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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

Sunriver Snow Zone
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Posted by TT-SEA,

Its definitely coming.  
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Posted by iFred,

Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21. Try a mental exercise, close your eyes. Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov

Do this.

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Posted by iFred,

Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
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Posted by Meatyorologist,

Transferring to Part II at 5pm in ~10mins!

Important Note!

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SouthHillFrosty Grand Master

SouthHillFrosty

Posted
Posted
Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The amount of snow for Seattle and ice for Salem to PDX is going to be insane with this storm around hour 342. 🤣

Yea… another good storm for a couple hours up north also 

IMG_8215.png

IMG_8216.png

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Corncob
Corncob

Fine. I’ve been lurking here for years. I live in Shoreline and do hyperlocal forecasting for friends between the ship canal and Everett since about 2018. I also work with mutual aid groups to help ho

iFred
iFred

Last Warning Any political, political-adjacent, it-isn’t-political-when-I-know-I’m-on-the-right-side-of-history, or this-guy-was-a-fascist-neo-liberal-weak-will-reactionary-and-so-it-was-ok-for-m

iFred
iFred

Ok, while the Euro is running, I'd like everyone to read the following and then close their eyes and think hard about it. I know its weird hocus pocus stuff for some, but there is some science behind

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

Posted
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This is a holy sh*t GFS run. Wow!

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
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1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

WHAT IN THE ACTUAL **** ARE THESE NUMBERS, WOOOHOOO

image.thumb.png.52b07b2be13e443c6e0390a36469ced2.png

I feel bad for Salem only getting 7.3”, looks like 3-4’ here. 🤣

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
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This is the first full run I've looked at in a long time, this is also the most insane snowiest run I've ever seen for Western Washington.  If this happened it would be a disaster.  The over running event is a blizzard with 2 and 3 feet already on ground. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Phil said:

IMG_9106.pngIMG_9105.png

That’s legit. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sunriver Snow Zone Veteran

Sunriver Snow Zone

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Posted
Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel bad for Salem only getting 7.3”, looks like 3-4’ here. 🤣

Thinking the same thing. I'll just pick up the family from there and bring them up to Seattle for the real goodies.

Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated March 27th) 107"

Snow depth at my home (updated March 27th): none

23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated March 27th): 84"

 

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Phishy Wx Grand Master

Phishy Wx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is the first full run I've looked at in a long time, this is also the most insane snowiest run I've ever seen for Western Washington.  If this happened it would be a disaster.  The over running event is a blizzard with 2 and 3 feet already on ground. 

ain't skeer'd

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SpaceRace22 Mentor

SpaceRace22

Posted
Posted

That storm at the end of the run is so wacky for Portland, lol. The coldest temps of the whole run move in and Portland is making a run on single digits right as the precip changes from snow to sleet and freezing rain. I consciously understand why that's happening, but it just feels so counterintuitive to wrap my brain around. The Gorge creates one of the most interesting microclimates in North America, imo.

I wouldn't even mind the changeover that scenario. The mountains of snow will already be on the ground, and the lower levels will be so frigid that very little rain would probably make it to the surface still as a liquid to mess up our snow. If anything a little splash of wetness on top would help lock up our snowcover to be able to stick around for several days longer than if it stayed as perfect fluffy snow that melts easily.

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FrozenBites Collaborator

FrozenBites

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is the first full run I've looked at in a long time, this is also the most insane snowiest run I've ever seen for Western Washington.  If this happened it would be a disaster.  The over running event is a blizzard with 2 and 3 feet already on ground. 

This would be qualified as a "be careful what you wish for" run. Lol

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

FWIW, the CMC ensemble only made a modest move before D10. The GEFS is notoriously underdispersed so hard to know how much value it has in a threshold situation.

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
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Always nice to have at least one fun run a winter. Saved for posterity's sake when I'm appreciating some snow in the mountains.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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MWG Mentor

MWG

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Santa mierda. Rezaré todas las noches para que esto suceda.

Si vas a rezar no se te olvide de encender velas.🤣 Also, how is it looking for southern Oregon? Haven’t looked at all today. 

virtual GIF

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selkirks Community Regular

selkirks

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Neither have I, except for every winter for at least the last four or five winters.

I remember in 2019 when people were openly predicting three feet of snow in downtown Seattle based off of a ridiculous GFS run.

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dang. Crippling ice storm for the valley. 

43B63B2A-08ED-4C48-A86A-F5BE92BA20E4.png

I'm looking at this too alongside the legend. How do you tell the difference in the highest shades of snow, fzr, and sleet? The red/pink/violets all look the same to me. I see no discernable difference in the legend.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
Just now, Slushy Inch said:

image.thumb.png.b4073e89ab9f6b69572f29b781a3fe7c.png

I said before D10 (edited it quick but apparently you were quicker).

Beyond D10 is essentially meaningless.

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel bad for Salem only getting 7.3”, looks like 3-4’ here. 🤣

Just so I'm clear, those maps are from the run start to the end (or date listed, right)? 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Something obviously changed.  Everything is way colder on this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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