January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[The Cats Meow]

Believe 

[SnowySeeker50]

Probably ending with a 39/50 spread today. Hoping for a good set of 0z runs to keep the show going but keeping expectations realistic as we move closer in range.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I think the 500mb of the 12z Spire got posted earlier, but here's the 850mb temps fwiw. Plus my favorite 500mb frame.

Quite the -EPO/-NAO combo there.

[Minion]

23 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

100000% this. Let's be honest, 90% of the fun with all this is the anticipation. I would take being disappointed by a huge bust every single time over getting surprised by a big snowstorm after sitting there with my arms crossed and muttering "not gonna happen" for 2 weeks leading up to it. I get so much value out of the excitement from the lead up period to big weather events that it's so strange to me when people are so determined to be "realistic" in face of very strong positive indications on the models. Even if you're right, what's the fun in extreme downplaying the whole time? Like why even care then?

It's like sports. You gotta believe there's a chance, even if your team is a massive underdog, because there's no point in even paying attention if you don't.

Lol, being realistic doesn't mean I'm not anticipating it? I model ride like everyone on here. I want historic cold and snow, but I don't see the sense of saying it year in and year out when it doesn't happen.

A great week of cold and snow is great. Maybe we can see historic numbers? I just don't buy it at the moment.

[Minion]

17 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

If there's gonna be a rug pull, I feel like it will probably be within the next 24 hours. The pattern is starting to set up in the 4-5 day range now, so the models are going to start to get a pretty firm handle on at least the opening shot here pretty soon. Tomorrow's runs will have the setup within the 96 frame, which is getting dangerously close to locked in at that point. If the rug is gonna pull, we will have to see the initial tugs soon here.

Agreed

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I sort of feel bad for the professional mets, especially those on air personalities. You know they LOVE wild weather and probably want to get in the mix about fantasy model runs, but they have to play it cool and almost play dumb as to not spook the public.

Starting to see some "Mountain snow finally coming. Nothing in the lowlands anytime soon" type posts. You know they see the models and you know they want to say "but there is real potential for some epic winter weather!" but they can't. They have to be measured and short-sighted.

It isn't there fault. Imagine if Komo, King, Kiro, and q13 blasted headlines about "6-12 inches possible for Seattle in the next ten days with the potential of ZERO degree temperatures!"

The city would go into a panic.

So I don't blame them and I respect their professionalism and restraint. But you know they're all snow lovers and are hoping these models verify!

Surprised they don’t do sensationalism  like the rest of media does. They would get more views

[Minion]

5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I sort of feel bad for the professional mets, especially those on air personalities. You know they LOVE wild weather and probably want to get in the mix about fantasy model runs, but they have to play it cool and almost play dumb as to not spook the public.

Starting to see some "Mountain snow finally coming. Nothing in the lowlands anytime soon" type posts. You know they see the models and you know they want to say "but there is real potential for some epic winter weather!" but they can't. They have to be measured and short-sighted.

It isn't there fault. Imagine if Komo, King, Kiro, and q13 blasted headlines about "6-12 inches possible for Seattle in the next ten days with the potential of ZERO degree temperatures!"

The city would go into a panic.

So I don't blame them and I respect their professionalism and restraint. But you know they're all snow lovers and are hoping these models t

They definitely discuss among themselves with excitement. 

[Skagit Weather]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think another 24 hours of sexy regional blast runs secures places north of Seattle as a pretty safe bet to at least see something bleeding out of the Fraser in this type of synoptic pattern. Realistically even the all-time model disasters like January 2005, 2011, and 2020 wound up delivering in those areas.

Much less margin for error once you start to get south of Paine Field or so.

Maybe, but it still seems early to me. I mean the fun runs have only been around for 24 hours. As the long range models have gotten ever so slightly better in the last couple of years it seems like we've pushed out our expectations faster than the models can improve. We're still roughly a week out from when the actual cold air is expected to arrive. And yes, the pattern sets up earlier than that, but based on how much the models vary every single run beyond 5 days, I have very low confidence in it occurring even this far north.

If things looks similar at the end of the weekend then maybe I'll start thinking it's a possibility. Right now I certainly wouldn't put any money on accumulating snow below 1,000' or subfreezing highs, but I don't really gamble either.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

These beautiful runs are being ruined by my wife finding rat sh!t all over our house. 

I just had to call up a bunch of exterminators. Looks like I'm paying $299 for treatment and $79 a month for the next 2 years of quarterly coverage...woo.

I’m fighting an ongoing mouse problem in my place. Rats are unfortunately worse.

The main thing when dealing with rodents is to find out how they are getting in and to seal those ingress and egress points up. That may end up sealing some inside the house, but that is where trapping comes in (and when they find out they’ve been sealed in, they panic, making trapping more effective). Rats are as smart as dogs and will learn and evade traps unless they are in panic mode and make stupid mistakes.

If you do not address how they are getting in, then trapping is a bit like treading water, as more will keep coming in, because they can follow the scent of the other rodents that have come in.

Are you on public sewers? One of the big ways rats get into houses is via the sewer. If you are on a sewer, the exterminator should inject smoke into the drain vents, and go into attic and crawlspace areas to verify there are no holes in the pipes that sewer rats are using to get in.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m fighting an ongoing mouse problem in my place. Rats are unfortunately worse.

The main thing when dealing with rodents is to find out how they are getting in and to seal those ingress and egress points up. That may end up sealing some inside the house, but that is where trapping comes in (and when they find out they’ve been sealed in, they panic, making trapping more effective). Rats are as smart as dogs and will learn and evade traps unless they are in panic mode and make stupid mistakes.

If you do not address how they are getting in, then trapping is a bit like treading water, as more will keep coming in, because they can follow the scent of the other rodents that have come in.

Are you on public sewers? One of the big ways rats get into houses is via the sewer. If you are on a sewer, the exterminator should inject smoke into the drain vents, and go into attic and crawlspace areas to verify there are no holes in the pipes that sewer rats are using to get in.

Luckily for my generation that will be the landlords problem 

[Tanis Leach]

23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Only 25 posts per page now instead of 50. So it’d be at page 45 if there were 50 per page.

Good luck south valley bro. I’m hoping your seasonal forecast of a bit of snow for us down here will come to fruition.

That explains why I'm burning through pages faster. Also, I'm not in the south Valley anymore since college has been completed, and because I can't find a meteorology job to save my life. I'm in Sherwood now, living with parents to pay down loans, and still looking (unsuccessfully) for a meteorology job. South Valley still will be in my heart though and always will be a part of my YouTube channel.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m fighting an ongoing mouse problem in my place. Rats are unfortunately worse.

The main thing when dealing with rodents is to find out how they are getting in and to seal those ingress and egress points up. That may end up sealing some inside the house, but that is where trapping comes in (and when they find out they’ve been sealed in, they panic, making trapping more effective). Rats are as smart as dogs and will learn and evade traps unless they are in panic mode and make stupid mistakes.

If you do not address how they are getting in, then trapping is a bit like treading water, as more will keep coming in, because they can follow the scent of the other rodents that have come in.

Are you on public sewers? One of the big ways rats get into houses is via the sewer. If you are on a sewer, the exterminator should inject smoke into the drain vents, and go into attic and crawlspace areas to verify there are no holes in the pipes that sewer rats are using to get in.

Or get a cat!  

Have not seen any type of rodent in the house or garage for 5 years now.   Our cat is 5.  

[Mercurial]

Nice point and click forecast here.

Tonight

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Patchy freezing fog. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind.

Thursday

A 40 percent chance of snow. Areas of freezing fog before 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. South wind 3 to 5 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 30. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Sunday

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 27.

Sunday Night

A chance of snow before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Monday

A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 25.

Monday Night

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Tuesday

Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29.

Tuesday Night

Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 13.

Wednesday

Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 18.

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

If there's gonna be a rug pull, I feel like it will probably be within the next 24 hours. The pattern is starting to set up in the 4-5 day range now, so the models are going to start to get a pretty firm handle on at least the opening shot here pretty soon. Tomorrow's runs will have the setup within the 96 frame, which is getting dangerously close to locked in at that point. If the rug is gonna pull, we will have to see the initial tugs soon here.

The pattern change definitely gets going within a few days, but there are still many possible evolutions of the pattern from there.

In other words, even if the current model progs 4-5 days out verify perfectly, days 8-10 are not guaranteed to look the same as they do currently. 

How the block reamplifies after the initial formation is what it really comes down to.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Luckily for my generation that will be the landlords problem 

It’s my landlord’s problem, too. I could theoretically own, but nothing for sale in my price range is as nice as where I am. Plus the price to rent ratio is 29 the last time I checked it. Owning only typically makes sense if it is 15 or less.

Going to be interesting to see how the lack of affordability for younger generations is going to play out. Hard to see private home ownership getting much respect from a generation that is mostly priced out of it.

[Tanis Leach]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Luckily for my generation that will be the landlords problem 

If it's a certain landlord in Corvallis, they don't care and will ignore the request. Corvallis subreddit is full of complaints of just this property managment/collection of landlords.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

The pattern change definitely gets going within a few days, but there are still many possible evolutions of the pattern from there.

In other words, even if the current model progs 4-5 days out verify perfectly, days 8-10 are not guaranteed to look the same as they do currently. 

How the block reamplifies after the initial formation is what it really comes down to.

Sorry, to be clear, when I say rug pull, I just mean as far as the entire pattern itself being a total dud. Certainly there are many details that could not work out in our favor while still maintaining the pattern at large.

[Doinko]

Here's what Mark Nelsen is saying

We are watching the period just beyond our 7-day forecast closely; models are forecasting a colder surge of air moving south out of Canada in the 8–10-day period. Of course this is way out in time, but that’s why you are seeing colder temps and even snowflakes in your First Alert Weather app. Whether cold air actually makes it down into southern Washington and Oregon is a big question this far out in time. But consider this your first alert that some sort of colder weather pattern could be on tap for the end of NEXT week.

[Phishy Wx]

Spokane local media starting to bark about next week.  one guy was mentioning blowing snow.  bring it

[SouthHillFrosty]

12 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

These beautiful runs are being ruined by my wife finding rat sh!t all over our house. 

I just had to call up a bunch of exterminators. Looks like I'm paying $299 for treatment and $79 a month for the next 2 years of quarterly coverage...woo.

My wife family runs a local pest control company. They don't make you sign contracts like this. I don't know if they service that far up on highway 2 tho. I'll ask!

[Christensen87]

My partner and I will be putting our house up in Kent later this month. He has a job opportunity over in Wenatchee, so we’ll be moving over there ASAP and renting for a while. I’m excited for a change and better weather for sure. Anybody on this forum live around that area? 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

My partner and I will be putting our house up in Kent later this month. He has a job opportunity over in Wenatchee, so we’ll be moving over there ASAP and renting for a while. I’m excited for a change and better weather for sure. Anybody on this forum live around that area? 

We live in Leavenworth.  Wenatchee and East Wenatchee are across the river from each other and in different counties.  Wenatchee is definitely way drier than we are up here.  Mission Ridge skiing if you are into that is close by.  Housing is hard there just like it is anywhere else  There are some nearby communities like Malaga that are options.  

[MossMan]

32 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I sort of feel bad for the professional mets, especially those on air personalities. You know they LOVE wild weather and probably want to get in the mix about fantasy model runs, but they have to play it cool and almost play dumb as to not spook the public.

Starting to see some "Mountain snow finally coming. Nothing in the lowlands anytime soon" type posts. You know they see the models and you know they want to say "but there is real potential for some epic winter weather!" but they can't. They have to be measured and short-sighted.

It isn't there fault. Imagine if Komo, King, Kiro, and q13 blasted headlines about "6-12 inches possible for Seattle in the next ten days with the potential of ZERO degree temperatures!"

The city would go into a panic.

So I don't blame them and I respect their professionalism and restraint. But you know they're all snow lovers and are hoping these models verify!

Walter Kelly and another Q13 FOX met (can’t remember his name but he also talked like a surfer dude) would go for it back in the day, it was like if Jim and I were on air Mets! 

[GHweatherChris]

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

There are several members who stay warm and then get cold later. 

We talking forum members, members members or ensemble members?

[Christensen87]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

We live in Leavenworth.  Wenatchee and East Wenatchee are across the river from each other and in different counties.  Wenatchee is definitely way drier than we are up here.  Mission Ridge skiing if you are into that is close by.  Housing is hard there just like it is anywhere else  There are some nearby communities like Malaga that are options.  

Yeah, we go visit some friends over in East Wenatchee often, we do love the city. It’ll be a different vibe for sure. There are a few houses for rent currently, but hoping some more pop up this month sometime. 

[Lynnwoodweather]

Just now, MossMan said:

Walter Kelly and another Q13 FOX met (can’t remember his name but he also talked like a surfer dude) would go for it back in the day, it was like if Jim and I were on air Mets! 

Anyone remember way back in the day, KIRO had a guy around the same time as Harry Wappler, I think his name was Larry Rice? He would really go all in on long range potentials. He was great

[Tanis Leach]

Rumor mill has already started to fly in the general public in Portland, with some on FB saying prepare for snow days. Rod Hill is also posting snow maps on FB and TV. 

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Sorry, to be clear, when I say rug pull, I just mean as far as the entire pattern itself being a total dud. Certainly there are many details that could not work out in our favor while still maintaining the pattern at large.

Gotcha, yeah we're getting close to the point where deep western troughing is pretty much guaranteed at least for a short period. 

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, Tanis Leach said:

Rumor mill has already started to fly in the general public in Portland, with some on FB saying prepare for snow days. Rod Hill is also posting snow maps on FB and TV. 

not going to happen now. Thanks Rod. Anyone have his address? 

[westcoastexpat]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Yeah. I completely agree with you here.

 

4 good GFS runs, 2 good ECMWF runs, 2(or 3? I forgot) good GEM runs, with a lot of good ensembles (although those ensembles being in the minority) is a big deal. 

 

Sometimes the ensembles just aren't seeing what the main runs are seeing because they aren't as powerful, and I think this could very much be one of those times that the bulk of the ensembles are just incapable of seeing the big picture. I know I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but I'm sticking to my guns unlike a lot of people here, discouraged by the ensembles

I would rather be right about it being cold and snowy, at risk of being disappointed, then be right about it not being super cold, and potentially being surprised. It's much more fun to root for the cold and snow.

 

 

Edit: I should make if clear that I'm not 100% convinced, or even close to that, I am waiting till Friday morning to see if they stay as consistently cold. 

Your comment on ensembles being weaker and less capable than deterministic numerical weather prediction is not true. Ensembles have much better skill in the extended range than operational runs. The ops runs start to have better skill within 72 hours.

[Doinko]

54 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Only 25 posts per page now instead of 50. So it’d be at page 45 if there were 50 per page.

Good luck south valley bro. I’m hoping your seasonal forecast of a bit of snow for us down here will come to fruition.

When was that change made?

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

not going to happen now. Thanks Rod. Anyone have his address? 

Andrew is apparently related to him.

[GHweatherChris]

21 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

how are the Raccoons doing this year?

50/50

[Tanis Leach]

5 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

not going to happen now. Thanks Rod. Anyone have his address? 

Something something something, Hazel Dell WA, 98something

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, Lynnwoodweather said:

Anyone remember way back in the day, KIRO had a guy around the same time as Harry Wappler, I think his name was Larry Rice? He would really go all in on long range potentials. He was great

Yup, Larry's Long Ranger.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting the pattern gets really good right when the PV split reaches it's most perfect point.  GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement on this.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

33 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Nice point and click forecast here.

Tonight

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Patchy freezing fog. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind.

Thursday

A 40 percent chance of snow. Areas of freezing fog before 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. South wind 3 to 5 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 30. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Sunday

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 27.

Sunday Night

A chance of snow before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Monday

A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 25.

Monday Night

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Tuesday

Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29.

Tuesday Night

Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 13.

Wednesday

Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 18.

My point and click forecast has one night with a chance of rain or snow and a low around 20 after a daytime high of 31

[SeanNyberg]

The problem is that the last few model runs have been NEAR perfect. Which means that there really are only two options: stay the same or pull back.

There is not a lot of realistic improvement next week. OF COURSE the block could be stronger, the arctic air could be colder, and the precip could be juicier... things could always technically get better, but realistically I think we're near the edge of greatness. Meaning the realistic best case scenario is staying where we are.

It's like there are only a few options for improvement and infinite options for collapsing.

Just setting the expectations as we're 30 mins from a fresh GFS run. LOL.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I've been keeping track on this model a lot. I'm posting the last 4 runs (2/00Z, 2/12Z, 3/00Z and 3/12Z). As you can see, temperatures keep falling. It's still a long ways off and things can change but I think something will happen, just don't know what yet. When we get closer to the event, the high resolution models will have a better understanding what we will see. 

Remember, models will waver from time to time so don't lose all hope. The big pattern change will start Friday with lower snow levels. From Friday forward, I don't see the snow level getting above 4k but that will be early next week then it will fall further and hopefully be at sea level later in the week. 

Let's watch and see how the models look tonight. 🌨

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Portland ripped off 19 in a row in January 1930.

For comparison, Boston and New York's records are both at only 16. 

Now that is a holy **** stat is if ever there was one.