smerfylicious Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just imagine if that slid SE a couple hundred miles...a man can dream... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 It's also possible that a transient period of zonal flow could be necessary for a pattern reset. That happened as recently as January 2019. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Safe to say the warm first 3 weeks of January will be coming an abrupt halt. Winter is FINALLY here! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 R.I.P., Blob. P stands for Pain, in this regard. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Having seizures, time for bed. 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: Having seizures, time for bed. Get some rest. Hope you feel better in the morning. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 A very de-amplified Pacific. Fairly negative -AO. This zonal pattern is advanced by a few days compared to the 00z. Maybe by the final frames we can see us break out of it. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Some March 2012 type potential in the long range. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Height contours are pretty much sinusoidal in nature. Very flat Pacific with a calm SE Asia. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Happy to see some more hope for next week as it gets closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Extension. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Extension. Phil said it would retract. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Phil said it would retract. I'd trust him over a long range GFS run. Could also be a transient feature before a retraction. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 End of the run does get noticeably more blocky. Would rely on some retrogression, though. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Yeah I don't think my house is going to get 140" of snow in the next 15 days. Thanks for playing GFS. Hopefully I can score 24-36" though as it looks like we go right back to ridging after this. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 The 06z GFS is sliding in a new rug under our feet. 1 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 41 degrees with some light rain moving off to the east. There is still a sliver of hope! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, AlTahoe said: Yeah I don't think my house is going to get 140" of snow in the next 15 days. Thanks for playing GFS. Hopefully I can score 24-36" though as it looks like we go right back to ridging after this. I'd put better odds of you getting 100'' than I would on Monterey getting a trace amount of snowfall. I lived in Salinas for 13 years and the lowest I can remember the snow level on Mt. Toro was probably 2500-3000'. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 hours ago, Kolk1604 said: Much snowier run. Thru next Friday I’m back to being in the pretty lavender zone! Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Hopefully the 12z won't crap on us. Maybe just fart a bit. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Currently 38 degrees., Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Have a feeling hood canal area is going to get hit hard sometime over the next week. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Overcast, 37˚F, overnight low 36. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Hopefully the 12z won't crap on us. Maybe just fart a bit. If it does it better smell like roses! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, jakerepp said: I'd put better odds of you getting 100'' than I would on Monterey getting a trace amount of snowfall. I lived in Salinas for 13 years and the lowest I can remember the snow level on Mt. Toro was probably 2500-3000'. Snow levels actually get down to around 1000' in that area on Monday so the hills could get a dusting. I grew up in Morgan Hill and it snowed in town 3 times as a kid. We went sledding once on Redwood retreat road (Mt Madonna) in a really cold storm (Dec 1998?) and that was only at 1900' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Have a feeling hood canal area is going to get hit hard sometime over the next week. Also Arlington north! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: Snow levels actually get down to around 1000' in that area on Monday so the hills could get a dusting. I grew up in Morgan Hill and it snowed in town 3 times as a kid. We went sledding once on Redwood retreat road (Mt Madonna) in a really cold storm (Dec 1998?) and that was only at 1900' Morgan Hill! I only ever remember driving through there on the way to SJC. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Actually a hair more than the 06z through Wednesday night for Puget Sound... Quite a bit more here! If it verifies, Sunday will be just a warning shot and the main action will come later. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Actually a hair more than the 06z through Wednesday night for Puget Sound... Most of this falls on Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning. At this point, if we could squeeze 3'' out, I'd be pretty thrilled. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: For Oregon folks... I could live with this 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Great 06z run. Looks like the 12z is in keeping with these better trends. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 The GEM’s track for Tuesday is perfection. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just some really good laset minute trends Andrew. @SilverFallsAndrew 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 That gfs snow map shows about 10 inches here. I've lived here long enuff to know that is possible in this pattern. We got smashed here in 2007 2008 winter with all the cold troughs and fronts over running after the trough. We had 48 inches that season followed by 54 in 08 09. Crazy couple years. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: That gfs snow map shows about 10 inches here. I've lived here long enuff to know that is possible in this pattern. We got smashed here in 2007 2008 winter with all the cold troughs and fronts over running after the trough. We had 48 inches that season followed by 54 in 08 09. Crazy couple years. I can still remember your area getting smacked in just about every setup in 2007-08. Hood canal is a very interesting microclimate. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: I can still remember your area getting smacked in just about every setup in 2007-08. Hood canal is a very interesting microclimate. It also has a very sharp cut off line from the hood canal snow belt. My place is between gold mountain and the Olympics so we get good cold air damming. And are really protected from sw winds. It's only about 8 miles to the base of the Olympics. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 07/08 was no good until April around here...Hoping to avoid that but it’s not looking good. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 37 minutes ago, Jesse said: Great 06z run. Looks like the 12z is in keeping with these better trends. I love how the stuff next week just keeps getting colder. This is probably in reaction to the Western Pacific MJO wave emerging much more quickly than previously expected. I wouldn't be surprised if everything just keeps trending better next week and beyond. I'm just thrilled to be getting some fairly cold weather now. I've actually got a good string of chilly min temps going now. Right now tomorrow night looks like legit cold. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: 07/08 was no good until April around here...Hoping to avoid that but it’s not looking good. This run is actually pretty solidly cold. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 UKMET 12z is unimpressed. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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