January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[lowlandsnow]

Wow

[lowlandsnow]

Incredible cold for an ensemble

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

For comparison here is the operational at 192.

Run to run change on the GEM ensemble...

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

For comparison here is the operational at 192.

I think the GEPS isn't the best for ensembles due to there only being 20 members.  That OP looks like it influenced the ensemble big time.  Look at the run to run change I showed.  It almost perfectly aligns with the OP.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Hold the phone 

bro, what!?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Only 3 feet of snow.

Wine dine 1969 baby!

[lowlandsnow]

Average down to -13

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

I think the GEPS isn't the best for ensembles due to there only being 20 members.  That OP looks like it influenced the ensemble big time.  Look at the run to run change I showed.  It almost perfectly aligns with the OP.

Yeah... GEM ensemble is significantly worse but not sure if that means anything.   Last night we were commenting on how warm the GEM ensemble was compared to its operational run which was insanely cold.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Incredible cold for an ensemble

good grief like a week or something below 0 in spokane, I don't even want to look to figure it out

[snow_wizard]

GEFS 850s bottom out at -13 on the mean.  Incredible for a week out.

[Gradient Keeper]

I really just can't believe the GEFS improvements.

00z ECMWF in 25 minutes. The first BIG Euro run since last February.

[Kolk1604]

lol what the hell... Did the OP break it? 

[FroYoBro]

Andrew, will you be here to do a play by play of the Euro tonight? 

[TT-SEA]

Both GEM and GFS ensembles went strongly in the direction of their operational ruins. 

[catnip]

Ryan seems onboard.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Both GEM and GFS ensembles went strongly in the direction of their operational ruins. 

Yeah it seems like they have a tendency to do that. Thankfully the EPS has been steadily improving the past 3 runs, hopefully that continues with tonight's

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... GEM ensemble is significantly worse but not sure if that means anything.   Last night we were commenting on how warm the GEM ensemble was compared to its operational run which was insanely cold.

 

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Average down to -13

The craziest thing I see here is that the Op is so close to the mean.  There are COLDER members in the ensembles! Even some of the warmest members are good for snow .

Edit: didn't mean to quote you TT

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Wow

How often do you see such big changes in an ensemble?  And it's just 6 hours ago.

[snow_wizard]

At least the GEM ensemble lends no support to the operational GEM.

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Hold the phone 

yall tryna' freeze the sound over or something?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Snow at Death Valley

https://x.com/cartermurphy218/status/1743105626090410478?s=46&t=HzA59fHTcC3I2R4w8NZ10A

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol what the hell... Did the OP break it? 

That is about as strong a signal as you'll ever see in an ensemble mean.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

At least the GEM ensemble lends no support to the operational GEM.

Conflicting reports!

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Both GEM and GFS ensembles went strongly in the direction of their operational ruins. 

They are going to get ruined by each other.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

LETTTSSS FFFUUUCCKKKKKIIINGGG GOOOOO!! MY 4 AND 2 YEAR OLD GRANDKIDS IN SALEM ARE GONNA LOVE THIS IF IT VERIFIES!

[OysterPrintout]

I for one am completely fine with oscillating between thinking the GEM will lead the way and burning American made bottles of fake maple syrup that I've pasted a maple leaf sticker on the front of for Facebook likes 

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern develops upstream in 3 1/2 days FCST HR 84

[RentonHill]

when was the last time the columbia river froze over

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Conflicting reports!

Just saying...it isn't great, but NOITHING like the operational.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Hold the phone 

Druncle got every other run cases of booze for Christmas and they've all started tailgating in preparation for Monday??

[snow_wizard]

Really interesting how the pattern transitions from a Jan 1969 redux to a Jan 1950 redux later in the run.  Pure model porn on this run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The McKenzie will start to get ice on the sides of it if this GFS verifies.

[Requiem]

GEM is over. I am currently buying Canadian flags to burn would anyone want in on this investment opportunity 

[westcoastexpat]

The ensemble GEFS is impressively cold.

The ensemble GEM is surprisingly mild.

[Christensen87]

The D**n site I use isn’t working - https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/#

How was the GFS 00z? 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 8.5. That is near perfection minus a strong SE ridge.

[thisisacreativename]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

The D**n site I use isn’t working - https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/#

How was the GFS 00z? 

Incredible, to put it lightly.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just saying...it isn't great, but NOITHING like the operational.

Same general idea though... lifting block out more quickly and not letting cold air come south.    But probably influenced by the operational run and meaningless if ECMWF is the same.  

[catnip]

[snow_wizard]

You don't see this every day.