January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... the ECMWF shows today and Thursday to be significantly colder than the day in between with the snow event we are tracking.     Quite the spread on day 10 day!   That means it shows 45 at midnight and 44 at 4 a.m. (end of run) and would guess its showing  rain at that time.

Only one 50-burger for Seattle?!

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not heard of any problems with the Max 8 recently. It is the Max 9 that blew a door plug.

Yeah that's true but they are the same basic aircraft.  The 737 Max, whether it be the 8 or the 9 now carry quite a stigma.  Temp up to 26 now and headed to somewhere in the 30's.

[North_County]

24 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I would say that is a fair forecast. 5 is a great snow storm.

Go big or go home. I don't get particularly upset about missing out on storms, but I turn into Mossman when snow starts looking likely.

[Randyc321]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... the ECMWF shows today and Thursday to be significantly colder than the day in between with the snow event we are tracking.     Quite the spread on day 10 day!   That means it shows 45 at midnight and 44 at 4 a.m. (end of run) and would guess its showing  rain at that time.

You are in fine form this morning Tim.  Enjoy.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thanks! Yeah, I feel like for low level cold this one beats out all of those except 68', though 2004 was pretty close at its peak. I feel like this one cleaned up what that one left on the table. Maybe I'm missing something, but for what temps in the lower Columbia Basin verified at, I feel like we did about as well as we could have dreamed of with this (In terms of temps.). Maybe one of these days we can couple a low level blast with a full upper level blast and see what happens. 

Yeah, this one’s duration will stand out almost as much as its bottom end. Not too many examples of being able to pull off a warm overrunning system then transition to a dry inversion so effectively while keeping the spigot almost completely uninterrupted. 12/08 was kind of similar, but was more of a hybrid with the cold upper levels, albeit maritime in nature, on the back end.

[LowerGarfield]

16F and sunny for now. Warmest it has been in almost a week.

[Snownerd3000]

 

[Jakewestsalem]

Flight out of Nashville tomorrow evening at 6pm local time to KSEA.

No delays so far, but I am not encouraged by what I've heard lately

[SpaceRace22]

33 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Apparently ecmfw has an AI model out that is even better than graphcast

Yeah, the AIFS. It's available here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]}

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Low of 0 this morning  at my place in Bend. Decided to take a drive down to the Deschutes. Glad I went before it warms up because the river is nearly frozen over. 

is that rare or an annual thing?  Our lake (Liberty Lake) froze over too, people playing hockey on it yesterday.  it use to be annual but not so much according to the locals in the last 10 years ish

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Flight out of Nashville tomorrow evening at 6pm local time to KSEA.

No delays so far, but I am not encouraged by what I've heard lately

Everyone is stuck in Nashville!   And praying for rain at SEA.  

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

16F and sunny for now. Warmest it has been in almost a week.

same we broke double digits finally, up to 14

[iFred]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... the ECMWF shows today and Thursday to be significantly colder than the day in between with the snow event we are tracking.     Quite the spread on day 10 day!   That means it shows 45 at midnight and 44 at 4 a.m. (end of run) and would guess its showing  rain at that time.

Get it out of your system. Now share with us maps that show the remainder of winter being warm and spring only a few weeks away.

[Randyc321]

Got a light SE breeze going now.  Gusting up to only 5 mph, but my dp and rh falling again. 

Dp was up to 23.6, but now back down to 15.8.  

And, I have a thunderstorm icon showing on my weather station.  Fun stuff.

[Tyler Mode]

About as low as this is gonna go...

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Had a low of 8 degrees here this morning and everything is still completely covered in snow with almost 0 melting since Saturday. It's been so still that even the tree branches are still caked in it. Without a doubt the longest I have seen snow on the ground in the lowlands without any significant melting.

It's been a really amazing stretch. Had a bit less than you I think, about 3" here, but none of it has melted.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The mm5 model is hitting the hood canal hard Thursday with almost a foot of snow caused by strong offshore flow.

 

Edited January 16 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Everyone is stuck in Nashville!   And praying for rain at SEA.  

Forum meet up at the Nashville airport! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 46 at Horse Creek a bit east of here at 3300'. The warm air is up there, how long will it take to make it to the valley floor though?!

[Timmy]

Does anyone have euro ice maps for later this week? Gfs is showing a return of freezing rain

Edited January 16 by Timmy

[Blizzard777]

38 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

That is awesome, thank you so much for taking the time to make it! Seriously, I really love lurking in this forum- with all of the debating back and forth everyone does I've learned a ton, and I really appreciate how well ideas are explained (or picked to shreds lol). 

Alas, you can add me to the broken pipe brigade. Fire alarm has gone off 4 times in the last hour as we climb above freezing in my condo building. One of our sprinklers has busted. Right now hoping that it's just one of the exterior pipes going from the control room, but we will only know for sure as we thaw out and when we get a plumber in. lol @Blizzard777 if your fix holds, you want to make some extra money by coming north and soldering ours?  Goodness knows when we will be able to get someone out to look at it...

Already 32.9 in Skyway, le sigh.

 

 

Ugh!!!

I have a heater out there along my line right now as my emergency shut off valve is frozen currently, downstream from my fix (which I had put in last time where my pipe bursted 17 years ago) .  I’ll go without water for a bit and make sure everything is thawed before I turn back on. Otherwise I’ve moved onto getting the water damaged stuff out of garage.  Good times.

Hope yours didn’t do any major damage and hang in there

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Does anyone have euro ice maps for later this week? Gfs is showing a return of freezing rain

Entire run... looks like its an east side thing after tomorrow.

[Andstorm]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Does anyone have euro ice maps for later this week? Gfs is showing a return of freezing rain

i don’t have maps handy but EURO definitely not on board. That seems like a classic GFS weird curveball to disregard. only way that happens is if temps basically stop moderating tomorrow. It would be a historic forecast miss if that were to occur

[DeepFriedEgg]

Bye-bye snowpack

[Phil]

I ended up with 5-6” here depending where I measured. Pretty typical snowfall but my town was the jackpot of the region which is incredibly rare.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

I ended up with 5-6” here depending where I measured. Pretty typical snowfall but my town was the jackpot of the region which is incredibly rare.  

So encouraged to see you blessed in this manner. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Finally made it back to freezing, currently 32.4  It's so warm out LOL!

[Hawksfan2008]

NAM further south and more ice

[Snownerd3000]

21 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The mm5 model is hitting the hood canal hard Thursday with almost a foot of snow caused by strong offshore flow.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

NAM further south and more ice

It might not be enough but i have a strong feeling this will roll into the area a bit south than any model shows. Everything is still inching south as we get closer.

[Deweydog]

Meanwhile, 17 years ago (holy cow…) RIGHT NOW things were starting to wind down after this little gem.

 

[Blizzard777]

9 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Finally made it back to freezing, currently 32.4  It's so warm out LOL!

Same here…just hit 32* but dp still 15*.  Now you need to sit back and wait if all your pipes hold??? 

[bainbridgekid]

Noon Temp/DP spreads show lots of dry air around. Plenty of evaporative cooling potential though that will be greatly mitigated by the warm layer between 1,500 and 7,000 feet.

SEA: 34/7

KPAE: 32/10

BLI: 34/19

OLM: 32/18

PDX: 25/8

[Jakewestsalem]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Forum meet up at the Nashville airport! 

I'll be there at 3pm CST near the Alaska gates!!

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm looking at @Deweydog and @BLI snowman for this one. What would a couple historical comps be for this stretch? This reminds me quite a bit of 2004, but on the other end the temps west of the Cascades have been so impressive. Some kind of hybrid between 2004 and 1968? 

Kind of similar performance to late January/early February 1996 as well, although the deeper snowcover on the eastside helped beef up the temps with that airmass. Spokane had over a foot on the ground and hit -24 on the 2nd after the upper level support had already peaked.

But this one wound up being way colder than 1996 or 2004 for Fraser River outflow, and I definitely think a bit more impressive through the gorge as well in terms of the intensity of the CAA. 1996's advantage was that aforementioned cold pool which got insanely deep in early February as that transitioned to more of a strictly gap based outflow event. 

1968 is still on another level from this, but a similar evolution for sure with the PV briefly jumping the continental divide. Very rare stuff and the numbers especially in the northern Rockies attest to that. 

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

NAM further south and more ice

Still not showing much freezing rain which is good... even though it's slightly more than 12Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw this pic on the FACEBOOKS from Springfield, OR. Hope you are hanging in there Tiger!

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Meanwhile, 17 years ago (holy cow…) RIGHT NOW things were starting to wind down after this little gem.

 

My 2nd favorite Portland viral snow video after this legendary gem. Hoping for some 10th anniversary magic!

 

Edited January 16 by BLI snowman

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw this pic on the FACEBOOKS from Springfield, OR. Hope you are hanging in there Tiger!

Good Lord what mess.   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Yeah, the AIFS. It's available here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]}

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/aifs-blog/2024/first-update-aifs