Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
Very likely the 00Z run is the complete opposite. All it has to do is handle the upstream situation slightly different around day 5 and the trough crashes down on the PNW and the entire run is different.
My hunch is you’re right. Basically the GFS/GEFS digs a northern shortwave into the STJ beneath the GOA ridge and deepens/amplifies the whole system into +TNH/+PNA.
Which is theoretically possible, however it’s also a notorious GFS springtime bias since the last upgrade. Can’t trust it without support from other guidance.
Lake Sammamish is going to be packed on Saturday. Hope we get parking at the boat launch. Lots of pent up demand for a day in the mid to upper 80s.
@bainbridgekid can you imagine the craziness if they had moved the opening day of boating to this Saturday?
77 in North Bend now.
Should reach mid 80s tomorrow and maybe upper 80s on Saturday. Sunday should still be beautiful out here too... guessing mid to upper 70s and sunny until late evening. Perfect for Mother's Day dinner with the family on the patio.
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