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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
EURO at Day 4 has the healthiest ridge merger, stronger evolving block.

image.gif.993851d381978ebeeba8c8efb316d0cb.gifHell yes that’s the good stuff. I have nothing to offer but GIFS. I apologize. But they are the best way to express how I feel. I don’t know about weather technically but I do know that it frickin fascinates me. And I love snow. And that I’ve had too much boxed wine. 

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5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
EURO at Day 4 has the healthiest ridge merger, stronger evolving block.

I would say even at day 3. Even though it looks funky, there were noticeable differences and a smidge healthier than the GFS. 

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Do you guys feel lucky with the day 8 ECMWF?  Day 7 looks like things could go well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7 If the ridge flops back to the east we're golden!

500h_anom.na.png

 

PV over Sask.  Not bad.  I say 55% day 8 looks good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Day 8 could look a lot worse that's for sure.  I like the fact this is obviously still in flux and the models are moving around a lot still.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 Oh SO CLOSE!!!

500h_anom.na.png

 

I like how there is such a big area of low heights inland on this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Winner at day 9!  Northerly surface gradients.  No digging out over the ocean.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er and off goes the block back to the Bering

500h_anom.na.png

 

That trough over us sure is pretty though.  There is still hope for this to be good.  The first challenge was getting rid of that disastrous digging out over the ocean late next week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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No matter what day 10 looks like I will gladly take this ECMWF run.  Lots of chilly weather in the 4 to 9 day period at least.  Big improvement in the believable range.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That trough over us sure is pretty though.  There is still hope for this to be good.  The first challenge was getting rid of that disastrous digging out over the ocean late next week.

This was a nice improvement compare to last night’s run at the same time frame. I really like the fact that it’s not digging the trough out to sea. 

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Really nice run.  Really cold at day 10 too.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The surface obs show temps well below normal Wednesday through the following Tuesday at least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Guys check out southern BC at hour 234. It's marching south! This run is going to end on a cliffhanger lol

 

download (9).png

The Price Is Right GIFs | Tenor

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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EPS is way better at least in the believable range.  Much less digging over the ocean.  Looking at last night's 0z this is a really good trend right now.  Realistic snow threat being shown on this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Aforementioned high
pressure will prevail on Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures
cooling to just below normal. Ridge shifts off to the east
Thursday as large upper level low across the eastern Pacific drops
southeast. 12z ECMWF has come more into line with 12Z GFS and
drops the low south but is more to the west and south as it heads
into California. GFS takes the low in closer proximity to
Washington as it heads into Oregon - with wrap around precip
affecting portions of the area. This would suggest the possibility
of a rain/snow mix in the lowlands but latest ensemble solutions
have backed off on the possibility of snow with only a member or
two showing anything. Ridging likely rebounds for later Friday
into Saturday with cooler northerly flow. Things become more
interesting for the end of the weekend into next week as ensembles
highlight a better probability of below normal temperatures and
snow chances for the lowlands. At this point, it's anyone's guess
so continue to stay tuned!

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Now the the operational, EPS mean, and EPS control all show the trough not digging too far west until after day 10.  You have got to love that!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Phew, still nothing in the believable range on the Euro.

You really get tiring.  Looks like a pretty solid run to me.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Even the stuff beyond day 10 looks better on this EPS run.  Every time period is improving right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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18z and 00z GFS/GEFS and 00z Euro/EPS all showed improvements with the trough axis within the semi believable range. Considering how close the disastrous 12z runs put me to the edge, it's nice to see a slight trend for the better. Hoping models continue to look better down the home stretch. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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The EPS shows vodka cold beginning to move into AK, the Yukon, and slowly spread southward late in the run.  The control shows major cold almost here by the end.  Maybe all of the stuff this month will be just an appetizer with the main course arriving in early Feb.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z and 00z GFS/GEFS and 00z Euro/EPS all showed improvements with the trough axis within the semi believable range. Considering how close the disastrous 12z runs put me to the edge, it's nice to see a slight trend for the better. Hoping models continue to look better down the home stretch. 

If the trend of the EPS continues to improve at this rate we will talking about great things by this time tomorrow.  Tonight's run is pretty darn good in the 6 to 10 day period.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z and 00z GFS/GEFS and 00z Euro/EPS all showed improvements with the trough axis within the semi believable range. Considering how close the disastrous 12z runs put me to the edge, it's nice to see a slight trend for the better. Hoping models continue to look better down the home stretch. 

Hopefully this continues and we get some amazing weeklies on Monday

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1610841600-gL2Gn7UXncM.png

  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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1610841600-mArXuiSMm7M.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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Meaty, y'all got QB on this very comfortable night?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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The ups and downs of model riding is so much fun during wintertime. 

So far this hasn't been the worst Winter, and the models are making a comeback to make it interesting. 

Had a fun little solstice snow event, a nice windstorm, a freezing October...could be worse! Hopefully it gets better.

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