January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Don't pretend you are above that, be honest.

Well yeah of course I want it to snow here but you can either be negative or positive about it. Not going to be upset if some folks down south get some snow. 

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Anyone think this event will be colder than Dec 21/22 of last year? We hit 8F lows here both nights

Might be difficult to best Dec 27, 2021 where we got down to 4 F

Could be close.  4 will probably be difficult though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

ICON looking very similar to its 12z run. Interesting theme showing up...

Some conflicting reports out there.

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Depends on where you are. Lowest low temp in the past couple years was 15 (2021) IMBY. Coldest max is 24 (2021) Could come very close or surpass both of those 

I mentioned this yesterday I think, but if SEA manages a high below 25 or low below 14, it will establish new cold marks for the 21st century.

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Big move north on the ICON.  Hmmmmm.

Maybe adding pics would help

[Mid Valley Duck]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Icon jumped north

It only had one option, it was the furthest south model. It is now about where the 12z Euro was. 

[Minion]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I told the kids at the dinner table this evening that I am putting their sleds back in the attic since we are now barely in the 2nd shade of grey and the dusting that we probably won’t even get won’t be enough to sled in. Lots of tears flowing but it is what it is.

Lol this is a joke I assume ?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I told the kids at the dinner table this evening that I am putting their sleds back in the attic since we are now barely in the 2nd shade of grey and the dusting that we probably won’t even get won’t be enough to sled in. Lots of tears flowing but it is what it is.

You need to take that plow blade off your lawn tractor STAT!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

ICON looking very similar to its 12z run. Interesting theme showing up...

It's a good click further north. Is it not?

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Don't pretend you are above that, be honest.

He’s definitely been in the more reasonable camp for Puget Sounders. Luckily it’s a big camp ️ 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Well yeah of course I want it to snow here but you can either be negative or positive about it. Not going to be upset if some folks down south get some snow. 

The thing that would be really disappointing to me is this is January and we had so much trouble getting anything good in this month for years.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... sort of just undoing its silly 18Z run.  

That to me seems like the theme of today-- models not doing anything new, but reverting to their solutions several runs before and back again. 

[Sandy rocks]

It's 36 here in Sandy. Starting to see wet snow under the lights.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some conflicting reports out there.

It's north from last few runs but still way south compared to gfs. 

[Corncob]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some conflicting reports out there.

Icon looks fine

[Weiner Warrior]

So it begins

[Phishy Wx]

local news met was mentioning the Arctic low in Canada is further west this time than usual which

A. the Rockies aren't blocking the arctic air from getting into E WA  and the basin like they usually do

B. suppressing the storm track

 

Leads me to think it could get colder than modeled over here or at least colder than the media and the NWS are calling for

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's a good click further north. Is it not?

With the first low it is slightly further north than the 12z, but precip this run still doesn't actually make it into the PDX metro or across the state line. Not too concerned, these lows always have a pretty robust and further north than modeled precip shield. 

[Darrington Troll]

Can someone post the icon?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's north from last few runs but still way south compared to gfs. 

Sounds like it’s about the same as its 12z run though. I think you are onto something only comparing the 00z to the 12z runs and the 06z to the 18z runs. There seem to be run to run wobbles between those two sets that don’t always represent overall trends. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing that would be really disappointing to me is this is January and we had so much trouble getting anything good in this month for years.

And now we get to enjoy a nice dry arctic blast!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's a good click further north. Is it not?

South of its 12Z run by a little.   18Z run was just goofy cold.   ICON is bad and its 18Z and 06Z runs are even more lost.  

[Minion]

4 hours ago, SeanNyberg said:

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.

I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.

I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.

Biggest attention seeking post lol 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... sort of just undoing its silly 18Z run.  

I compared to 12z. It is north

 

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

It's 36 here in Sandy. Starting to see wet snow under the lights.

You should do great with snow tonight! 

[Doinko]

GRAF goes out to Friday now, looks like cold east winds arrive Friday

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Darrington Troll said:

Can someone post the icon?

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

That to me seems like the theme of today-- models not doing anything new, but reverting to their solutions several runs before and back again. 

Good sign of stability. Unless of course you’re the GFS

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I compared to 12z. It is north

 

How far out are you?    It just jumped from hour 84 to 138 on Tidbits with no frames in between... it was approaching and then totally gone.  

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Minion said:

Lol this is a joke I assume ?

When it comes to my snow…I’m always DEAD serious…

[Cloud]

There’s no data after hr 84 for the icon folks. If you are using tidbits

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I compared to 12z. It is north

 

Also notice there are timing differences with the waves so it can be north in one frame and then south in another.  

[GHweatherChris]

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

There’s no data after hr 84 for the icon folks. If you are using tidbits

Its also out to like 144 hours... it will backfill the missing frames.

[FroYoBro]

Rain is coming down at a decent clip now. Still getting a slight sw breeze, but it has calmed down a lot over the last couple of hours. 40 degrees. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looks south maybe I’m trippin 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

South winds still roaring! Holding steady at 38°F, 0.91” of rain for the day.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Still south the ECMWF/EPS suite... its probably not done shifting north.  

[LowerGarfield]

Flicker! I'd like to keep my power on since we're around the peak.