Blizzard777 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: 0.83” so far today. We’ve been in the sweet spot so far today with steady rain for 9 hours now. North edge of the rainfall migrated down to about seattle earlier today but never made it down this way so it’s been consistent rainfall with no stoppage. .75 on the other side of the bay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 .33” so far on the day. 44 and raining. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Conflicting reports! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just checked out the end of the 18z GEFS, it looked to me the block was left amplified, but had not drifted as far west as the previous run. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, Jesse said: Except in December 1996 the cold barely penetrated south of the U-district. That map shows it extending into California. If that was anything like Feb 2014, places south of Deschutes missed all of the arctic air. I was having highs 38-42 and snow only fell in AM hours. But I know Redmond had a nice blast in 2014. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Rainin’ out!!!️ 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just checked out the end of the 18z GEFS, it looked to me the block was left amplified, but had not drifted as far west as the previous run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Hoping for some nice high water the next couple days. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Wowzers! That 12z EPS was pretty crazy. So much for this just being cold onshore flow coming up. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: Wowzers! That 12z EPS was pretty crazy. So much for this just being cold onshore flow coming up. Chill bruh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 33 minutes ago, MossMan said: JAYA and TWL are not onboard. Why? The progression is exactly the same on every model. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Hoping for some nice high water the next couple days. That sounds like a good time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: Chill bruh. Aren't we allowed to get excited about great model runs? Sheesh. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Why? The progression is exactly the same on every model. in the case of jaya probably because he is former pro met that remains reasonably skeptical about 10 day+ model solutions in the case of twl it is a deeply internalized subconscious hatred of January due to crashing on his bike in mid Jan when he was 9. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 39 minutes ago, Jesse said: Except in December 1996 the cold barely penetrated south of the U-district. That map shows it extending into California. The low level cold went further south than that. There was a big ice storm here, and it did snow a lot on the transition event. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, OysterPrintout said: in the case of jaya probably because he is former pro met that remains reasonably skeptical about 10 day+ model solutions in the case of twl it is a deeply internalized subconscious hatred of January due to crashing on his bike in mid Jan when he was 9. It's actually inside of day 10 now, and the models just keep getting more bullish. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's actually inside of day 10 now, and the models just keep getting more bullish. I don't think Morgan Palmer was onboard in 2017 even the day before. Can't wait for the 0z runs tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, Timmy said: That sounds like a good time Good time to check out the Gorge waterfalls. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's actually inside of day 10 now, and the models just keep getting more bullish. He did mention lack of a SE ridge, which is a valid concern, and no clear or strong MJO signal. Looking at all the MJO models, locations vary a lot and few are strong with the signal. Good reason to be optimistic, but nobody should call it a slam dunk yet. We have seen models with tremendous agreement even within a few days and it still turns out wrong. But I am optimistic. Cool or cold I get snow either way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 The control model on the 18z GFS ensemble shows 18 inches of snow for SEA through the 27th. I could live with that. The mean shows a little over 5. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 I think it’s safe to say Jim has told EVERYONE. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: He did mention lack of a SE ridge, which is a valid concern, and no clear or strong MJO signal. Looking at all the MJO models, locations vary a lot and few are strong with the signal. Good reason to be optimistic, but nobody should call it a slam dunk yet. We have seen models with tremendous agreement even within a few days and it still turns out wrong. But I am optimistic. Cool or cold I get snow either way. It's hard to ignore the ensemble means we have been seeing. That -NAO is what makes it work. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just noticed that the Euro shows some pretty major winds tomorrow night. 991mb low right through the tip of the Olympic Peninsula. 2 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think it’s safe to say Jim has told EVERYONE. And if you aren't on board, you're stupid. 1 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Just noticed that the Euro shows some pretty major winds tomorrow night. 991mb low right through the tip of the Olympic Peninsula. This would make sense as I just filled my car with the 3 five gallon containers I use for my generator. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 30 minutes ago, Jesse said: Good time to check out the Gorge waterfalls. Eagle Creek is back! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 37 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: He did mention lack of a SE ridge, which is a valid concern, and no clear or strong MJO signal. Looking at all the MJO models, locations vary a lot and few are strong with the signal. Good reason to be optimistic, but nobody should call it a slam dunk yet. We have seen models with tremendous agreement even within a few days and it still turns out wrong. But I am optimistic. Cool or cold I get snow either way. Does seem odd the MJO would be quiet with such a momentous pattern change and in a post-SSW environment... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: I saw that too and thought it was just a model fluke. Then I saw this... Cool can't wait for the next round of power outages. This will be #6 since Labor Day. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I saw that too and thought it was just a model fluke. Then I saw this... How many runs has the euro been showing this? Might be a really bad time for a windstorm with the high soil saturation. How’s it comparing to other models? 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 We should go over an inch on the day shortly...0.96” currently. Lots more rain coming too. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Signal for cold goes well into February. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I saw that too and thought it was just a model fluke. Then I saw this... Absurd. That would rival the Hannakuh Eve Storm. Doesn't feel like anything major like that would happen in this setup though. Euro does feel fluky. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Euro has had a number of big ripper duds this storm season so far.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Absurd. That would rival the Hannakuh Eve Storm. Doesn't feel like anything major like that would happen in this setup though. Euro does feel fluky. Yeah...I just don't see it. The WRF shows nothing at all. The gradients shown on the ECMWF itself don't seem to warrant those kinds of winds. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, iFred said: He followed me on Twitter, I posed a CFS snow map for fun, and then he blocked me. THANKS MORGAN. Morgan is probably the least fun met we have. But who knows, he's probably also the most accurate. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: Morgan is probably the least fun met we have. But who knows, he's probably also the most accurate. No, Rich Marriott is. He is the hate God of snow in Seattle. 1 4 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Gradient Keeper Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Day 4 Past 4 runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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