January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Ken in Wood Village]

This is the 06Z GFS, this is insane if it verifies 🌨

[AlTahoe]

2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Night Shift 6z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Now that's the kind of 10 day snowfall total I have been waiting for! I also doubled my seasonal snowfall total by getting 2.5" overnight. Sitting st 5" now on the season. 

[TacomaWx]

What an unreal shift on the models. From a decent event…to a non event…back to a huge event all within 24 hours. Very interesting how they all flipped simultaneously. Makes you wonder if something big actually may be brewing. 
 Still don’t want to get my hopes up yet…we’ve had some very heartbreaking busts in January this century. 2005, 2011 and 2020 (for most of us). Hopefully by early next week it’s still looking this good. I’d expect some refining and watering down to a more realistic solution at the very least. 

[TacomaWx]

In current weather news…picked up 0.42” of rain yesterday and we’re up to 17.92” of rain since October 1st. Not too bad but was hoping for an Uber wet fall/winter. 

[snow_wizard]

As insane as the 6z GFS is the GEFS control is even colder.

[TacomaWx]

Very slight hint dropped by the NWS this morning. 

[SpaceRace22]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As insane as the 6z GFS is the GEFS control is even colder.

The 6z GEFS control spit out a 9F/-3F day for SEA and a 2F/-5F day for PDX. Yes a high temperature of 2 degrees. Lmfao

[jakerepp]

Woah, storms a brewing, huh? Looking juicy!

[Cold Snap]

This would be unbelievable if we broke the January curse during a strong El Niño. 06z GFS and GEFS looked amazing!

[Snownerd3000]

The IBM model is getting on board 

[MikeInEverett]

Ready to have my heart broken!

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Ready to have my heart broken!

I was like 11 or 12 years old when the potential huge January 2011 event fell apart. Literally cried when it all collapsed …good reminder that no matter how good things look it can change quickly 

[Timmy Supercell]

3 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

I have no words. 

Check out those lows for Spokane... 

What's their all time low? I've only gotten to -20 in 2013, and Klamath's all-time is -25.

[RayRay]

I am screaming right now!!!

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I was like 11 or 12 years old when the potential huge January 2011 event fell apart. Literally cried when it all collapsed …good reminder that no matter how good things look it can change quickly 

I really hope this happens, but you never know, especially given how off kilter the models seem to have been the past 6-9-ish months...

I don't know how to caption/modify this, but I'm seeing this as the Euro in the white shirt, GFS in the red shirt (though they could easily be flip-flopped), and this forum in the blue hat.

[Kolk1604]

19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I was like 11 or 12 years old when the potential huge January 2011 event fell apart. Literally cried when it all collapsed …good reminder that no matter how good things look it can change quickly 

That was more just bad luck. A low took the wrong track and ended everything. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I really hope this happens, but you never know, especially given how off kilter the models seem to have been the past 6-9-ish months...

I don't know how to caption/modify this, but I'm seeing this as the Euro in the white shirt, GFS in the red shirt (though they could easily be flip-flopped), and this forum in the blue hat.

Yeah it’s inevitable that the models will change a bit over the next few days. Will definitely be some ups and downs but hopefully more good than bad! 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

That was more just bad luck. A low took the wrong track and ended everything. 

That one is easier to forget about because 2010-2011 was such an incredible winter. February 2011 happened a few weeks later and all was forgiven. 

[Darrington Troll]

Cliff Mass hinted at lowland snow on his blog yesterday. It is over. 

[MossMan]

Always so nice to wake up to an additional 5 pages from the Night Shift!
It appears that it’s still coming! 

[umadbro]

13 minutes ago, Darrington Troll said:

Cliff Mass hinted at lowland snow on his blog yesterday. It is over. 

Roads will be too warm.

[MossMan]

This will catch many IPhone users in my area by surprise…Possibly Shock and Awe! Pretty comical that there isn’t a single snowflake to be seen lol. 

[Skagit Weather]

4 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Widespread deep snowcover pretty much everywhere, so you can knock at least 4+ degrees off the forecast temps.

In my experience, at least recently, the models seem to overdo the effects of snow cover caused cooling. I mean in the last couple years there were runs from both the Euro and GFS where you could see where the snow had fallen based on the temperature maps because in those locations it was 10-20 degrees cooler. It didn't quite manifest in that way.

Although in this case this is all academic because in 10 days it's not going to be anywhere near -5F in Everett, whether there's 10 feet of snow cover or bare ground.

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This will catch many IPhone users in my area by surprise…Possibly Shock and Awe! Pretty comical that there isn’t a single snowflake to be seen lol. 

Lol love it 

[Christensen87]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This will catch many IPhone users in my area by surprise…Possibly Shock and Awe! Pretty comical that there isn’t a single snowflake to be seen lol. 

lol my dad literally just texted me, “Chris , according to the Weather Channel, looks like snow from the 11th to the 14th. Is that how you see it?” I told him we all may need to buckle up…

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Good morning! Just checked out the 06z, what in the actual ****, LETS EFFIN GOOOO! A low of -23 at one point, and 6 high temps in a row near or below 0! That's almost too cold! A huge dump of snow too! And the ensembles are ******* amazing, oh my God! 

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

This would be unbelievable if we broke the January curse during a strong El Niño. 06z GFS and GEFS looked amazing!

If we do then you can thank the SSW. There’s no chance we get sustained cold this winter without it given the strong El Niño state.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 hours ago, Doinko said:

Day 10, major blast

Frigid Arctic air arrives by next Friday. It’s coming!!!  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Dang, I just looked at the ensembles for salem, yesterday's 18z vs today's 06z! INSANE!

[Slushy Inch]

12z!

[Slushy Inch]

Not the best trajectory for snow this run. 

[Slushy Inch]

Gem!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

ITS HAPPENING AGAIN!!

[High Desert Mat?]

When exactly did that SSW happen? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

The arctic blast hasn’t occurred at day 8. And you’re conflating 500mb anomalies with actual heights and wavebreaks/blocks.

With all due respect, it is clear you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

It's just your jive talkin'
You're telling me lies, yeah
Jive talkin'
You wear a disguise
Jive talkin'
So misunderstood, yeah
Jive talkin'

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is frigid 

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Gem!

A very good GEM run for Oregon.  Gobs and gobs of mountain (and lowland) snow.

[Mid Valley Duck]

From a 500mb standpoint this might be one of the best day 7-10 runs I’ve ever seen. Almost couldn’t draw it any better

[Slushy Inch]

Cold and snow on GEM

[Dave]

One of my favorite Oregon webcams. Looks like they have a couple of feet, but look how tall those poles are. It can get seriously deep there, like decent snowpack until mid July.