January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Dave said:

Hopefully, some moron parents will keep their kids from playing on the railings causing a fall and lawsuit.

Wouldn't this make them smart parents?

[GHweatherChris]

2 hours ago, SeanNyberg said:

Not you  You’re great!

I’m referring to those who like to dump cold (or warm in this case) water on everyone’s excitement seeing potential snow and cold. I find it reductive to constantly tell people snow is difficult and GFS is unreliable. It’s attention seeking behavior that should’ve been left on the grade school playground.

Keep posting your excitement. It’s fun to watch. The world needs more joy and enthusiasm.

Well said, unfortunately those that need to read this and take it to heart will read it and go, hmmm wonder who he is talking about, definitely not me............... 

[RentonHill]

ICON is running

[Darrington Troll]

Y’all are grasping - hope it turns up though. 

[BLI snowman]

59 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

When was the last time we had the best dynamics of the season perform in January? 2016-17? Even that winter had plenty going on in Dec and Feb.

Yeah, the mid December 2016 pattern was arguably as good from an upper level standpoint. 2019-20 probably peaked in October and March regionally.

Maybe 2012-13?

[Doinko]

46 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s snowed in Miami before. 

All time greatest post on this forum.

It’s not healthy to live your life in fantasy land either. Need a balance between realism and hope/imagination. 

Lots of westerly flow thanks to El Niño. Same reason it was so fukkin hot across the gulf states last summer.

Given how receptive the Strat/NAM is to wave driving this year, I’m not sure a major SSW/split is needed. But seems that may eventually happen regardless..we’ll see.

What do you think about the coming pattern? I enjoy hearing your thoughts

[Blizzard777]

Who’s the scary dude in the ridge!!!!???? 
Creepy

46/34 and currently 40

Precipitation zeroed out for the new year 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Darrington Troll said:

Y’all are grasping - hope it turns up though. 

Not really grasping when we have multiple model runs and even ensemble means getting good.

[Snownerd3000]

Less go! 

[Slushy Inch]

Biggest 0z run of the year!

[The Cats Meow]

Believe.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend) North America view

North Pacific view

[westcoastexpat]

3 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

How the hell is snow shown that far south in Mississippi

It's not unusual 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend) North America view

North Pacific view

[MV_snow]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not really grasping when we have multiple model runs and even ensemble means getting good.

Yeah, after that crap December with a raging Nino I would have signed up for an active and chilly pattern with mountain snow in Jan just a few days ago. Now I’m getting more greedy!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend) North America view. Do you want me to continue to post both views? or no? Helpful? Not necessary?

North Pacific view

[Kolk1604]

00z ICON 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend) North America view

North Pacific view

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (4-run trend) North America view. Do you want me to continue to post both views? or no? Helpful? Not necessary?

North Pacific view

It’s nice. I check on my own anyways though. The gifs are nice

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 (4-run trend) North America view

North Pacific view

I think just the north America view is good enough

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 (4-run trend)

That looks to be just a smidge colder.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 (4-run trend)

Clear and obvious trend to make things less progressive overall... Leads to better block in the mid-long range and closer/more readily available Arctic air when it shows up. This run might be another improvement.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

That looks to be just a smidge colder.

First trough is trending farther north and less baggy. Hasn’t changed temps much yet 

[Meatyorologist]

Actually looking at the way this run is evolving over the NPac into Canada, this might flip Arctic by day 7. BC is getting primed much earlier, and the ridge is looking healthier, with LW trough ejecting from the Aleutians coming in sooner and further south.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[MWG]

One of the local stations it's catching up on it. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here's another classic, created by Rob (Gradient Keeper).

Now to find our version of Michael Larson.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Larson

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (4-run trend)

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7 (4-run trend)

That stronger troughing in sw Canada is really encouraging 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meh  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Druncle says:

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Siwash Rock this afternoon.

[Dave]

My best friend, super dense foggy, has returned to give me a warm embrace.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

More gfs garbage. Just take away a low around hr 180 like nothing lol.  Gem is more consistent than this embarrassing model. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So far this run is a dud. 

[Timmy]

Arctic air is closer 7 days out like the 18z.  Much closer than the 12z

[Doinko]

GEM looks great

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Meh  

Ya I’m with you Andrew. Trough doesn’t dig as deep and the high in the goa is really pathetic. Run to run change is a given. Just wish it was for the better. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So far this run is a dud. 

The gfs just goes off the rails with any sort of consistent details at all. We all love to watch it but it's really one of the worst global models out there.