July 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

The HRRR and other models have consistently been brining a nice line of storms into my area and the parts of Missouri that really need it.  It could be a very windy and stormy evening here if things go right.  Fingers crossed!

Love for Canada

 

[chescowxman]

It looks like most of the 90 degree temps yesterday across Chester County were in the lower spots under 500 ft ASL. Muggy today with some showers and thunderstorms possible late this afternoon into tonight. Tomorrow looks like the driest day of the weekend before rain chances increase again for Sunday.

Records for today: High 100 (1954) / Low 51 (1904) / Rain 2.98" (1928)

[Clinton]

Updated outlook from the SPC looks encouraging.  Seems Gary Lezak likes this part of the pattern to produce.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

 

There is an Enhanced Risk of severe T-Storms over eastern Kansas & western Missouri later today. This fits the #LRC as it is related to severe weather KC had on April 4. A disturbance is moving southeast from Nebraska. Keep your eye to the sky, as it may not stay dry!

[Timmy Supercell]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah DCA hasn’t dropped below 71°F this month to date. Heat indices peaked between 100-105°F once again today.

I had one outlier day with a low of 58, but I remember it staying above 70 through midnight-1am that night.. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Raining again this morning. Potential big storms this afternoon. The pattern that has delivered here for going on 2 months. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just put in a severe thunderstorm watch. Don’t remember being put in a morning watch in a long time. 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Euro looking pretty dry for the majority of the upper Midwest/Northern Plains over the next 10 days.

[OKwx2k4]

Rain winding down now. Appear to have picked up nearly 3 inches in the last 24 hours. Wow.

[Clinton]

 

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Just put in a severe thunderstorm watch. Don’t remember being put in a morning watch in a long time. 

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

A long-lived wind bag is organizing in southwestern Nebraska and heading for central l/eastern Kansas today. I am considering activation of storm chase mode in the Dominator 3. A #tornado or two is also possible

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

A long-lived wind bag is organizing in southwestern Nebraska and heading for central l/eastern Kansas today. I am considering activation of storm chase mode in the Dominator 3. A #tornado or two is also possible

Storms on my doorstep to the west. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning just issued. 

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Hey Mother Nature, why don't you give us a dose of this Blocking during NOV-DEC and give us a nice start to Winter this year???

 

Not a hard rule, but early cold/snow has been known to happen in Nino years.  It's even happened in super Nino years like 1997 and 2015.  

[Hoosier]

LOT has confirmed 11 tornadoes from Wednesday so far.

This was a good reminder that you can't automatically assume that afternoon clouds/rain will kill a severe threat (I had seen some comments elsewhere that were downplaying in the lead up).  It was cloudy/rainy well into the afternoon in Chicago metro.  Clouds/rain can kill a setup of course, but recovery is easier to pull off in some setups compared to others.  Each situation needs to be judged individually.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like we are going to get very lucky here. Very little wind and no hail, just heavy rain. I’m hearing that places southwest of me won’t be so lucky. 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Temp has dropped to 61 degrees with an east wind gusting over 30 mph. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but it feels cold, but awesome at the same time. 

[Iceresistance]

I'm under a Flood Watch again, what is this madness?

 

I'm already about to break the wettest July ever already!

[Clinton]

Severe storm baring down on Topeka right now.  Looks like the arrival may be earlier than expected.  Maybe some training of cells this evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued.

[Stormy]

Forgot to mention, but yesterday evening I did have a thunderstorm that died right over my community. Still got a nice downpour  of 0.17" with a beautiful full double rainbow immediately afterwards! No rain had been forecast  yesterday, but just so it made it down here.

Not sure if we'll see any storms today or not. They could suddenly develop and I see a few small cells developing up north. Cumulus clouds have been building here even with high clouds moving in so that might be a good sign. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1548.html

Edited July 14, 2023 by Stormy
Added SPC link.

[Tom]

46 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Severe storm baring down on Topeka right now.  Looks like the arrival may be earlier than expected.  Maybe some training of cells this evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued.

Good luck!  Sun is also looking interesting as well as next week...glad to see you finally going to cash in.

[Clinton]

Severe storms moving through the KC metro with 75mph winds.  If they keep their current trajectory they will reach mby in about an hour and a half.

[Clinton]

Some cool stuff from Lezaks twitter about the stormy pattern this week.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

 

As discussed in the previous tweet, today's risk was predicted by the #LRC as Kansas and Missouri had severe weather in early April in cycle 4. Chicago just got hit, and the LRC predicted that event as much as 247-days ago. Take a look! T-Storms are heading east now!

 

[Andie]

Hey Clinton, I’ll takes some of that off your hands!

102*. Feels like 110.  

[Clinton]

37 minutes ago, Andie said:

Hey Clinton, I’ll takes some of that off your hands!

102*. Feels like 110.  

Can't afford to share today lol.  Gotta get rid of this D4 drought.  Just had a 70mph gust come through, it knocked some limbs out of the trees in my yard.  The wind is still rocking about 40mph +

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Severe storms moving through the KC metro with 75mph winds.  If they keep their current trajectory they will reach mby in about an hour and a half.

Wife and I came down to kc today for a concert at the power and light. I thought I was going to get lucky and have the storm pass before I came into town. Not so much……. That was the hardest scariest drive I have ever had! We just got to our hotel and lightning must have hit somewhere because their lights went in and out but elevators are out. I had to carry our stuff to the 8th floor! Never want to drive thru that stuff ever again. Thought we would run into flash flooding but thank goodness nothing major. 

[Clinton]

Just now, gabel23 said:

Wife and I came down to kc today for a concert at the power and light. I thought I was going to get lucky and have the storm pass before I came into town. Not so much……. That was the hardest scariest drive I have ever had! We just got to our hotel and lightning must have hit somewhere because their lights went in and out but elevators are out. I had to carry our stuff to the 8th floor! Never want to drive thru that stuff ever again. Thought we would run into flash flooding but thank goodness nothing major. 

Lots of power outages in the KC area.  Evergy is saying it will be a multi day event to restore power.  Glad you guys are ok and get a nap after that 8 story climb. Yikes!!! 

Quote

 

 

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Can't afford to share today lol.  Gotta get rid of this D4 drought.  Just had a 70m gust come through, it knocked some limbs out of the trees in my yard.  The wind is still rocking about 40mph +

Topped out 103.  Heat index 109.  
Boiling out there.  Not a bird or a living thing seen all day, despite putting water out for them.  
I’m pretty sure we’re ready to see this run of Highs broken!

[Hawkeye]

Big ol' goose egg here today.  It was the most humid day of the year, but the front passed before the storms blew up.

[Puck]

Hey y'all, I live in the edge of Delaware County. Anybody know any info about the storms in this area?

[Iceresistance]

How is the storms up there @Black Hole @OKwx2k4?

[Andie]

Sunday High of 96. Brief reprieve.  
40% chance of rain.  
Then back in to the oven. 
“Pop Tarts!”

[Tom]

Day 3 with a TOR warned cell passing through the SW burbs… @FV-Mike  Was it by you?  I heard it touchdowned by West Chicago.  I’m looking to my SW and a vivid lightning show is being put up by Nature.  Wind is eerily calm.  No sounds of animals or crickets or anything!

[OKwx2k4]

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not a hard rule, but early cold/snow has been known to happen in Nino years.  It's even happened in super Nino years like 1997 and 2015.  

This is true. A "classic" hallmarker of a Niño even down here is an early, cold autumn. 

[OKwx2k4]

Still rolling with the rainfall. I'll post 7 day total after this event is over.

[Tom]

Awesome storm!  Wild winds and torrential rains.  I’m just southeast of the word Arlington “heights”…very strong front end winds.  Wish I could be outside under a structure to capture some video.

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Big ol' goose egg here today.  It was the most humid day of the year, but the front passed before the storms blew up.

Its very odd to me (being from east originally) how cold fronts can pass thru on very hot humid days at peak heating  and be a total  dud!! Front was over me at 4 pm.  Barely a cloud.  It literally  does  this 90% of fronts  here. But same fronts blow up near or east of miss river. Ive learned  that a west to east moving cold front is pretty much useless  in se iowa in summer. It needs  to be  west to east oriented sagging or wiggling near ia mo border.  Most of my rain comes in 4 to 8 am timeframe. Decaying  mcs.  But in colder months  precip hangs back behind cold fronts. I have my theories as to why these differences  exist  in iowa as opposed  to further east.

[OKwx2k4]

Heat indices are stupidly high tonight in areas that did not benefit from last evening's and this morning's storms.

 

[OKwx2k4]

7 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

How is the storms up there @Black Hole @OKwx2k4?

They were strong, but nothing real nasty. Tons of rain. 1" per hour plus.

My scion was a Toyota Puddle Jumper on my way to work. I think I just hydroplaned my way through it. Lol.

To you folks who keep dropping hints about winter.....

Ya'll keep enticing me but I'm trying to be good this year.

[westMJim]

Today is the halfway point of Meteorological Summer. At Grand Rapids the sunrise/set time today is 6:18 AM/9:21 PM. The current 30-year average for today is 83.4/62.7 for the 15-year average it is a warmer 84.3/63.5. Starting on July 22nd we start the slow downward trend and head towards winter.

At Grand Rapids the warmest 1st halves of meteorological summer were 1919, 1933, 1921 and 1934. In 1919 the 1st half seen 14 days of 90 or better. The high was 97 and the low was 49. In 1933 there were also 14 days of 90 or better and the high was also 97 the low the 1st half was 42. In 1921 there were 22 days of 90 or better in the 1st half and the highest reading was 100 and the lowest was 41. In 1934 there were 16 days of 90 or better in the 1st half the highest was 102 and the lowest was 52. The coldest 1st halves were 1958, 1945,1915 and 1947. In 1958 there were 0 days of 90 or better 6 days with highs less than 70 the high was 88 and the low was 37. 1945 there were 0 days of 90 or better 14 days of less that 70 the high was 88 and the low was 32. In 1915 there were 0 day of 90 or better and 10 days of less than 70. The highest was 88 and the lowest was 41 and in 1947 there were 2 days of 90 or better and 8 days that had highs less than 70 the highest was 91 and the lowest was 38. Note that on the warmest side that 1936, 1988 and 2012 were not on the list and on the cold side 1992 was not on the list So far this meteorological summer there have been (officially) 7 days of 90 or better. There have been 2 days of 70 or less. The highest is 91 and the lowest is 47. For the warm season so far (since mid-May) there have been 9 days of 90 or better at Grand Rapids and Lansing, a whopping 10 days at Muskegon (with a lot of east winds) 7 at Holland to the east at for the warm weather season so far Detroit and Flint have had just 2 days of 90 or better and Saginaw has had 4. Here is a fun fact at Grand Rapids so far this meteorological summer there have been 28 HDD’s that is -10 below average and there have been 249 CDD’s that is -17 below average. At Detroit there have been 19 HDD’s that is -9 below average and 263 CDD’s and that is -38 below average. So all in all at both Grand Rapids and Detroit the energy used so far this summer is below average at this point in time.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids for yesterday was 84/59 there was 0.04” of rain fall before midnight (here in MBY I recorded 0.64” as of 5AM. There was 30% of possible sunshine yesterday and the peak wind gusts was 26 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 95 was set in 1995, 2006 and 2013. The record low of 47 was set in 1987.

[Tom]

Thank goodness I did not loose my power last night bc at one point those winds were bending the tops of the trees with some force.   My cousin who lives a few miles south of me lost power as the storm blew in.  This has been a hellova stretch of active weather since I made my trip back from AZ on Father's Day.  ORD is much above normal to date (+4.17"), I think MDW is Top 3 wettest July on record.  The number of TOR was increased to 13 yesterday on July 12th!  Since when has the Chicago area been the TOR magnet??  I'd much rather have the #BlizzardMagnet...

 

[Clinton]

17 minutes ago, Tom said:

Thank goodness I did not loose my power last night bc at one point those winds were bending the tops of the trees with some force.   My cousin who lives a few miles south of me lost power as the storm blew in.  This has been a hellova stretch of active weather since I made my trip back from AZ on Father's Day.  ORD is much above normal to date (+4.17"), I think MDW is Top 3 wettest July on record.  The number of TOR was increased to 13 yesterday on July 12th!  Since when has the Chicago area been the TOR magnet??  I'd much rather have the #BlizzardMagnet...

 

That is quite the stretch of weather, the wind here and in KC was insane yesterday.  109,000 remain without power in KC as of this morning.  The active stretch continues tomorrow so far it has produced 2 inches of rain in mby, I only need about 8 more lol.  The GEFS for the next 5 days.