Hyperbolic Trendz Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I think Andrew writing off December altogether was the turning point. Well I might have read it wrong, but I think TWL just recently canceled Winter in Eugene until the end of time. He’s really testing the limits of the reverse wishcast. Although who am I to question when it’s worked in his favor before? 5 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: A Dec-Jan event of any significance will never impact areas this far south again in our lifetimes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Runtmc said: Well I might have read it wrong, but I think TWL just recently canceled Winter in Eugene until the end of time. He’s really testing the limits of the reverse wishcast. Although who am I to question when it’s worked in his favor before? That storm Eugene had in February 2019 was pretty insane. So it’s worked for him before. It’s kind of the opposite of Jim. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Next weekend seems potentially chilly. A nice storm impacts California too. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That storm Eugene had in February 2019 was pretty insane. So it’s worked for him before. It’s kind of the opposite of Jim. Ironically Jim calmly threw in the towel on this coming event 2 days ago. When I saw that... I thought this could be a big one! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Does anyone have the charts of where the lows go on the GEFS? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Some areas of the Northern Oregon Cascades and Coast range could see up to 8" of precip in the next 72 hours. Some potential for landslides and debris flows in the burn scars. Likely many of the smaller streams and coastal rivers will flood. Looks like 2.5"-3" or so for the valleys the next two days. Nice event, but not quite enough to ensure a wet December for the I-5 stations given how dry it's been so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Salem has had 6 days of 50+ highs in a row, the past 5 have been exactly 50. Looks like they will run that streak to 9. They’ve also had rain 11 of the past 13 days, but it has been very light for the most part. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 It’s another “warm” morning by Dec. standards. Currently 46F and cloudy. Never got below it overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 52 minutes ago, Cloud said: Clear PSCZ signature for the N. Sound. Someone usually scores really well inside that triangle. Pick me!! 2 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Anybody living north of Seattle or In the foothills will get hit good on Monday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 I’m thinking the snow probably won’t end up being much at my house. Probably some flakes in the air atleast and maybe a slushy trace at best. Someone’s gonna get something though! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Currently at 2.60” for December. Pretty good chance we get to average precipitation atleast...quite possibly above average. Looking like this month will be above average temperature wise but the number will probably come down a bit. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Zzzzzzzz 1 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 The next few days down here will at least be a lot more interesting than the last week. Heavy and warm rain turning into a sharp cold front on Monday. I’ll take it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Zzzzzzzz Sorry I was wrong Andrew. Tiger is actually the #1 weenie on here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 12z GFS is warmer than the previous run at KSEA by about 4 degrees. Need the low to track further south like 6z to really stand a chance. Will be interesting to see the ECMWF 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, wxmet said: 12z GFS is warmer than the previous run at KSEA by about 4 degrees. Need the low to track further south like 6z to really stand a chance. Will be interesting to see the ECMWF 12z. Bummer that would effect south bothell. This feels like a rollar coaster ride where it goes up and everyone celebrates and when it goes down its bummer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: The next few days down here will at least be a lot more interesting than the last week. Heavy and warm rain turning into a sharp cold front on Monday. I’ll take it. Yep, first "highlight" of the month even if heavy rain and south wind is what we expect in the winter. I've learned not to take it for granted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Sorry I was wrong Andrew. Tiger is actually the #1 weenie on here. Wow, I didn't realize I had already logged in and started posting this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Canadian has it going through about Seattle and then going east, slightly SE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Mild, breezy night here, with a low of just 48. Looks like a good old fashioned soaker starting later today through Monday. Then sharply lowering snow levels and colder later Monday through the rest of the week. Sort of a fun progression. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: The next few days down here will at least be a lot more interesting than the last week. Heavy and warm rain turning into a sharp cold front on Monday. I’ll take it. And the next few days is going to be quite bipolar around here as there will be a define line between snow and rain. This still looks quite marginal and not everyone will score. we really need an arctic air mass that entrench the region for weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: And the next few days is going to be quite bipolar around here as there will be a define line between snow and rain. This still looks quite marginal and not everyone will score. we really need an arctic air mass that entrench the region for weeks. Good point. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 ECMWF is further south on this run. Gonna have some nice lowland totals. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Roughly the same location as the 06z. I get half as much snow on this one so I think there is a slight move south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 When they come out can someone please put the ensemble members low images up? Curious to see where the average track lies relative to the op. Thank you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 We’re pretty well within the believable time range now. Seems like we’re locking in on a solution. Lot of this will be dependent on time of day...hopefully the bulk of the precip falls outside of the peak daylight hours. Either way looks like the odds have bumped up this morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Euro looks like a beautiful track. I'd expect this run to spit out widespread 3-5" totals North and East of Seattle. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Bam! This is more than any previous run has shown, I believe. Quite a bit more than the 06z and 00z at least. Do you believe? I believe!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Exceptionally delicate setup. Gonna just have to watch it play out. 3 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: For that time period (2-7PM)... Surface temps: Either side of 35 925mb temps: 0/-1c 850mb temps: -2/-4c Still very borderline but good precip rates should help. What will help in this marginal situation is strong 925mb winds out of the NW that the ECMWF is depicting which will support good CAA and offset any melting from that level to the surface. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Exceptionally delicate setup. Gonna just have to watch it play out. The difference between 1,000 foot and 200 foot snow levels in a setup like this is a matter of about 2 degrees. Impossible to expect models to nail things down that well, but the potential is there inside 48 hours which is more than we could say about anytime in the last 9 months. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: The difference between 1,000 foot and 200 foot snow levels in a setup like this is a matter of about 2 degrees. Impossible to expect models to nail things down that well, but the potential is there inside 48 hours which is more than we could say about anytime in the last 9 months. Going to get buried here either way! 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Can someone post the Oregon map? I need to know if snow will accumulate above 1500'. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 If the 6z or 12z verifies I'll vomit. 1 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: I would have to imagine NWS Seattle will mention something about it in their afternoon AFD. Very precarious position to be in. Don't mention anything and it happens to occur, many people will be extremely caught off-guard when 3+ inches falls Monday afternoon/evening (let alone the more extreme amounts possible). Sound the alarm and it doesn't pan out, a bunch of angry members of the public who don't know any better will shout from their rooftops about how bad weather forecasters are here. Sh*tty either way. They need to mention it at this point. Even if it’s just putting rain/snow mix in the forecast. Show min/max/likely snow maps and keep watching till Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Current Oregon snow pack. Doing well, near to moderately above average. Will be interesting to compare how these numbers look in a few days after the AR event. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, Jesse said: Current Oregon snow pack. Doing well, near to moderately above average. Will be interesting to compare how these numbers look in a few days after the AR event. It won't be pretty. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 I'm liking the Euro for my area. Fun to follow but very marginal. Looks like Randy is in the 6 to 8 inch area. The convergence zone setup will be a big factor on who gets the most if any 45 currently, 3.67" for the month, 62.35" for the year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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