January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

You've had it so much better than I did when I lived in Tacoma. 

Especially if this event works out…I’ll look back on the last 8 winters as the golden age of snowfall. So many awesome snow events the last few years. Historically it’s been way better than average. It’ll be tough when things go back to normal for a few years. 

[Requiem]

Nice to see the GFS meaningfully improve. The valley is still very much in play

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We don't fall below freezing on this run, D**n. 14 freezes for Springfield so far though and some seasonably cool weather coming up.

Just give it a rest dude. Birthday present for me?  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The Euro is gonna cave to the GFS tonight and Santa is going to die. The Spire is onto something with the bulk of the Arctic air sliding east, not that we need a huge trough to get snow anyways since the 12z GFS showed an overrunning event, so why don't we just sneak in a brief 24 hour bleedout 30F overrunning event to shut you annoying hyped losers up and reset the pattern by hr168 so I can go back to planting daffodils and sharing warm EPS maps. As I've said many times before, once the holidays are over snow loses its magic and just becomes inconvenient to real people with actual lives.

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, mjreich said:

Not quite in the same way, since they are by definition probabilistic.  The AI models are essentially taking a complex set of atmospheric conditions and turning them into mathematical vectors that can be used to query for similarity - the process of training is itself probabilistic, so you only need run the model once to determine the highest probability outcome for a given set of specific criteria. 

This is one of the fundamental advances in the field. Ensembles only exist to deal with the inherent stochastic limitations of a deterministic physics model; they are trying to capture the probability distribution, but in a very backwards way. We never known whether the ensemble distribution is representative of reality, or just a distribution of the limitations of the underlying physics packages. 
 

AI model solutions generally reflect the probabilities of actual weather conditions occurring, which is why they are/will be so much better than our current model outputs.  Add in the simplicity of adding additional data (adding additional vectors without having to bother with physics whackamole), the infinite geographic scaling and you end up with a completely different category of weather prediction that what we’re familiar with. 
 

Part of the existential crisis in weather forecasting behind closed doors right now is that this technology renders the NBM and much of the existing forecasting infrastructure obsolete, along with a lot of jobs devoted to developing and servicing the large global deterministic models. Lots of competing pressures and entrenched interests. 

There is still a real issue of point forecasting and nowcasts, which still isn't great.

[iFred]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

@Meatyorologist was doing the reverse psychology thing.   It has worked for years for me and Randy during Seahawks games!    Its a great tactic.   

My response was reverse psychology too!

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, mjreich said:

Part of the existential crisis in weather forecasting behind closed doors right now is that this technology renders the NBM and much of the existing forecasting infrastructure obsolete, along with a lot of jobs devoted to developing and servicing the large global deterministic models. Lots of competing pressures and entrenched interests. 

Classic tale of technology advancement.

[Slushy Inch]

Looking at eps chance of significant snow in western wa is way up. Rug push?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

My response was reverse psychology too!

4-D chess... well played.  

[Darrington Troll]

Oh yeah, major rug push 

[Olive1010]

Is there gonna be snow here

[lowlandsnow]

The most important model the ICON is now going for a much colder solution. It's coming

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Especially if this event works out…I’ll look back on the last 8 winters as the golden age of snowfall. So many awesome snow events the last few years. Historically it’s been way better than average. It’ll be tough when things go back to normal for a few years. 

It has been a good run.  A good number of freezing max temps recently and snow most winters.  A much needed cold January would really round it out.

[Mid Valley Duck]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Or south.

The Euro, GEM and Spire are all varying degrees of well south. The more interesting thing to me is now basically all models have picked up on that system.

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Mossy male votes NO

Needs to trend north a few miles. 

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You were there during the horrible period.  No doubt our winters bottomed out many years ago.

Yeah, I lived in the Tacoma area from 1990-1997 and 1999-2006. The first period was obviously better than the second, but definitely not as much snow as the last 7 years.

[Christensen87]

Yeah, I’ll be surprised if Euro doesn’t cave tonight. Bummer. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Welp, no action on the GFS in the believable range. Maybe the long range will start to show some colder temps.

[Weiner Warrior]

[ajreich]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

There is still a real issue of point forecasting and nowcasts, which still isn't great.

For sure, but this will likely be improved as training expands to include synthetic meso- and local scale data. Now that the global systems are largely past the proof of concept stage, the finer grained tools are just a matter of time. 
 

Exciting stuff! Thanks for all the hard work making this forum what it is

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Classic tale of technology advancement.

The flip side is that there will need a lot more skilled human reviewers to validate the forecast. Effectively looking for the notorious Gen AI six fingered, three handed fakes to say "yeah, this Microsoft BinGFS is correct in forecasting 43 below in Miami."

[SeanNyberg]

The trends are looking great w/ today's models. 

[Mercurial]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is it possible for you to move?

I saw on zillow today that there are some condos on Snoqualmie Pass.  They get like 400" up there.  Need to do more research, but it's tempting. 

[iFred]

Just now, mjreich said:

For sure, but this will likely be improved as training expands to include synthetic meso- and local scale data. Now that the global systems are largely past the proof of concept stage, the finer grained tools are just a matter of time. 
 

Exciting stuff! Thanks for all the hard work making this forum what it is

Better scrape that PWS data from The Weather Company before IBM realizes the gold mine they're sitting on.

[Mercurial]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The Euro is gonna cave to the GFS tonight and Santa is going to die. The Spire is onto something with the bulk of the Arctic air sliding east, not that we need a huge trough to get snow anyways since the 12z GFS showed an overrunning event, so why don't we just sneak in a brief 24 hour bleedout 30F overrunning event to shut you annoying hyped losers up and reset the pattern by hr168 so I can go back to planting daffodils and sharing warm EPS maps. As I've said many times before, once the holidays are over snow loses its magic and just becomes inconvenient to real people with actual lives.

Lol

[selkirks]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

The most important model the ICON is now going for a much colder solution. It's coming

looks fine

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, I lived in the Tacoma area from 1990-1997 and 1999-2006. The first period was obviously better than the second, but definitely not as much snow as the last 7 years.

1999 - 2006 was awful.  Interestingly the second worse was 1938 - 1946.  Major recovery after both terrible periods.

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Mercurial said:

I saw on zillow today that there are some condos on Snoqualmie Pass.  They get like 400" up there.  Need to do more research, but it's tempting. 

Worked with a guy that lived up there in the winter. The number of "I nearly died coming into work" talk kind of put me off.

Leavenworth though...

[Christensen87]

Just now, selkirks said:

looks fine

Icon looks fine 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Mercurial said:

I saw on zillow today that there are some condos on Snoqualmie Pass.  They get like 400" up there.  Need to do more research, but it's tempting. 

Pretty sure the price is VERY HIGH

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

The trends are looking great w/ today's models. 

This GFS change makes no logical sense. How are the 3 tallest locations in the state warmer while the same time all the lowlands are colder. What a garbage model. 

[thisisacreativename]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The Euro is gonna cave to the GFS tonight and Santa is going to die. The Spire is onto something with the bulk of the Arctic air sliding east, not that we need a huge trough to get snow anyways since the 12z GFS showed an overrunning event, so why don't we just sneak in a brief 24 hour bleedout 30F overrunning event to shut you annoying hyped losers up and reset the pattern by hr168 so I can go back to planting daffodils and sharing warm EPS maps. As I've said many times before, once the holidays are over snow loses its magic and just becomes inconvenient to real people with actual lives.

00z preview:

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

The flip side is that there will need a lot more skilled human reviewers to validate the forecast. Effectively looking for the notorious Gen AI six fingered, three handed fakes to say "yeah, this Microsoft BinGFS is correct in forecasting 43 below in Miami."

Does it really do fake outs like that?

[Mercurial]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Worked with a guy that lived up there in the winter. The number of "I nearly died coming into work" talk kind of put me off.

Leavenworth though...

I would just consider it if I were required to work hybrid for a Seattle employer (like 2x per week or so).  But obviously a lot of considerations, like where's the nearest grocery store, etc.  

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just give it a rest dude. Birthday present for me?  

Happy 40th!

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This GFS change makes no logical sense. How are the 3 tallest locations in the state warmer while the same time all the lowlands are colder. What a garbage model. 

The uppers did not trend as cool as the surface did.

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This GFS change makes no logical sense. How are the 3 tallest locations in the state warmer while the same time all the lowlands are colder. What a garbage model. 

Is this meant to be a joke? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Happy 40th!

 Not quite. But getting closer

[High Desert Mat?]

Lame. Even the druncle can’t come through. Ova

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

Worked with a guy that lived up there in the winter. The number of "I nearly died coming into work" talk kind of put me off.

Leavenworth though...

Probably highway 18. I hate that road,  semi trucks should not be allowed until they repair the road and add lanes. One of the most dangerous roads in the state!!