January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Gummy]

What is the NOAA interactive map link, with the dew points, temp, wind, precip overlays? I can't seem to find it and lost my bookmark.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Thursdays high? This can’t be right. This is why I don’t like high res models. Sometimes they put out ridiculous stuff.

Can we see PDX plz?

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can we see PDX plz?

Also a huge drop from last run.

[Tyler Mode]

3 minutes ago, Gummy said:

What is the NOAA interactive map link, with the dew points, temp, wind, precip overlays? I can't seem to find it and lost my bookmark.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=11&scroll_zoom=false&center=45.719124575395526,-122.32864379882814&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=observation&hazard=true&hazard_type=all&hazard_opacity=70&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,wind,gust&temp_filter=-80,130&gust_filter=0,150&rh_filter=0,100&elev_filter=-300,14000&precip_filter=0.01,18&obs_popup=true&obs_density=60&obs_provider=ALL

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snow flurries starting here. 

[bainbridgekid]

The NAM spits out over half an inch of freezing rain for Seattle on THURSDAY. It’s just silly cold that day with highs below freezing throughout the Sound. Not happening but interesting to see. That model does some very odd things.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

The NAM spits out nearly a half inch of freezing rain around Seattle on THURSDAY. It’s just silly cold that day with highs below freezing throughout the Sound. Not happening but interesting to see. 

It is pulling some Frazer outflow down and pulling cold air from the passes. Looks like a bunch of offshore flow. Also shows snow here all day.

[Mercurial]

22 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

That seems like it would be common in Montana except maybe Troy or Libby?

Libby and Troy actually do okay on snow despite their low elevation simply because that part of the state gets so much moisture.  I just hate probabilistic forecasts that say we are 100% guaranteed to get X amount.

[Blizzard777]

Wow….413 guest! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The Dalles out in the Columbia Gorge getting hammered right now with heavy snow and it’s 12 degrees.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Blizzard777 said:

Wow….413 guest! 

You in a tornado?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Light freezing rain in Federal Way!

[snow maniac]

Light freezing rain here also, 31.0 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Thursdays high? This can’t be right. This is why I don’t like high res models. Sometimes they put out ridiculous stuff.

Can we see PDX plz? Accidentally posted twice. 

Edited January 17 by SilverFallsAndrew

[GHweatherChris]

32 degree rain, LAME!!

[KingstonWX]

Lots of snow reports in the west sound as the precip is moving in. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can we see PDX plz? Accidentally posted twice. 

 

[TacomaWx]

Has just been very light rain so far…but heavier radar returns are moving in. Should drop below freezing soon. 

[umadbro]

My truck has teeth apparently.

[Skagit Weather]

ICON, NAM, and all the mesoscale models (HRRR and the rest of the alphabet soup on Pivotal) have all shifted south on their 00z runs with snowfall estimates. And the RGEM continues to show almost a foot of snow here. The UKMET and Euro are basically the only model runs to show no snow here so it will be interesting to see if they cave when they come out.

31F here with a dp of 27F.

[Andstorm]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

 

Yeah few models are reloading cold and bringing more freezing rain back Thursday night. EURO is really not even close. Another chance for it to demonstrate its superiority. 

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

sold their snowplows?  wow, that's dumb, even for the banana belt

To be honest, I hear rumors of this everywhere, but the roads there were noticeably worse than ours and everyone in the L-C valley says that about Lewiston. I did look for a source and haven't found anything to actually confirm but it would be on point for that city.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Temps as of 7pm. Eugene still freezing at 28. The West Hills down to 20.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

however your cloud is broken

Phish, someone I know lives in Spokane Valley  on the east side and they claimed they were only getting a half inch out of the snow. I hope I didn't jinx it for you but I posted that snow map on in reply.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

ICON, NAM, and all the mesoscale models (HRRR and the rest of the alphabet soup on Pivotal) have all shifted south on their 00z runs with snowfall estimates. And the RGEM continues to show almost a foot of snow here. The UKMET and Euro are basically the only model runs to show no snow here so it will be interesting to see if they cave when they come out.

31F here with a dp of 27F.

Well I guess I should stage my plow after all! 
And were did Tim go? 

[GobBluth]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Temps as of 7pm. Eugene still freezing at 28. The West Hills down to 20.

I think forecasters at nws being optimistic with an overnight jump above freezing anywhere near Portland.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting that the temp at OLM has not dropped since the start of the precip there around 6:30.   Currently light rain and 34.

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Well I guess I should stage my plow after all! 
And were did Tim go? 

He's outside looking at the street lights and cursing us all. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

On 1/15/2024 at 8:13 AM, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Hear me out here, I don't think we're in for a big warm up YET. that low is going to track further east and south, which will give us more cold air from BC and Alberta. The willamette valley will have freezing rain for a bit but then it will convert to snow, and the cold north winds will continue. December 2008 everyone was almost 100% sure it was going to warm up, and it didn't. It could happen again...

 

I'm probably going to be extremely wrong but one can dream.

A lot of this has gone right so far. Low has tracked both south and east, it has been much colder than forecast, and there's still north winds even in Eugene. The convert to snow part probably won't happen, but its definitely going to stay colder longer than forecast.

 

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong but it seems like the low is at about 44N 128W right now, not bad!

[GHweatherChris]

We can't even do freezing rain here.

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

We can't even do freezing rain here.

You got enough unexpected snow blessings last year. We remember! You need to learn to share. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, KingstonWX said:

You got enough unexpected snow blessings last year. We remember!

Wrong guy, guy.  We got 9" of snow last year, it took 11 different "events" to reach that.

[Hawksfan2008]

29.7 degrees with light wind due east here in North Bend. Given wind doesn’t shift until 12 pm tomorrow I am expecting this area gets hit pretty hard. EURO often overdoes east winds which would also overdue the drying element from stronger winds. 

[KingstonWX]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Wrong guy, guy.  We got 9" of snow last year, it took 11 different "events" to reach that.

Nah, I live in Kingston, man. We don't ever get snow, lol. So even you are ahead of me on the 'total enjoyment index'. 

I'm just playing around though

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

29.7 degrees with light wind due east here in North Bend. Given wind doesn’t shift until 12 pm tomorrow I am expecting this area gets hit pretty hard. EURO often overdoes east winds which would also overdue the drying element from stronger winds. 

One note... it can slowly warm even with the east wind.   The entire air mass is warming.   Not saying that will happen but it could go up to 32 or 33 before noon tomorrow.  

[snow_wizard]

The ICON shows warmer air will not make it to King County tomorrow like it showed on earlier runs...30s all day.  Brings some snow into SW King County now.  Just need it to be even more south as the time frame narrows.

[Fircrest]

Just raining here in Fircrest and 34.  I don't see us getting any freezing rain at all. It generally has to be below freezing when the precipitation starts for the liquid to freeze. So I'm not sure why there was so much talk of freezing rain coming by some. The frozen ground really isn't making a difference. Unless things change when the heavier precipitation moves in, this is a non-event. 

Lame.

[LowerGarfield]

29 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The Dalles out in the Columbia Gorge getting hammered right now with heavy snow and it’s 12 degrees.

My brother and sister in-law got an early start today and left Vancouver, WA at 8am or so which is amazing for them since they have two young children and are extreme night owls. They left to beat the ice storm warning. Can't imagine them driving in that now. Got here about 3 hours ago with generally good conditions.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

One note... it can slowly warm even with the east wind.   The entire air mass in warming.   Not saying that will happen but it could go up to 32 or 33 before noon tomorrow.  

That could happen.  Tomorrow is looking pretty chilly at this point though.

[Hawksfan2008]