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October 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Here's the snow thus far

By far the most impressive October storm I've witnessed here since 2012 when I bought property. Ended up with 9 inches of powder and is currently 22 degrees down from 24 at 9am. 

Sorry guys I ended up getting chased around the outside of the building at work by a whacked out homeless guy on drugs...That was a first! I was mostly worried about the snot coming out of his nose as

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Slow down there, I'm still trying to think of something I can be severely disappointed about.

Not going to get much snow with highs around 50. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not going to get much snow with highs around 50. 

The high temp is pretty irrelevant if the precip comes through overnight or in the early morning.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Andrew is growing out his winter coat early. Has to be a good sign!!

Get used to it sugar. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

The ignore feature is a miracle :wub:

I have used it on you many times.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just looked at the metograms from the GEM and they have SEA dropping to 23 next Monday.  Now that would be one to write home about.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Just looked at the metograms from the GEM and they have SEA dropping to 23 next Monday.  Now that would be one to write home about.

Save that ink for January. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Mid 50s for highs? Why is that impressive? A bit chilly but nothing that great for here.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Look like the Euro has a high of 48 for SEA on Friday.  The chilliest day for max temp.  Needless to say that would be quite noticeable after what we've been having!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Save that ink for January. 

Yup. All the cold being wasted early again.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Mid 50s for highs? Why is that impressive? A bit chilly but nothing that great for here.

Just wait and see what happens.  I think you will be pleased.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just wait and see what happens.  I think you will be pleased.

Hey it’s happened once since 2014! It can happen again!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup. All the cold being wasted early again.

This is totally wrong thinking.  Not sure where you got this idea from.  It doesn't work that way.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Look like the Euro has a high of 48 for SEA on Friday.  The chilliest day for max temp.  Needless to say that would be quite noticeable after what we've been having!

Cloudy with some precip that day.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

This is totally wrong thinking.  Not sure where you got this idea from.  It doesn't work that way.

It has every time since I moved to Oregon in 1989. So that’s all I remember. I don’t care about history before that all that much because our access to Arctic air continues to be further cut off every year.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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To put all of this into perspective the coldest high for Seattle in October 1949 was 51.  In spite of that it had what still stands as their coldest low temp on record for October.  The high of 51 is chillier than it sounds given the situation.

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  • Snow 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It has every time since I moved to Oregon in 1989. So that’s all I remember. I don’t care about history before that all that much because our access to Arctic air continues to be further cut off every year.

We got a great cold pattern at the end of October 2003 and we all know what happened in January!

Same with the end of October 2006. An enjoyable winter followed.

I am guessing you were either out of town or passed out at a frat party for both of those events though. ;)

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17 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We got a great cold pattern at the end of October 2003 and we all know what happened in January!

Same with the end of October 2006. An enjoyable winter followed.

I am guessing you were either out of town or passed out at a frat party for both of those events though. ;)

I liked beer!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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23 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We got a great cold pattern at the end of October 2003 and we all know what happened in January!

Same with the end of October 2006. An enjoyable winter followed.

I am guessing you were either out of town or passed out at a frat party for both of those events though. ;)

I don’t remember those Octobers so I guess it’s confirmation bias. Were all of those niñas?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I forgot about the cold at the end of October 1995 too! :(

That is still PDX's record low for Halloween. Crappy January/February followed.

I was thinking about that one the other day. Extremely mild November followed. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, iFred said:

https://theweatherforums.com - let me know if that works for you folks. If I don't see any problems, we are going full https later today.

Looks good 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looking forward to chilly weather. So from what I understand a classic snow situation for the Puget Sound would have to be a low circulating moisture off the coast or some type of over-running event. Is it possible for moisture to slide down the BC coast so you would have to deal with convergence zones or battle with cold air and warm pacific air?  

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8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It has every time since I moved to Oregon in 1989. So that’s all I remember. I don’t care about history before that all that much because our access to Arctic air continues to be further cut off every year.

Can you prove our access to Arctic air is being cut off more each year?  We have actually done reasonably well bringing in cold air masses up here beginning with Jan 2007.  There have been a number of years that we have scored some decent cold shots.  No doubt we are overdue for a top tier cold wave though ie highs below 25 lows below 10.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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48 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

To put all of this into perspective the coldest high for Seattle in October 1949 was 51.  In spite of that it had what still stands as their coldest low temp on record for October.  The high of 51 is chillier than it sounds given the situation.

Wow only 51 in 1949? I assumed there was colder days in that month than that. We had a 49/39 day on 10/9 and 54/32 on 10/10...then the last 4 days of the month were 48/32, 46/34, 49/30 and 48/32 on Halloween 2019.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Yet another gusty south wind day.  We've had a bunch of those lately.  Kind of weird to see the temps so mild when the PNA is now down to -4.  The 12z EPS seems to have finally stabilized on a solution pretty similar to the operational ECMWF for the end of the week although a bit colder looking for the 500mb level.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wow only 51 in 1949? I assumed there was colder days in that month than that. We had a 49/39 day on 10/9 and 54/32 on 10/10...then the last 4 days of the month were 48/32, 46/34, 49/30 and 48/32 on Halloween 2019.

That was downtown Seattle.  I can't find m SEA records for that month...the lowest max was actually 50, but that was with north winds and dry air.  This time of year it takes something to block out the sun to come up with a really low max in spite of how cold the air mass is.  It was also earlier in the month than most October cold waves.  The mins were super impressive in 1949 as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Geeze.  I had forgotten how impressive that cold snap was in early October last year.  Amazing how much more often that happens with warm or neutral ENSO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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36 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

Looking forward to chilly weather. So from what I understand a classic snow situation for the Puget Sound would have to be a low circulating moisture off the coast or some type of over-running event. Is it possible for moisture to slide down the BC coast so you would have to deal with convergence zones or battle with cold air and warm pacific air?  

The 12z GFS shows a pretty classic setup for valley snow (if it was winter). Getting lows to dig south along the coast with cold air is great for us. Places right to the north of those lows usually have a good combo of precipitation and cold air to make snow. 
 

The other main way is from overrunning events. Warm moist air from the ocean runs into an already established continental airmass. That can give us huge storms, but it usually warms up as storm systems eventually start tracking north and giving our area warmer SW winds from the ocean. 
 

In the end we are super reliant on the winds. Need to get rid of the influence of the ocean in most cases. Offshore winds happen in most scenarios. 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  I had forgotten how impressive that cold snap was in early October last year.  Amazing how much more often that happens with warm or neutral ENSO.

It was 3 cold snaps spread out across the month. They were all impressive for October. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Thanks. I seem to recall when i was young that our big snow events(region-wide) the weather forecast would show lows associated with cold air masses sliding down from Canada. If I recall correctly the December 1996 snowstorm set up in a very similar pattern. It just seems that we deal with so many dry air masses. Or if we do moisture with a cold air mass it is hit or miss as to where there is going to be accumulating snow.  

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42 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

Looking forward to chilly weather. So from what I understand a classic snow situation for the Puget Sound would have to be a low circulating moisture off the coast or some type of over-running event. Is it possible for moisture to slide down the BC coast so you would have to deal with convergence zones or battle with cold air and warm pacific air?  

For Puget Sound to do really well there are a few good scenarios.

1. Arctic front with a lot of moisture streaming in under an offshore low / convergence from the front itself.

2. Backwash behind a departing low pressure system which tracks east of the Cascades south of Seattle.

3. Overrunning from a low tracking over Southern WA (low that remain west of Olympia or so are terrible).

4. Convergence zone with a cold enough air mass for snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

Thanks. I seem to recall when i was young that our big snow events(region-wide) the weather forecast would show lows associated with cold air masses sliding down from Canada. If I recall correctly the December 1996 snowstorm set up in a very similar pattern. It just seems that we deal with so many dry air masses. Or if we do moisture with a cold air mass it is hit or miss as to where there is going to be accumulating snow.  

Usually winters that are snowy everywhere get their snows at different times.  It takes different scenarios for most places.  Situations where very cold air is in place with a big low to pump in lots of moisture can happen and most places get a good snowfall from the same event.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Speaking of snow...one of my favorites in recent times was the Christmas snow of 2017.  That is a case where everything went absolutely right and we got more snow than we really had a right to.  That one was a two parter for my area and both halves went perfectly.  Part 1 was on Christmas Eve Day and it was an overrunning situation where it was JUST cold enough for the precip to be of decent quality snow.  We picked up about an inch and a quarter from that.  Part two came late Christmas Eve and Christmas Morning and was caused by the cold backwash from a surface low that tracked east of the Cascades a bit south of Seattle.  We got 3 inches from that with the heaviest snow falling just after sunrise on Christmas Morning.  Probably the most enjoyable snow event of any Christmas for me and it was a total case of threading the needle.

2008 had more snow on the ground on Christmas, but it was wet and not as pretty as 2017.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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