Deweydog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: The complete rest of his tweet. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1346499533904236545?s=20 Seems pretty black and white to me... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You never post ensembles for me anymore. I sorry Andrew Looks like some members below -5c at the end there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: You are chock full of wisdom. Thanks. Sometimes we all need to be reminded of weenie fundamentals. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: Seems pretty black and white to me... It really is, I agree. But it seems like the potential for a delay is there. In a nutshell, trying to understand the SSW is gonna drive one crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Low solar. It just means the SSW is having a major impact. The "reversal" in the stratosphere is to be expected. Actually, he goes on to say it will complicate things and delay the full impact. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: It really is, I agree. But it seems like the potential for a delay is there. In a nutshell, trying to understand the SSW is gonna drive one crazy. I was being a smart a** about your post. I have no clue as to what that would mean for us and prospects of an Arctic front moving over my house in the next 60 days. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just looked at my stats and the rain event on January 2nd was the biggest daily rainfall in January in 12 years. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: I was being a smart a** about your post. I have no clue as to what that would mean for us and prospects of an Arctic front moving over my house in the next 60 days. Oh , I just realized exactly what you meant now. I didn't see it! So I'm using a google chrome extension that allows my browser to be in dark mode. hahaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: Actually, he goes on to say it will complicate things and delay the full impact. I knew it. I just knew we were gonna get snow in March this year. Might still get something in Jan/Feb though of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Up to 3.31” of rain this month...20.32” since October 1st. Been plenty wet...atleast hoping for some lower snow levels at some point. we have plenty of time to score some snow down here in Tacoma before winter winds down. If not I’m hoping to be able to head up to orcas island and see some snow at the top of Mt.Constitution sometime late this month or next month. Over the years I’ve been up there late January through March there’s usually some snow up there...need some atleast 1000’ snow levels soon! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, luminen said: I knew it. I just knew we were gonna get snow in March this year. Might still get something in Jan/Feb though of course. What on gods (depressingly) green earth are you ever even talking about? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, luminen said: I knew it. I just knew we were gonna get snow in March this year. Might still get something in Jan/Feb though of course. I wouldn't go that far. It's a potential, but who the knows at this point. Remember, he may very well be referring to an East coast delay. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 At least PDX scored a freeze plus ten this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Big improvement on the GEFS 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, SalemDuck said: Big improvement on the GEFS Looks pretty similar to the op: 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, SalemDuck said: Big improvement on the GEFS Not even sure how this can be called an improvement lol. Ninas usually are better in the second half...hopefully that proves true this winter as well. So far we’ve just had a trace of snowfall here in Tacoma on the 21st. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Big improvement on the GEFS Yup 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Not even sure how this can be called an improvement lol. Ninas usually are better in the second half...hopefully that proves true this winter as well. So far we’ve just had a trace of snowfall here in Tacoma on the 21st. It is an improvement if you look at the trend in relation to the current pattern. We want the jet to retract and the AL to go away. Baby steps I guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: It is an improvement if you look at the trend in relation to the current pattern. We want the jet to retract and the AL to go away. Baby steps I guess I understand that it’s better than the previous run and all it’s just still pretty bleak. At this point I’d be happy if we got some 1000’ snow levels late this month or next month. Haven’t given up on this winter yet still lots of time for it to snow down in the lowlands. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks like the majority of Europe is going into the freezer mid month. Possibly feeling the effect of the SSW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 47 minutes ago, Jesse said: Actually, he goes on to say it will complicate things and delay the full impact. Ah, see that now. He's pretty vague on the ramifications, though. I saw "reversal" and thought it was referring to the wind reversal that naturally occurs: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/SSW-identified-from-the-wind-reversal-and-wind-tendency-definitions_tbl1_315851065 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 This straw-grasping is like the 6-10 Giants relying on the 7-9 Washington FT to lose to an Eagles coach (who gives up and tanks during the game) in order to get into the playoffs at this point. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 GEFS day 16. I’m sure someone will still say this is terrible and winter is cancelled. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: GEFS day 16. I’m sure someone will still say this is terrible and winter is cancelled. Ways out, but at least good to see LR ensembles trending in the right direction. And I don't care what anyone says, the CMC looks promising at day 10. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I understand that it’s better than the previous run and all it’s just still pretty bleak. At this point I’d be happy if we got some 1000’ snow levels late this month or next month. Haven’t given up on this winter yet still lots of time for it to snow down in the lowlands. I gotta say, this got that 2018 feel to it where everything feels bleak until the models completely flipped. In the mean time, I will remain optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 GEPS day 16. On the same page as the GEFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: GEPS day 16. On the same page as the GEFS. Seasonably cool. Better than the current pattern at least. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 I’m up to February 7th 2018 with that thread review...The EPS looked terrible and Matt mowed! 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Ways out, but at least good to see LR ensembles trending in the right direction. And I don't care what anyone says, the CMC looks promising at day 10. Euro, not so much. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 I bet NAM already picked up the SSW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . . 2 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . . And the funny thing was it showed my area as getting the least amount of snow... 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 At least the 12Z GFS is a warm outlier on the ensembles with a few members dropping below -10. It's hard to get excited about ridging that might move to the sweet spot 15 days out. I guess any change is a good change at this point. 44 after a low of 40. 2.77" so far this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: And the funny thing was it showed my area as getting the least amount of snow... But it looks like the total it predicted was fairly close for you. It showed me at around 12" but I ended up with around 6" edit: I looked again. You had at least 12" I think didn't you? It showed you with around 6" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . . Sad time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . . Looks like it called for 11'' for me. I got 3 or 4. Nice event, but a bit of a let down. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Euro, not so much. EPS is better and is showing signs of retrogression at hour 300. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Looks like it called for 11'' for me. I got 3 or 4. Nice event, but a bit of a let down. I will have to check on Portland... not sure if the 22.8 inches verified there. Also possible that Troutdale did end up with 31.8 inches as shown. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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