January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Gradient Keeper]

CMCE far better than the Op. The Dalles the op was a warm outlier. Check out Moses Lake and note the large cluster of bitter members. Hmmm....

[Kolk1604]

18 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

@Kolk1604

Can you post a dp and precip map for 10am Saturday?  Thanks dude.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'd just like to point out that it is entirely possible here that the well established ECMWF lives up to it reputation of unparalleled accuracy within 7 days, flanked by the new guard of AI and private RO satellite driven models that are actually far superior but just haven't been proven to the masses yet. If all of these models live up to what they are *claimed* to be, then there is one slam dunk answer here: a historic arctic blast and at minimum several days of bitter cold west of the Cascades. This could absolutely be a situation here where the setup is so complex that it's throwing all the lower skill models for a loop, while the ultra fancy new tech handles it just fine. It's possible all the disappointment will be shown to be nothing more than indignant shrieking of a bunch of boomers who refuse to accept the wonderful technological advancements we have before us. 

Did you have ChatGPT write this?

[Deweydog]

I blame Fred. Cancelling Andrew weakened the block.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Did you have ChatGPT write this?

ChatGPT with some edits to mask the artificial-ness.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Did you have ChatGPT write this?

[LowerGarfield]

For my location only I like the GFS but hoping it is cold enough to get all that snow my corner is looking to get per GFS and some of the other models. Just hoping my location isn't too warm because NWS Spokane says SE WA could be favored late week.

What isn't so great: That ice storm in Portland would be absolutely horrible. That would be a disaster. It also gives me some ice a week later on the run too.

[MV_snow]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Well trends are not good for Olympia south tonight. Hopefully we can get some of those better runs back but we’re running out of time.

And even for us in the central Sound, the situation became a lot more precarious despite the pepto maps these models are spitting out. I would so much rather have a regional blast down to Tiger and let the snow take care of itself later.

[The Blob]

Just woke up from my 14hr nap and it's looking colder on Wunderground for me this week. 

What all have I missed? 

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

CMCE far better than the Op. The Dalles the op was a warm outlier. Check out Moses Lake and note the large cluster of bitter members. Hmmm....

It to is also snowy 

[Gradient Keeper]

Operational models clearly are still struggling. Dang. CMCE The Dalles surface temps. Large cluster of bitter members.

[Randyc321]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

Thanks dude.  This would be awesome for some of us. Wish those were inches.

[SpaceRace22]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

ChatGPT with some edits to mask the artificial-ness.

I suppose you would certainly know about inauthenticity!

[Gummy]

23 hours ago, Randyc321 said:

Let us know when you on board @Gummy.  You are super picky.   If you think it's gonna snow and get cold that's good enough for me.  

Definitely not on board yet. I will update again on Wednesday night, hopefully it is sorted out by then and I can make a final determination.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'd just like to point out that it is entirely possible here that the well established ECMWF lives up to it reputation of unparalleled accuracy within 7 days, flanked by the new guard of AI and private RO satellite driven models that are actually far superior but just haven't been proven to the masses yet. If all of these models live up to what they are *claimed* to be, then there is one slam dunk answer here: a historic arctic blast and at minimum several days of bitter cold west of the Cascades. This could absolutely be a situation here where the setup is so complex that it's throwing all the lower skill models for a loop, while the ultra fancy new tech handles it just fine. It's possible all the disappointment will be shown to be nothing more than indignant shrieking of a bunch of boomers who refuse to accept the wonderful technological advancements we have before us. 

I think this is the first time any of these AI models have performed for an Arctic event here. Hold your naive optimism for a second and stop standing over other people when you have no proof.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

It to is also snowy 

Only 23” for me.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

I didn't say it's the most likely outcome, just that it's a possibility. It's not like there is 0 data to support GraphCast's accuracy, and you fundamentally misunderstand how machine learning works if you think AI can't recognize and account for brand new situations.

I know you're miserable and it bothers you when everyone else isn't as well, but I'm never going to apologize for being an optimist, xoxo

 I don't really understand what you said that anyone would take issue with. Who cares. I don't want AI in any aspect in our lives personally, but whatever. Well, I will say the overdone "boomer" slang is getting old from everyone. That's about it.
00z ECMWF in 15 minutes H U G E  R U N

[High Desert Mat?]

Blizzard warning up for the higher elevations around here. If we’re going to go big let’s go big!!!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

It was a great afternoon to get a quick snow fix up on Hood. Did the short two mile snowshoe to Trillium Lake. Temps were in the upper 20s and it was snowing lightly much of the time. For contrast, we were up at the same spot last Saturday and there was basically zero snow. The Cascades have done well this week, and at very least that looks to continue.

[Perturbed Member]

IBM/Weather.com is all we have got left down here in PDX. Doesn't look like they got the memo from the GFS yet. 

[MV_snow]

Lots of testiness on the forum tonight. We need the Euro to hold serve in the worst way!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It was a great afternoon to get a quick snow fix up on Hood. Did the short two mile snowshoe to Trillium Lake. Temps were in the upper 20s and it was snowing lightly much of the time. For contrast, we were up at the same spot last Saturday and there was basically zero snow. The Cascades have done well this week, and at very least that looks to continue.

Beautiful! Look at all of those fishing spots available too!

[Requiem]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

IBM/Weather.com is all we have got left down here in PDX. Doesn't look like they got the memo from the GFS yet. 

Ice storm preparation time methinks 

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

 I don't really understand what you said that anyone would take issue with. Who cares. I don't want AI in any aspect in our lives personally, but whatever. Well, I will say the overdone "boomer" slang is getting old from everyone. That's about it.
00z ECMWF in 15 minutes H U G E  R U N

Yeah I don't actually disagree that there are some pretty grave concerns about AI in general. With weather forecasting though it definitely seems like it could be one of the few use cases where it makes a ton of sense and could be pretty useful. I guess we'll find out soon!

The boomer thing was meant tongue in cheek, my bad if it didn't come across how I wanted it to.

[Phil]

Okay guys, 00z Euro starts in 9 minutes. Drama gets put on hold until it runs.

[Phishy Wx]

12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Operational models clearly are still struggling. Dang. CMCE The Dalles surface temps. Large cluster of bitter members.

we have a pretty large cluster of bitter members on here tonight

[SouthHillFrosty]

Snowiest GEFS run yet in the last couple of days 

[Christensen87]

[The Blob]

I see I didn't miss the fighting.

 

[SpaceRace22]

Yeesh. All I was trying to do was inject some positivity in here and everyone lost their minds at me. I apologize if it came off snotty or "obsessed with AI". To be clear, I absolutely do not think the GraphCast is correct here and it's quite clear what the trend tonight is. Everyone chill out.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I posted some overly optimistic word vomit and they both jumped on me. I'm just matching energy.

I thought what you wrote was fine, my response was meant to be humorous.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Okay guys, 00z Euro starts in 9 minutes. Drama gets put on hold until it runs.

Wouldn't that be great.

6z GFS in 3 hours 57 minutes

[MossMan]

Maybe if we unplug and plug back in the models it will fix those ugly glitches! 

[van city]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Okay guys, 00z Euro starts in 9 minutes. Drama gets put on hold until it runs.

Don't you have girlfriend to go to?

[Slushy Inch]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I blame Fred. Cancelling Andrew weakened the block.

Andrew was cancelled?

[Gradient Keeper]

The Forum right now

[van city]

Anyone seen Jesse?

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I thought what you wrote was fine, my response was meant to be humorous.

Apologies for reading it in the worst possible light then, my bad. It's felt like you've for whatever reason had it out for me lately, and I was too quick to assume that was another one of those times. No harm no foul, xoxo

[The Winter Warlock]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The Forum right now

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Andrew was cancelled?

I’m wondering if he saw any snow the last few days. Coming down the hill, there was snow on the ground all the way down to Brightwood (we drove up the Hood River side). Rhododendron had several inches.

Let me know when you see this @SilverFallsAndrew