Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
To me, in layman’s terms, it seemed like things lined up just right with the sudden amplification of the pattern and the position of the ULL offshore to our SW to basically pull a “lobe” of the 4CH directly over our region with very little time for the airmass to moderate. And thanks to the ULL positioning dragging the center hottest air far to the NW, offshore flow became possible in the low levels which allowed an already bonkers airmass to become fully realized in the lowlands in a way that would usually be mitigated to some degree by flat or weakly onshore gradients.
Of course, down south, around or just after the summer solstice is when the 4CH can often be at its most robust, before it starts being eroded by monsoonal influence later in the summer. Which is why June is the hottest month of the year for some parts of the SW US.
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