December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Idk as a long time lurker I've definitely noticed that the pattern of you shitting on the West Coasters' excitement and then getting rightfully told off is almost as predictable of a cycle on here as when tt-sea cherry picks the single warmest frame of the single warmest model and then puts on this weird, incredulous act of pretending that he is just being neutral and that he "always posts *all* solutions, both good and bad" when people get mad at him for it, lol

My brother, literally 90% of my busts are in the too-cold direction. It’s as consistent a bias as Tim’s. Would you rather it be 95%? Or maybe 99%? I swear sometimes I can’t win here no matter what I do.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve been so busy venting I didn’t look at the rest of the run. That’s one hell of a wavebreak and TPV dislodgement.

But now I’m afraid of giving any thoughts or opinions on it, so I won’t say a word.  

I need the balance, so hopes don’t get too high.

[AbbyJr]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

All the setups I’ve been bullish on over the years, no problems. But the one time I’m bearish, and suddenly I’m some evil troll that shouldn’t be allowed to post here? Haha.

Have you all ever known me to make a forecast based on my personal hopes and desires? That’s a recipe for failure.

You are not a troll. People just look for someone to blame when things don't go their way. We need to remember all the times when you were bullish for the PNW when everybody else was convinced winter was over. As I've said before, one thing I do appreciate about you is your lack of wish casting. You just say what you honestly believe will happen. That's the professional way to do it but even professionals sometimes get it wrong. But it's not like you don't have valid reasons to be skeptical this winter. It's a strong El Niño. What are people expecting? 1968/69 redux? Only in fantasy land.

[Anti Marine Layer]

25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

JANUARY 1998

That was El Nino too. 

[skywatcher]

SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW.

I think I've made it clear what side I'm on.

Please. I'm begging. SNOW.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

7 minutes ago, skywatcher said:

SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW.

I think I've made it clear what side I'm on.

Please. I'm begging. SNOW.

SNOWWWWW!

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Feel like a Wal-Mart, Panda Express, Dunkin Donuts, Nail Salon, Taco Del Mar, a Tae Kwon Do studio ‘n a N-N-Out would look great right about where that elk herd is.

Please gawd nooo! Fortunately all that land has already been snatched up by GVLT (Gallatin Valley Land Trust).

[Slushy Inch]

GEPS.

[Slushy Inch]

Looking good.

[Phishy Wx]

not bad birkwood

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Cold east wind and snow as well for PDX

 

 

Well if I get skunked I will be grateful for cold but it's not as fun.

I was looking at old photos of our son tonight and I just wish I could get a 2020-2021 winter at my location. That was the best here although not as great as 2019 when I was in Stanwood during the Snowpocalypse.

That 2020 winter was amazing here but I didn't know how to measure snow so I have no records.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

THATS A SUNRIVER TOUCHDOWN!!

Watch as Moses Lake still gets more than me lol. But that map would be infuriating if I lived there and it was closer.

[Skagit Weather]

5 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The record of 56 survives…so far. Tomorrow’s record of 54 is toast. 

You spoke too soon. Didn't quite take it down, but SEA tied their record with 56F at 9 pm. Back down to 55F, but still plenty of time if it wanted to go on a tear in the last hour of the day.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looks like 60-burgers for Medford and Roseburg tomorrow.

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

SNOWWWWW!

[Slushy Inch]

[westcoastexpat]

That GFS ops run saw the rest of the ensemble members and said let's go harder 

[Slushy Inch]

Control goes crazy in a different way than gfs.

[Meatyorologist]

The windstorm drought continues...

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

The windstorm drought continues...

Or will it?

[Dave]

2 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

THATS A SUNRIVER TOUCHDOWN!!

 

Looks like I'm gonna have to buy my snow from Doug, this guy I met at the liquor store.

[The Blob]

Still windy

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GFS ALERT!

[RentonHill]

59 degrees out. Unreal

[Ken in Wood Village]

6 hours ago, Doinko said:

Big freezing rain/snowstorm happening at the end

 

That actually looks like a blizzard. Because the East Winds would be blowing like crazy out of the Gorge 🌬🌨

[SpaceRace22]

06z GEFS alert

[TigerWoodsLibido]

45F and pleasant out there tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we a tracking more closely to 2014-15 which was one of the worst years ever for mountain snow.    I hope January turns this around and at least the mountains have a good month because I don't think we will be making up much ground in terms of snowpack from February - April this year.   

 

[TT-SEA]

58 degrees here this morning and dry... can see the moon through the clouds.   

SEA has already been up to 57 this morning which is a record high for the day... now at 56.

[AlTahoe]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like we a tracking more closely to 2014-15 which was one of the worst years ever for mountain snow.    I hope January turns this around and at least the mountains have a good month because I don't think we will be making up much ground in terms of snowpack from February - April this year.   

 

Also known as the year without a winter here. We hit 66F in Jan 2015 and for the first time ever the echo summit snow survey recorded zero snow on the ground on April 1st 2015.

The previous all time low snowpack was 33" in 1976

[TT-SEA]

NHL Winter Classic will be in Seattle on New Years Day.   They plan to have roof open at T-Mobile.    ECMWF shows a  partly sunny sky that day and dry with a temp in the mid 40s.   Will be fun to watch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have 60-burgers this morning! Wow it’s mild out there! @Rubus Leucodermis

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have 60-burgers this morning! Wow it’s mild out there! @Rubus Leucodermis

Jesse is going to puke.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have 60-burgers this morning! Wow it’s mild out there! @Rubus Leucodermis

Forget spring-like... low 60s before dawn would be a mild summer morning in your area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Jesse is going to puke.

Given our average low in July is 48, this is just obscene. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Forget spring-like... low 60s before dawn would be a mild summer morning in your area.

In the summer it only happens during the most intense heatwaves. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In the summer it only happens during the most intense heatwaves. 

Just checked stats in North Bend... July this year was very warm with 20 days at 80+ degrees and the coldest high temp of 70 but there was a total of 0 days with a low of 60+ degrees.

[Anti Marine Layer]

A high of 54 is forecast for Portland. Those 60s must be above the inversion. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

A high of 54 is forecast for Portland. Those 60s must be above the inversion. 

No inversion up here... its 59 degrees on the valley floor in North Bend and 57 at SEA.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

A high of 54 is forecast for Portland. Those 60s must be above the inversion. 

Funny side note... my phone alarm talks to me and tells me the current temp and projected high for the day and then goes into current news headlines.   At 5:30 a.m. it said "good morning its currently 58 degrees and the high today will be 52".