February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Jbolin]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I cried over the 6 and 12z GFS this morning. 

Frozen tears?

[Perturbed Member]

Edit: Fake news

 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

RPM

What time period?

[wxmet]

Don’t like the way this run deepens the AK low through 81 hr.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

What time period?

2/6/14

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, JBolin said:

I recant my previous "in your face" comment. 

You know what, cut the kiddie pool up and put a piece of it on your daughters tractor as a makeshift plow, you can never have too many superstitions. 

Right?

Just think, this time next year you won't have to worry about superstition to get the kind of extremes we are rooting for....it will just be a "Tuesday" or "Saturday" for you. LOL!

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just think, this time next year you won't have to worry about superstition to get the kind of extremes we are rooting for....it will just be a "Tuesday" or "Saturday" for you. LOL!

No s***, The luxury of knowing it's going to snow and not having to try and find some solace in every model run to appease my hopes will be a welcome change. 

[JW8]

Good summary of the pattern here:  https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/02/06/arctic-air-heads-for-the-pacific-northwest/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Slushy Inch]

Euro versus GFS. I think the GFS is getting this wrong as short term models like GEM and NAM agree with the Euro, and the GFS has moved slightly towards Euro.

[soicandownloadattachedfile]

Curious, how many UW huskies are here?

[wxmet]

TPV is further west so this run should be colder

[Perturbed Member]

11 minutes ago, Timmy said:

What time period?

Nvm, fake news. From 2014. RPM doesn't even go out that far. 

 

Actual RPM, GRAF and ECMWF

 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

TPV is further west so this run should be colder

It’s colder, but still the warmest op solution of global guidance.

[Three-Six-Zero]

I have a feeling there’s going to be a lot of missed sleep this week.

[Cloud]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I just posted the entire loop of the 12Z GEFS for the next week.   You don't want to see that information?    Tim map!      

 

Of course the information is just fine! Just giving you a little bit of flack for some of the sh*t you get on here  

[FroYoBro]

Pretty insane gradient. 

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s colder, but still the warmest op solution of global guidance.

Speak English you over-complicating son-of-a-*****, 

[wxmet]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s colder, but still the warmest op solution of global guidance.

Yup. Feels like the GFS is playing catch-up after a series of botched runs.

[soicandownloadattachedfile]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

 

The only people who should not be getting any weenie-to-the-face are Mets who are trying to share forecast and methodologies with a crowd that feels like the 12z is controlled from a chalet in North Bend.

Agreed, I've seen a couple very professional/informative posts from Mets on here get shut down (especially Feb 2019) because people don't like what they are saying. It's kind of insulting and embarrassing for those of us in the field. Don't defend yourself though, because mets have no understanding of the basic concepts of weather apparently!

[bainbridgekid]

31 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

So far this wind advisory is a bust

Sea-tac gusted to 43 mph this morning but I think that was before the advisory was posted.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Of course the information is just fine! Just giving you a little bit of flack for some of the sh*t you get on here  

Well deserved!

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, soicandownloadattachedfile said:

Agreed, I've seen a couple very professional/informative posts from Mets on here get shut down (especially Feb 2019) because people don't like what they are saying. It's kind of insulting and embarrassing for those of us in the field. Don't defend yourself though, because mets have no understanding of the basic concepts of weather apparently!

Ok, and whom do you work for, with, etc?

[Perturbed Member]

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, nwsnow said:

After the brief snowfall for Portland the gradients and cold 850s continue. Could get seriously cold with a little bit of snowcover thrown in.

[soicandownloadattachedfile]

Just now, JBolin said:

Ok, and whom do you work for, with, etc?

Technically unemployed right now. I'm doing some research with UW professors right now that we're hoping to get published soon. On my way to graduate school in the fall.

[bainbridgekid]

18z is easily the coldest GFS run in a while. Still not as cold as the Euro or GEM but good to see it moving in that direction.

 

[Perturbed Member]

12z vs 18z

 

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, soicandownloadattachedfile said:

Curious, how many UW huskies are here?

I'd imagine there are quite a few of us.

Graduated from there. 

[Three-Six-Zero]

3 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

But Springfield will be lucky to get 55/31 on this day

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, soicandownloadattachedfile said:

Technically unemployed right now. I'm doing some research with UW professors right now that we're hoping to get published soon. On my way to graduate school in the fall.

Cool, congrats and best of luck in a highly competitive field.

[bainbridgekid]

18z gives Eugene 10" of snow on Thursday night.

[BLI snowman]

Eugene will never get below 35 or see so much as a plus sized raindrop again... beginning on February 13/14/15/16/17, 2021 after their 8" snowfall.

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

When the GFS falls back in line tonight then this place is going to go ape-sh$t.  

I for one am hoping that the February thread reaches 1000 pages.

[jakerepp]

15 minutes ago, soicandownloadattachedfile said:

Curious, how many UW huskies are here?

I went to a recruiting even there when I was 15. Got to go to the Stanford game where Jake Locker broke his thumb trying to throw a block.

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I went to a recruiting even there when I was 15. Got to go to the Stanford game where Jake Locker broke his thumb trying to throw a block.

That was one of the dumbest things I've seen a college QB do, then again there is Ryan Leaf's whole college career.

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty much ready to really accept it's going to get solidly cold.  Now the question is how cold and how much snow.

18z GFS is just wee bit better than the 12!

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

When the GFS falls back in line tonight then this place is going to go ape-sh$t.  

I for one am hoping that the February thread reaches 1000 pages.

Six days into February and we're approaching 80 pages. 

[bainbridgekid]

18z keeps the cold in place into next weekend. Way colder than the last 3 GFS runs on Friday.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

10 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Bulleyes for Tiger!

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty much ready to really accept it's going to get solidly cold.  Now the question is how cold and how much snow.

18z GFS is just wee bit better than the 12!

We finally got Jim onboard!!!