February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX running an astonishing +3.5 departure on the month. 

[TacomaWx]

How’d the 06z euro look? Nice to see the run last night showing about an inch here. This mornings gfs showed 1.8”. So I definitely like our chances a bit more than 24 hours ago.

Even with these good model runs it’s hard to say how this will go. So close to going either way. If the consensus on the models is too warm then could be great for a lot of people. 1 degree too cold…then most people east of the sound get nothin. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No one showed the EPS for the late month period, but it’s rock solid. 

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No one showed the EPS for the late month period, but it’s rock solid. 

It's soooo consistent.   Glad you are recognizing the EPS now.   It's good for filtering out the operational run noise.   Of course that cuts both ways.   But right now it's in your favor!

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

How’d the 06z euro look? Nice to see the run last night showing about an inch here. This mornings gfs showed 1.8”. So I definitely like our chances a bit more than 24 hours ago.

Even with these good model runs it’s hard to say how this will go. So close to going either way. If the consensus on the models is too warm then could be great for a lot of people. 1 degree too cold…then most people east of the sound get nothin. 

06Z ECMWF. 

[BLI snowman]

NWS is so funny.

[bainbridgekid]

Portland NWS feels like a fever dream sometimes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
507 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

ORZ005-006-WAZ022-039-150030-
/O.NEW.KPQR.WW.Y.0012.240215T0400Z-240216T0000Z/
Lower Columbia-Greater Portland Metro Area-I-
5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of St. Helens, Clatskanie, Hillsboro,
Portland, Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Longview,
Kelso, Castle Rock, Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield,
Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy
507 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 3
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In Oregon, Lower Columbia and Greater Portland Metro
  Area. In Washington, I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County and
  Greater Vancouver Area.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact Thursday morning`s commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While the primary impacts are expected to
  occur later tonight into Thursday, there is roughly a 20 percent
  chance accumulating snow will impact this evening`s commute. If
  and when precipitation does change to snow, it can likely be
  assumed that precipitation will remain snow until tapering off
  to drizzle or light rain Thursday. Most likely areas to be
  impacted are north and east of Interstate 205, as well as
  elevations above 500 feet and the eastern slopes of the Coast
  Range in western Washington County.

[bainbridgekid]

12z NAM was the snowiest run yet for Seattle. Kuchera map.

 

[umadbro]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z NAM was the snowiest run yet for Seattle. Kuchera map.

 

The difference between the 12km and and 3 km is astronomical 

[umadbro]

[RaleighHillsRunner]

8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Portland NWS feels like a fever dream sometimes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
507 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

ORZ005-006-WAZ022-039-150030-
/O.NEW.KPQR.WW.Y.0012.240215T0400Z-240216T0000Z/
Lower Columbia-Greater Portland Metro Area-I-
5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of St. Helens, Clatskanie, Hillsboro,
Portland, Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Longview,
Kelso, Castle Rock, Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield,
Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy
507 AM PST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 3
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In Oregon, Lower Columbia and Greater Portland Metro
  Area. In Washington, I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County and
  Greater Vancouver Area.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact Thursday morning`s commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While the primary impacts are expected to
  occur later tonight into Thursday, there is roughly a 20 percent
  chance accumulating snow will impact this evening`s commute. If
  and when precipitation does change to snow, it can likely be
  assumed that precipitation will remain snow until tapering off
  to drizzle or light rain Thursday. Most likely areas to be
  impacted are north and east of Interstate 205, as well as
  elevations above 500 feet and the eastern slopes of the Coast
  Range in western Washington County.

Was surprised to wake up with this advisory posted! Guess they aren’t taking any chances after ‘the incident’  

[T-Town]

11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z NAM was the snowiest run yet for Seattle. Kuchera map.

 

Let’s do it!!

[Doinko]

High-end (95th percentile) snowfall totals
approach 8 inches for portions of the Portland metro. All in all, the
setup with this system is very similar to the Jan 2017 surprise
Portland snowstorm, where decaying low pressure failed to advect
enough mild air to counter the lowering snow levels due to heavy
precip rates. That event led to 8 inches of snow at PDX, with over a
foot of snow in some portions of the metro area. With all this in
mind,

All this talk about snow should not mask the fact that there is still
a 40-50% chance elevations below 500 feet will not see any
accumulating snow. So don`t be surprised if wet snow mixes in from
time to time but the p-type never fully changes over. While
confidence in all the details of this system remain remarkably low
for something that begins to affect us in Periods 1-2, confidence is
high in THIS IMPORTANT DETAIL: If precipitation fully changes from
rain to snow in your location, assume precipitation will remain snow
for the remainder of this event. This could happen as early as this
afternoon, but is more likely tonight into Thursday. If rain fully
changes to snow, it means the necessary work has been done by latent
heat processes to cool the column enough to bring snow down to your
elevation. Therefore, with the lack of significant warm advection,
the column should remain cold enough for precipitation to continue as
snow until it tapers off.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Freezing fog here this morning, with a low of 31 so far.

[MossMan]

Oh boy…It’s out. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX running an astonishing +3.5 departure on the month. 

At least they will be eating into that pretty good the next four days.

It looks like areas down the valley are faring a little better with SLE and EUG at +1.5 at +3.3 respectively.

+2.7 for Hillsboro, +2.0 for McMinnville. Vancouver is unusually close to PDX with a +3.4.

[Slushy Inch]

Woke up and all my apps switched to light made wtf.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Woke up and all my apps switched to light made wtf.

Slushy inch incoming.

[Slushy Inch]

Would be a huge bust at this point to see no snow at least in the air. Nearly every model going for with some snow for puget sound. Anyone want other meteograms?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF. 

At this stage, I would be very surprised not to see a Kitsap County and Hood Canal special. It has been a very consistent theme in the models.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like BLI has NNE winds gusting around 30 with a temp of 38-39 and a DP of 17. Nice to see another continental airmass brush the region this month, at very least.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

38 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z NAM was the snowiest run yet for Seattle. Kuchera map.

 

12-16 for here and Euro shows around 10. Major event about to happen here but where is the cold? It is 10 at my cabin so colder air is making its way down.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like BLI has NNE winds gusting around 30 with a temp of 38-39 and a DP of 17. Nice to see another continental airmass brush the region this month, at very least.

Small victories, right?

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Small victories, right?

All we get sometimes in this life, Andrew my friend.

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Would be a huge bust at this point to see no snow at least in the air. Nearly every model going for with some snow for puget sound. Anyone want other meteograms?

Arlington airport please! 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Arlington airport please! 

 

[Christensen87]

I think there’s some good potential for over-performance tonight.  

[bainbridgekid]

12z increased snow amounts for both Seattle and Portland.

 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF. 

Euro is the only model that shows that much precip reaching southern Vancouver Island.  
 

Dropped to 28F last night. 31F now with flurries and graupel showers. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

YVR recorded a freeze this morning, but wind kept things mixed at BLI. Might be driving back to Vancouver in flurries tonight but not expecting more than that here.

[The Blob]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Many prayerz of healing for you. 

I'm not sick, I just had a annual check up.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

12-16 for here and Euro shows around 10. Major event about to happen here but where is the cold? It is 10 at my cabin so colder air is making its way down.

Lots of chilly dry air funneling down the Fraser right now. Low dew points plus high precip rates should do the rest. Your turn to score!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, The Blob said:

I'm not sick, I just had a annual check up.

Here's to another year of generalized wellness. 

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

12-16 for here and Euro shows around 10. Major event about to happen here but where is the cold? It is 10 at my cabin so colder air is making its way down.

Not going to be any type of noticeable low level cold with this.  The “cold” will come when precip arrives.  Looks like you’re in the best spot for this.  Probably 5-8”

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane not too impressed. maybe 1"

[bainbridgekid]

12z WRF back to being snowy for Seattle (and especially the South Sound) after the fluky dry 00z last night. No dice for Portland.

 

 

[AlTahoe]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

How the hell did that happen?

It was our coldest March ever breaking the 1952 record by 1.2F. Pretty remarkable 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not going to be any type of noticeable low level cold with this.  The “cold” will come when precip arrives.  Looks like you’re in the best spot for this.  Probably 5-8”

Yep i had about 7 in my head for a total but could easily be more if the system has more punch. i figure 7-1 ratio and most rain storms have been around 1-1.5 inches of rain. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z WRF back to being snowy for Seattle after the fluky dry 00z last night.

 

I knew that was a turd run, it even showed the Olympics getting very little. 

[RCola]

I'll glady take the slushy inch or two in Seattle. That will more than double our snowfall this season.

My hope is that the global models are underestimating precip rates with this one. That would allow for more evaporative cooling and a snowier outcome. It should be noted that the Euro in particular completely whiffed on precip rates during the east coast snowstorm Monday. Surprisingly, the RAP and 3km NAM performed best.