excited over backdoor “blasts” that might deliver one or two sub-40 highs at best. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Hey, if you want to bet on another historically flukish progression like last winter repeating a year later, be my guest. Probably won't happen again for awhile though. And I'm not even going so far as to say that this winter is a total no-show. Just that it would hardly be be surprising, and there aren't really any encouraging signs at the moment. And early speculation that it would be momentously blocky appears now to be inaccurate. I'd probably actually bet on at least one decent pattern emerging at some point, though. I predicted modest, but respectable snow totals for SEA and PDX this winter. I'm not expecting a blockbuster winter, though I do think there are decent odds you get pretty cold at some point. Way too early to make judgements on the cold season...but it has certainly been blocky with a weak jet stream. Doesn't mean super cold, all the time. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 #pray4phil 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 I take it the 18z was epic!! It looked moderately interesting days 9-10. Cool with low snow levels. The CMC looked more interesting, though. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Looks exciting in Seattle. One of the many times I wished I lived there! Winds are picking up here though, so there’s hope for a stormy night!I can assure you nothing exciting as of yet up here in the south sound. Normal rain with some heavier drops here and there. wind calm.31 for the day so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 55F with occasional light rain. Most of the action is north. Feels balmy. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 The front will sag south at some point. Then it will turn into California again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 I must be in the eye of the Cat. 4! Just a few sprinkles and a little breezy! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 The front will sag south at some point. Then it will turn into California again. It will be splitting as it pulls through Saturday. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Over an inch here in north seattle and we are just getting started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 It will be splitting as it pulls through Saturday.No sheeit. That is what I was saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Getting warm nosed. 0.90" on the day tho at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Looks like the NWS is going with the GFS Hopefully that verifies because the 00z NAM came in way drier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 I’ll say it is nice to finally get some good heavy rain. I feel like we have been stuck in an inversion pattern with no sun or good solid rain. Is there any season when a split flow pattern is a good thing?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Up to .86" today. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Hopefully that verifies because the 00z NAM came in way drier. NAM will likely verify. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Leavenworth looks beautiful right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Looks like orographic flow is keeping the precip going at my place right now... Was in the low 60s and sunny here in NE Oklahoma today. Speaking of the 18z... It was pretty nice. Some ensemble noise around the 30th. Who knows. I still have some hope for January. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Over an inch here in north seattle and we are just getting started.Up to .08” on the day here! However my weather station is angrily flashing rain clouds so there is that! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Lol. The Portland dome is so ridiculous sometimes. Worse in Clackamas County. There is literally heavy flooding rain everywhere but Portland metro. It skips Portland and then orographic lift is soaking the mountains. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 We have picked up .46 so far and .77 since yesterday evening. Raining pretty good outside, temp shot up from 43 a couple hours ago to 50 now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 20 inches of melted snow has fallen here since 9 AM. Based on 10:1 ratio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Only .14” here so far. I’m being followed by a rain shadow, rain shadow, rain shadow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Looks like most places Salem to pdx have picked up .5 -.75” of rain so far. Future models will show less every time because a good chunk of rain has already fallen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Looks like most places Salem to pdx have picked up .5 -.75” of rain so far. Future models will show less every time because a good chunk of rain has already falle True Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Just had our best CFS run in about a week today. It was not great, but better than what it has been showing. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Toasty out. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Toasty out.Yep, up to 46. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 I'm hoping the wind forecasts pan out-- though I'm skeptical. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Days start getting shorter in just 6 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 54 at HIO. 55 is looking probable, wonder if we can crack 56+. NAM gets us up to 57. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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