Jbolin Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: WRF-GFS has quite a bit of precipitation around tomorrow evening from about Everett to Mount Vernon, but it shows temps just a touch too warm for anything to accumulate except maybe in the higher hills and heavier showers around that area. Appetizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: YUP THATS SINGLE DIGITS I would have thought the GEM would warm up a little bit but it's gotten colder. Wild crazy frigid anomalies! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Where’s Flatiron to tell us this is all impossible because it’s NAO driven? 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’m not sure that single digits across the board will verify...but it definitely feels like it’s about to get pretty chilly next week. 3 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 GEM is pretty nuts. GFS took a step forward for sure. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: You it’s legit when someone says “I hope the models pull back”. #TooColdToSnow But it does happen... when its cold and all the moisture stays away. Some examples include... February 2006, December 2013, February 2014. 4 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Lol. The GEM is showing some day after tomorrow type . GEM was one of the leading suites in Feb'19 wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 GFS is still WAY warmer than the GEM and ICON. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Dry, cold, and sunny weather is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: But it does happen... when its cold and all the moisture stays away. Some examples include... February 2006, December 2013, February 2014. Oh I know what you mean. Nothing sucks more than wasted cold..basically the story of my existence here. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Meh, nothing to see. Just your usual -22c 850mb temp over PDX. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: I would have thought the GEM would warm up a little bit but it's gotten colder. Wild crazy frigid anomalies! Look at all that "spillage" out the gorge and Fraser valley 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Yeah, like I said last night. Give everyone an inch or two of snow with the arctic front and then let it get cold. 6 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Plot twist: GEM verifies, leaving the GooFuS and Dethroned King Euro in the dust. Not before a couple of trends colder of course. Bye bye California citrus industry and palm trees. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Skagit Weather said: Yeah, like I said last night. Give everyone an inch or two of snow with the arctic front and then let it get cold. I’d be so happy with just that. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Where is the Wizard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Good lord. GEM has a system come down from the north bringing snow and re-enforcing the cold air! 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: But it does happen... when its cold and all the moisture stays away. Some examples include... February 2006, December 2013, February 2014. You gonna take the boat out next week? Looks like perfect lake weather to me. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Just a high of 23 in Seattle on Friday. No biggie. Reminds me of January 1996 5 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Trends are good! GFS will continue to improve. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Snowdrift said: Where is the Wizard? He will be here shortly. He’s probably freaking out currently and needs to compose himself before he gets on. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Phil said: You gonna take the boat out next week? Looks like perfect lake weather to me. No... its winterized. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: Reminds me of January 1996 That's umm, what his ^%@$@^& name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Yeah, like I said last night. Give everyone an inch or two of snow with the arctic front and then let it get cold. An inch would probably sublimate away quickly, so better make it 2". I find 2" to be about the aesthetic cutoff for a really appealing snowfall, with the trees and plants nicely coated and enough ground covering to withstand the incoming -50F dewpoints. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 This is not gonna end up good, nothing awesome is even close to the believable range. 1 1 1 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: No... its winterized. Then..un-winterize it? Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: He will be here shortly. He’s probably freaking out currently and needs to compose himself before he gets on. A cold shower and a cigarette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 If We actually get an arctic front there should be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out, models won't see that till it's on us. 4 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: If We actually get an arctic front there should be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out, models won't see that till it's on us. That’s a nice benefit you guys have. If it gets real cold it’s almost certainly going to snow. Ain’t the case here. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: He will be here shortly. He’s probably freaking out currently and needs to compose himself before he gets on. The GFS looks like a February 2006 scenario... 850mb temp of -20C with an east wind and dry air. Coldest high was 37 in Seattle. Randy said he does not even remember it. Of course the ECMWF showed tons of snow so that is where I would put my money now. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: If We actually get an arctic front there should be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out, models won't see that till it's on us. Enough for 2 inches? Perhaps. Would be nice to have a low form in the Aleutians and ride down the coast dumping snowy goodness while not totally ruining the arctic temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Amazing the GFS is the warm one and it’s still decent. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: An inch would probably sublimate away quickly, so better make it 2". I find 2" to be about the aesthetic cutoff for a really appealing snowfall, with the trees and plants nicely coated and enough ground covering to withstand the incoming -50F dewpoints. You are right that an inch of snow would probably disappear in the wind and sun regardless of the temp. 2-3 inches would be much better. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: This is not gonna end up good, nothing awesome is even close to the believable range. We're all having a weenie moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: The GFS looks like a February 2006 scenario... 850mb temp of -20C with an east wind and dry air. Coldest high was 37 in Seattle. Randy said he does not even remember it. Of course the ECMWF showed tons of snow so that is where I would put my money now. We will see what happens. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 CZ snow continues well into Monday on the WRF. It'll never be able to pick up on the exact location and strength of CZ's, but I've learned not to discount it when it shows a solid band of 3+ inches like this. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, smerfylicious said: Enough for 2 inches? Perhaps. Would be nice to have a low form in the Aleutians and ride down the coast dumping snowy goodness while not totally ruining the arctic temps. A la January 12th 1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: If We actually get an arctic front there should be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out, models won't see that till it's on us. Was curious about the mechanics of these. If we see the front a-coming - is there a way to measure how much current moisture would translate into precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: CZ snow continues well into Monday on the WRF. It'll never be able to pick up on the exact location and strength of CZ's, but I've learned not to discount it when it shows a solid band of 3+ inches like this. Keep in mind the ECMWF is still not showing much snow through Wednesday morning... but does on Wednesday. The ECMWF has temps in the 40s with a SW wind on Monday and Tuesday. I am not expecting much if any snow until Wednesday. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Bryant,
11 reactions
Go to this post