January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Jbolin said:

So, who's jumping off a bridge when tonight's ECMWF trends everything east of Fargo? 

It's not so much a matter of things sliding east.  On this GFS run everyone lost.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not good trends. Not even a little. 80% chance this falls apart. Realistic. Go Euro!

Totally disagree.

BTW the GFS gives it another try later.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually two are way better tonight and one is suspect until we see some support.

Yes. Good to have the GEM and ICON both looking better.

Anyone have the UKmet?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 00z UKMET just came in and it looks great! I love the UK!!!

So we have the GFS as the only loser so far tonight.

[TT-SEA]

The GEM 850mb loop... that pink blob has no southward push as Rob mentioned.  And it seems like all models tend to be too aggressive in the 5-10 day range with cold air pushing southward.  

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not good trends. Not even a little. 80% chance this falls apart. Realistic. Go Euro!

If the GEFS is as bad as it appears there is nearly a zero chance of this having an arctic outcome.

[Parrot]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Totally disagree.

BTW the GFS gives it another try later.

So it blows up the realistic chance then goes right back to teasing us in clown range?

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's not so much a matter of things sliding east.  On this GFS run everyone lost.

I think Euro will be similar to GEM. It certainly won’t change as much as wacky gfs did

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Yes. Good to have the GEM and ICON both looking better.

Anyone have the UKmet?

It is posted and good.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hey DaBears. How goes it?

I still need context on wtf that means...

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One thing to note about the GEM is that the last 3 runs have refused to bring the arctic air south of the border.   Things that don't usually trend more aggressive as it approaches.   But arctic air at the border is good enough to bring lots of snow to western WA.

Last December I think around 5 days before it looked like barely any cold air would make it to Oregon on a couple Euro and GFS runs, after the initial very cold runs. Then I remember they started gradually showing cold air blasting through the Gorge and we ended up having a 23/20 day with very strong east winds. 

[Gummy]

15 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Then again, this run DOES drop 2 feet of snow by Sunday for the central Puget Sound. D**n. (But don't look at snowfall maps SEAN!)

Seattle was screwed over so many times last season I really don't bother with GFS snow maps anymore. "The thrill is gone".

[Mercurial]

The Weather Channel has my high temp at -11F next week Fri/Sat lol, would be a shame if they busted.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Winterdog said:

If the GEFS is as bad as it appears there is nearly a zero chance of this having an arctic outcome.

Can we wait for the ECMWF before jumping off a bridge?

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It is posted and good.

UKMET was the first model to start the reverse rug pull with last December's event after previous runs had backed off a lot.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually two are way better tonight and one is suspect until we see some support.

This feels like a scheduled pullback to me so far. Pretty much every great event lead up has a few of them. If the euro backs off tonight then it’s a problem. Either way there’s just still so much uncertainty. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The GEM 850mb loop... that pink blob has no southward push as Rob mentioned.  And it seems like all models tend to be too aggressive in the 5-10 day range with cold air push southward.  

But....way better than last night's run.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Winterdog]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Can we wait for the ECMWF before jumping off a bridge?

I'm already airborne so it's too late for me

[MV_snow]

Surprised there’s so much panic over one bad GFS run that is clearly doing something whacky given the GEM looks solid and we haven’t seen a bad Euro in a while. We knew that every run was not going to show a perfect solution for the 10 days we model ride for this.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 00z UKMET just came in and it looks great! I love the UK!!!

The only model tonight to give us any hope so far. The trends on the GFS, GEFS and GEM are horrid(for Oregon).

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 00z UKMET just came in and it looks great! I love the UK!!!

Looks like a major blast on the way! Here's another view

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

This feels like a scheduled pullback to me so far. Pretty much every great event lead up has a few of them. If the euro backs off tonight then it’s a problem. Either way there’s just still so much uncertainty. 

Its not a pullback if the model sucks 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I still need context on wtf that means...

I think Phil for some reason thinks you’re a formerly banned member under a new account name.I do not believe at all you were “Dabears”. 

[GHweatherChris]

The GEM coming around to a snowier couple day snow pattern for my backyard was nice to see, that's all that matters.  Just a couple days of sustainable snow and I am a satisfied!!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

This feels like a scheduled pullback to me so far. Pretty much every great event lead up has a few of them. If the euro backs off tonight then it’s a problem. Either way there’s just still so much uncertainty. 

Yes....if the ECMWF is notably worse I will be somewhat worried.  On the other hand this thing has had a two steps forward one step back feel for a few days now.

[AbbyJr]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

This feels like a scheduled pullback to me so far. Pretty much every great event lead up has a few of them. If the euro backs off tonight then it’s a problem. Either way there’s just still so much uncertainty. 

Not necessarily. The Euro backed off for a run or two last winter and then reverted back to the cold solution. It's a fragile setup. 

[Meatyorologist]

GEFS is not in the business of throwing the whole pattern away after D7 like the operational.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's not so much a matter of things sliding east.  On this GFS run everyone lost.

That is another strange aspect of this... the cold air just blossoms out of nowhere.   Aren't we normally tapping into an existing arctic air mass in these situations... like coming down from AK or retrograding?    I guess that's why we can have run where it all disappears.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Seattle was screwed over so many times last season I really don't bother with GFS snow maps anymore. "The thrill is gone".

That was a GEM map, not a GFS one.

[SpaceRace22]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 00z UKMET just came in and it looks great! I love the UK!!!

If that ends up being right, I will officially cede the definition of Chinese food to them and start calling french fries and fried chicken "a Chinese".

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GEM 850mb loop... that pink blob has no southward push as Rob mentioned.  And it seems like all models tend to be too aggressive in the 5-10 day range with cold air pushing southward.  

Even with the pink at the border Washington can get totally nuked with snow no problem.  

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hey DaBears. How goes it?

90% sure DaBears is on here, but it's definitely not Sunriver.

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The only model tonight to give us any hope so far. The trends on the GFS, GEFS and GEM are horrid(for Oregon).

And the UKMET is just a tiny step ahead of the Farmers Almanac in accuracy.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This feels like a scheduled pullback to me so far. Pretty much every great event lead up has a few of them. If the euro backs off tonight then it’s a problem. Either way there’s just still so much uncertainty. 

Could be some initialization funkiness (recon flight data incorporated today or something?) and all models will be thrown off until next 12z runs

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

GEFS is not in the business of throwing the whole pattern away after D7 like the operational.

Gefs has shown the pattern continuing forever for like a whole week

[GHweatherChris]

Sometimes it feels like every model is injected with some sort of protocol data at first, then not, once removed it gives climo results and then bam climo goes out the window and we back to greatness, that may seem jibberish but its just a thought.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So we have the GFS as the only loser so far tonight.

 

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Looks like a major blast on the way! Here's another view

Arctic Front reaches Oregon by Thursday afternoon. The is flexing its muscle tonight. Good to have it on our side. It’s the 2nd best model in the World just behind the EURO.

 

 

[Blizzard777]

This is all normal procedure including the forum crumble.  All ahead slow 

[SnowySeeker50]

GFS was wack. GEM is recovering back, ICON and UKmet look good. Time to wait and see what the Euro brings us.