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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

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Posted by TT-SEA,

Its definitely coming.  
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Posted by iFred,

Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21. Try a mental exercise, close your eyes. Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov

Do this.

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Posted by iFred,

Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
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Posted by Meatyorologist,

Transferring to Part II at 5pm in ~10mins!

Important Note!

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Timmy Mentor

Timmy

Posted
Posted
Just now, Deweydog said:

There are definitely some 12/21 vibes, but this is still in its infancy from a model-handling perspective since this just got out of the subtle hint phase about 24 hours ago. These -NAO-driven events of late have been sticky, but also fairly transitional.  

What happened in 2021? We were living in Norway then

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Corncob
Corncob

Fine. I’ve been lurking here for years. I live in Shoreline and do hyperlocal forecasting for friends between the ship canal and Everett since about 2018. I also work with mutual aid groups to help ho

iFred
iFred

Last Warning Any political, political-adjacent, it-isn’t-political-when-I-know-I’m-on-the-right-side-of-history, or this-guy-was-a-fascist-neo-liberal-weak-will-reactionary-and-so-it-was-ok-for-m

iFred
iFred

Ok, while the Euro is running, I'd like everyone to read the following and then close their eyes and think hard about it. I know its weird hocus pocus stuff for some, but there is some science behind

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted
Just now, Timmy said:

What happened in 2021? We were living in Norway then

Cold and SNOW with a big north/south gradient. Blocking ended up parking just a smidge too far west before rocketing poleward.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Timmy Mentor

Timmy

Posted
Posted
Just now, Deweydog said:

Cold and SNOW with a big north/south gradient. Blocking ended up parking just a smidge too far west before rocketing poleward.  

Did it snow in pdx?

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Timmy said:

What happened in 2021? We were living in Norway then

We got onshore flow snow because the air was so cold that even off the ocean we pulled off some regular snow showers that accumulated several inches of snow. 10" once all was said and done.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted (edited)
Just now, Timmy said:

Did it snow in pdx?

ZR

Scratch that. I'm thinking 12/22. Yeah I'd take another December 2021. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Snyder still not on board.

He probly won't be until this gets within a week. 8 days out is often a big rug-pull so be prepared.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Did it snow in pdx?

Little bit. Mainly from a couple weak inside sliders. The onshore flow portion of the event was pretty incredible though. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted

We still have a very long ways to go. This is really only one day of nice model runs. Give me another 2-3 days and maybe I'll feel slightly more confident that it's going to snow not exclusively in the mountains.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I can't believe how many models / runs are showing the lobe extending off of the PV and right into WA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Wow this is another great run!

I love it when the models are making it look so easy and logical.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

 

Uhhh....

gfs_T700_nwus_48.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Wow!

1705428000-tFldgN4ez6g.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Sunriver Snow Zone Veteran

Sunriver Snow Zone

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Yellowstone seems like the place to be.

image.thumb.png.b02eb67cbc694ad4f2e5754dd09c79f2.png

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Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88"

Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"!

23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!!

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Timmy said:

What happened in 2021? We were living in Norway then

Absolute heaven between 12/25 and 1-1! 
Stayed below freezing (up here) the entire time with lots of snow and a low of 3 degrees! 

IMG_1536.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Oh dear. 

gfs_T700_nwus_51.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I want colder!!!

1705406400-JBXi06orZ4M.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

lmao druncle is so happy he gets to do crazy shiiii!

image.thumb.png.b5eec4f24e41630c82b247c1c3d4f011.png

Looks like two big eyes and smile.  Yikes!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

lmao druncle is so happy he gets to do crazy shiiii!

image.thumb.png.b5eec4f24e41630c82b247c1c3d4f011.png

He’s smiling! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Could be the funnest series of model runs since at least Jan 2020.

  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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AlTahoe Veteran

AlTahoe

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Heavenly.

Nevada side up on Kingsbury grade or in town by the casinos? If you are up on Kingsbury grade they get absolutely buried and you can get snowed in up there. You will want a shovel, food, gas etc. If your in town the casinos are one of the least snowy spots so you don't have to worry down there. If a storm is coming in the gondola from the village won't run so get to the parking lots in Cali and Nevada bases early. The shuttles suck 

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Requiem Grand Master

Requiem

Posted
Posted

Seasonably chilly temps this run 

  • Sun 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Could this be one of those setup where the arctic push is so strong, that he keeps us dry and snowless? Be careful what we wish for, as I have seen it before. What looked to be epic snow and cold just turned into cold and dry.

Wasn’t a problem in 1950! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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umadbro Experienced

umadbro

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Could this be one of those setup where the arctic push is so strong, that he keeps us dry and snowless? Be careful what we wish for, as I have seen it before. What looked to be epic snow and cold just turned into cold and dry.

If it includes a great transition event, I’m all for it

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https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f

my personal weather station

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