January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[GHweatherChris]

Getting some BS rain/snow mix consolation crap right now.

[Kayla]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Ever tried to start a car on a -10˚F morning?

Spoiler alert…you can’t.

[Prairiedog]

46 minutes ago, DDDRWx said:

That’s the Jack Capell special; Ft Dawson and Watson Lake temps.  Old school black marker pressure maps .

Yes indeed!  He loved those spots when cold air was marching south..  Grease pen in hand he was a master with isobars.  He loved those places this time of year. 

[Requiem]

I remember how both surprised and insanely jealous I was when PS areas got that surprise dump of snow with the Arctic front in Feb 2019. There are always surprises with that thing. 

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I would take the battery out of the car and keep it in my dorm room overnight so I had the benefit of a warm battery delivering a full charge.

this is why I love having a garage.  it gets cold in there too, but not below 0 and rarely below freezing

[iFred]

If I ever read another post from an Oregonian complaining how this forum is just filled with folks from the Puget Sound and British Columbia who like to brag about their weather, I will ban them from the internet.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Requiem said:

I remember how both surprised and insanely jealous I was when PS areas got that surprise dump of snow with the Arctic front in Feb 2019. There are always surprises with that thing. 

Exactly…we’ve just got to wait and see. Things almost never go exactly to what the models show. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

If this the polar lobe would have just pushed out even another 50 miles offshore today it would have sent a bunch of snowy juice into us with the arctic front…50 stinkin miles…

Embrace the tumbleweeds.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

For the models, it's push. The GFS caught on at the 500mb level earlier than the Euro. The Euro then was very insistence with the southern track while the GFS was trying to figure this thing out. Winner will be Oregon folks.

For the long range, maybe. For the mid range, the GFS fell apart on the Arctic outbreak 5-7 days out. Here was the 12z on 1/6, for tomorrow afternoon.

 

Here's this morning's 12z.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

If I ever read another post from an Oregonian complaining how this forum is just filled with folks from the Puget Sound and British Columbia who like to brag about their weather, I will ban them from the internet.

[North_County]

Wind switched front south to north at some point in the last 20 minutes. It's here. Temp should start dropping soon.

[Phishy Wx]

looks like we're about to get a decent burst pre arctic front.  sitting at 30 currently, DP 23

 

 

[Randyc321]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Seattle radar overall pretty dry, but a CZ of sorts looks to be forming between South Seattle and Enumclaw. 
 

Been watching this,  it's extending West too.  Go CZ!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Spoiler alert…you can’t.

Mine starts fine, started last year at -22. But everything needs to be in top shape and if the battery is more than 2 years old good luck lol. If a diesel you better plug it in. anyone reading this if you have not had a shop check your batt do it. We do it for free.

[MikeInEverett]

I’m seeing some signs of a c-zone or just a band of precip trying to form around Everett right now. In Edmonds at work right now but will keep my eyes glued to the radar throughout the day

[Weiner Warrior]

Just saw a flake in Bellevue... 500'

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cabin has a forecast low of -20, currently 8 degrees. Last year we hit -28.

[Deweydog]

Chilly.

[MossMan]

Still at 30.1 degrees…Wonder if I will even hit freezing before the arctic front at this point???

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I remember how both surprised and insanely jealous I was when PS areas got that surprise dump of snow with the Arctic front in Feb 2019. There are always surprises with that thing. 

Wasn’t there forecasted to be a lot more snow tho? I thought models showed a wide  spread 1-3 inches with that. 

 

[Blizzard777]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Ever tried to start a car on a -10˚F morning?

Agree, the reality factor of living in such cold would be frustrating after awhile.  I do like that we get a taste and it goes away. At least the extreme stuff

[SouthHillFrosty]

Short term doesn’t look bad tbh…..

[RentonHill]

Healthy ridge in our long range model of choice 

[Deweydog]

Gorge winds continue until the end of days on the GFS.

[van city]

12 minutes ago, iFred said:

Don’t you have your own forum to be weird in?

Great customer service!!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Chilly.

Just imagine if we built a pipe through the cascades to draw that air into Seattle. Pipe would need to be huge lol.

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Winds shifted west last night. Temps rose from 28 to 36 and dew point dropped to mid 20s. I don’t think anyone gets any snow from this front. No moisture.

We want the warm moist west wind this morning.  The low level outflow will lift that and form a band of snow this afternoon. I almost guarantee.  How much and where it falls is a guess. But there will be some snow moving east to west on the outflow boundary later 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Short term doesn’t look bad tbh…..

GEM looks good too for us. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Short term doesn’t look bad tbh…..

This is grossly overdone

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

should be using short term models at this point.  most still showing -25+ in NW MT, some -40

Regardless, point remains. That map from the Euro looks no less cold than it did two or three days ago, if not colder in spots. The air mass is not being moderated.

There will almost certainly be places in MT that get colder than -40 with this.

[MikeInEverett]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wasn’t there forecasted to be a lot more snow tho? I thought models showed a wide  spread 1-3 inches with that. 

 

ECMWF showed a widespread 3-4” with that arctic front and that’s about what most of us got. A deformation band formed over the north/central sound that dropped an additional 4-6” after the initial front later that night. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

We want the warm moist west wind this morning.  The low level outflow will lift that and form a band of snow this afternoon. I almost guarantee.  How much and where it falls is a guess. But there will be some snow moving east to west on the outflow boundary later 

The wind I got wasn’t moist. Dew points dropped 10 degrees in minutes 

[ShawniganLake]

21 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Thats almost the coldest i have seen up there. -56 i think the last big blast.

-58F at Watson Lake just before Christmas 2022

[Front Ranger]

15 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Winds shifted west last night. Temps rose from 28 to 36 and dew point dropped to mid 20s. I don’t think anyone gets any snow from this front. No moisture.

You're in a prime spot for this, I'd be shocked if you don't get snow from the outflow tonight into tomorrow.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

22 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Do you guys think they'll either have school closed tomorrow or do a half day? Because no one wants to get stranded at school. Because the snow starts in the afternoon

At least for the PPS district, I doubt they’ll want to lose anymore time after the month long teachers strike and shortened holiday break. Hope they don’t mess this up though, would be chaos if it hits midday.

[TacomaWx]

Arctic boundary has crossed the 49th parallel into Sumas on the Nws Obs. Map. 35 DP 23 with NE wind. 

[Phishy Wx]

Graupel shower.  interesting.  pretty dynamic above.  prime snow squall potential today

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Short term doesn’t look bad tbh…..

Our only hope for us is today and tonight. 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Gorge winds continue until the end of days on the GFS.

maybe the north pole is actually relocating to Portland

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Arctic boundary has crossed the 49th parallel into Sumas on the Nws Obs. Map. 35 DP 23 with NE wind. 

I can see the trees swaying on the live stream from Barkley Village in Bellingham.