Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Randyc321]

Doesn't look half bad for that other city just to the south as well.

Tacoma? Haha haha

[snow_wizard]

Is this type of pattern really a good snowmaker?

 

Very.  The best patterns feature a strong N to S temperature gradient like this one.  That allows low pressure systems to track just south of the cold zone and throw moisture over the cold air to the north of the low.  Obviously the cold air stalled too far north for Portland to do really well with this though.

[Requiem]

Tacoma? Haha haha

 

Yeah, Tacoma. The world ends at about Centralia-- nothing south of there 

[Front Ranger]

30 to 32mb of gradient through the fraser. That is insane and we are close to this time frame.

There's been a trend over the past day or so to strengthen the low and keep it further offshore. Will be interesting to see if that continues.

 

I suppose if it stays far enough offshore that could prolong the cold a bit.

[MossMan]

Down to 21 degrees and cloudy.

[Requiem]

Very.  The best patterns feature a strong N to S temperature gradient like this one.  That allows low pressure systems to track just south of the cold zone and throw moisture over the cold air to the north of the low.  Obviously the cold air stalled too far north for Portland to do really well with this though.

 

Ah. Just guess it was bad luck for the third year in a row. Anyways, here's to another one in February!

[SouthHillFrosty]

WRF gives Puget Sound a big storm as well-- gives Portland zilch though.

Could you post it pls?

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Lightly snowing in Poulsbo.

[bainbridgekid]

Nice little snow shower just popped up near the King/Snohomish County line.

 

Friends in Shoreline said it turned the street white in about 5 minutes.

[Requiem]

Could you post it pls?

 

Sorry...don't know how to post it directly from the UW site.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You don’t believe the 30 cm the HRDPS and RGEM are throwing out there?

 

It's not out of the realm of possibilities, but we'd need to see that band stall out. That said, at these temperatures we'll get far larger snowfall ratios than we typically do.

[FroYoBro]

Pdx has joined the 38 club with me. I feel so loved. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Coming down harder and accumulating now.

[AJ1013]

WRF has like 10" for Seattle!

[Requiem]

WRF has like 10" for Seattle!

 

Yep....just posted above. It's fun.

[Front Ranger]

Radar really blossoming around the Sound.

[wxmet]

Nice band developing over the Kitsap Peninsula moving ENE towards Seattle.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Very.  The best patterns feature a strong N to S temperature gradient like this one.  That allows low pressure systems to track just south of the cold zone and throw moisture over the cold air to the north of the low.  Obviously the cold air stalled too far north for Portland to do really well with this though.

 

Check out some of the temperatures up this way and in the Fraser Valley, this is a top tier cold airmass (at least relative to the last couple decades).

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS is PDX's only friend now

 

00z GFS radar simulation shows snow at Wed 10pm. Hoping the GFS is right and we all wake up to snow on the ground Thu morning.

 

[Requiem]

00z GFS radar simulation shows snow at Wed 10pm. Hoping the GFS is right and we all wake up to snow on the ground Thu morning.

 

 

You and me both.

[jakerepp]

Sorry...don't know how to post it directly from the UW site.

 

I’m sorry what now

That shows me under close to a foot

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Shoveled sidewalks white again.

[Blizzard777]

Radar really blossoming around the Sound.

You mean I can’t go to bed !

[Requiem]

I’m sorry what now

That shows me under close to a foot

 

Looks great for a whole lot of people! For personal reasons I'm rooting for the GFS though.

[seattleweatherguy]

Nice little snow shower just popped up near the King/Snohomish County line.

 

Friends in Shoreline said it turned the street white in about 5 minutes.

That’s prob headed my way

[Weiner Warrior]

Those are the Kuchera+ lala model totals. Never going to happen

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Check out some of the temperatures up this way and in the Fraser Valley, this is a top tier cold airmass (at least relative to the last couple decades).

 

I’m not sure I would agree with that. I’m reasonably sure Bellingham has seen single digits in the past decade, and it’s unlikely to get that cold in this event. The real top-tier cold snap is limiting itself to the BC interior.

[Weiner Warrior]

EPS Tim says nope. We need a conference call

[Blizzard777]

Nice little shower...I was so close to falling asleep

[HighlandExperience]

Nice little shower...I was so close to falling asleep

 

 

snow is a common cause for sleep apnea. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Down to 21 degrees and cloudy.

 

Been holding at 17 for the past two hours here.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Sorry...don't know how to post it directly from the UW site.

 

This is not from the WRF from UW like you think.

[MossMan]

My wife just asked if we were getting anymore snow. I said NOPE! The teleconnections were all wrong and that it will start warming up after tomorrow and no more snow. I took one for the team.

 

And if that actually happens I will have stepped up my game in her eyes!

 

A win win!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim told me on FB he thinks this looks pretty good and it might be catch Seattle NWS off guard. 

[Bham_Guy]

I’m not sure I would agree with that. I’m reasonably sure Bellingham has seen single digits in the past decade, and it’s unlikely to get that cold in this event. The real top-tier cold snap is limiting itself to the BC interior.

 

Been over 29 years since we've had single-digit temps.

[Thurston Howell III]

They will head north or northeast after coming around the south end of the Olympics.

Just hoping GH is not shadowed tonight.  Watching football game also.

[Weiner Warrior]

My wife just asked if we were getting anymore snow. I said NOPE! The teleconnections were all wrong and that it will start warming up after tomorrow and no more snow. I took one for the team.

 

And if that actually happens I will have stepped up my game in her eyes!

 

A win win!!

Good man!!

[kokaneekidz]

Those are the Kuchera+ lala model totals. Never going to happen

 

Never say never again. That is a surefire way to get burned. Anything is possible. Yet no snow is the easiest forecast when you are near the largest ocean in the world. Statistics

[umadbro]

Tim told me on FB he thinks this looks pretty good and it might be catch Seattle NWS off guard.

Ban him!!!

[OysterPrintout]

 

12z Euro looked decent but I heard 18z wasn't good.

 

Wasn't horrific but it's mostly been in the t-2" camp for a while now yeah?