February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Deweydog]

FYI for us southerners...

The Puppy Bowl is available On Demand.

[Prairiedog]

On 2/7/2021 at 11:30 AM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well looks like it develops into a solid onshore flow type situation by the end of next weekend. Some of our best snow setups are with an arctic front stalled to the north. Even last January wasn’t bad. 

Rod Hill and Mark Nelsen both are still hedging with Hill being even more moderate in temps than Nelsen.  Mark has hedged his bets and has left all scenarios on the table but he's hinted enough that PDX Metro, east county, West Hills (Requiem) probably will do much better than points south like OC and  that would include  Canby and Woodburn.  850's just seem too borderline outside the immediate Metro.   Surprises happen but I'm not hopeful esp where I'm at closer to the foothills near Estacada.  I just see a giant warm nose.  Maybe some evap cooling might help a little but models that show AM snow Thurs for most areas esp south of the Metro seem unreasonable to me.  This is so borderline that minor changes will mean everything.  Not hopeful right now.  Maybe that will change. 

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Have you seen the RGEM this morning. Develops a surface low off the top of Vancouver island, showing 10-15 cm over the south island on Thursday evening. Looks like the snow doesn’t stop before the new system comes in

Victoria is sitting in a good spot right now. Might cash in twice. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

It would be nice if the northern trend could stop now though. Making me a bit nervous.

The Euro has been consistent. Not even worried

[snow_wizard]

Good thing the ECMWF stalls the PV lobe just to the north which keeps thing suppressed vs the GFS for the second low.  The ECMWF is the consistent model now.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

There is absolutely no way the low goes that far north.  Jet suppression is very evident on satellite.  That goofus model can say whatever it wants.  I trust what my eyes are seeing more than that computer.

[Esquimalt]

Gfs showing a Monday snowstorm now for Seattle and north.  Appears quite marginal thou

[GobBluth]

the gfs could still get a lot worse for portland - the gfs has a similar low placement, but euro was a few degrees warmer. A slow transition to snow all day Friday is probably on the table.

[Andrew M]

GEFS low locations

[wxmet]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It would be nice if the northern trend could stop now though. Making me a bit nervous.

It’s all going to come down to the timing of that trough coming down the B.C. to prevent the storm from coming any further north. Hoping the northern trend stops here but wouldn’t be surprised if it continues.

[Blizzard777]

30* dp 24* winds calm
 

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The Euro has been consistent. Not even worried

Totally agreed.  The 6z was even slightly more south at the end of the run.  If that run is correct SEA will probably end up with a foot.

[Skagit Weather]

There are some heinous snowfall totals on the GFS this morning. Could trend farther north or south, but I would love to drink the Kool-aid it found this morning.

[Prairiedog]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

By Monday morning Seattle has two feet of snow and Olympia is a goner.

Even Portlanders and Bellingham get a foot. Fun for everyone!

Garbage( for PDX).  Gonna get on Robinhood and short this stock. 

[GobBluth]

1 minute ago, Andrew M said:

GEFS low locations

operational on the warm side?

[Blizzard777]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It would be nice if the northern trend could stop now though. Making me a bit nervous.

I’m with you....I don’t like this at all  

[Andrew M]

Just now, GobBluth said:

operational on the warm side?

Op appears to be one of the most northern trends, mean is a between central and northern Oregon coast 

[BLI snowman]

Probably going to be an all rain event here, maybe featuring a switch to ZR.

[Timmy]

Gem is further north than the 0z. Not as bad as the gfs

[bainbridgekid]

GEFS North trend continues.

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

All you late risers just made a whole 2 pages of weenie posts......this place sometimes.

[jakerepp]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

GEFS North trend continues.

 

I could trend further north by 100+ miles and you and I will still be in the bullseye 

[Andrew M]

This may end up being the final wobble north before a slight adjustment south based on the model means. Landfall appears increasingly likely somewhere between Tillamook and Astoria before heading ESE.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it's time for the NWS to sound the alarms!

[Perturbed Member]

Snow in PDX on life support.

We knew the GFS would likely correct at some point since it was the outlier but a bit concerned about the Euro potentially moving further north now too. If you look at the 06z ECMWF data below, it now shows PDX getting warm nosed pretty much right away and more severely. Surface temps in the 20s with significant ice accumulation and very little snow as of 4PM Friday.

[Blizzard777]

13 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

There is absolutely no way the low goes that far north.  Jet suppression is very evident on satellite.  That goofus model can say whatever it wants.  I trust what my eyes are seeing more than that computer.

Animated satellite does show the nice suppression.  I feel better now

Thanks 

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I’m with you....I don’t like this at all  

You can't be serious with these epic runs.  As I said the ECMWF actually trended slightly south with the second low on the 6z.  The ECMWF keeps things suppressed longer.

[FroYoBro]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably going to be an all rain event here, maybe featuring a switch to ZR.

I think it was you or another poster that said Portland is kind of due for an ice storm. Might get pretty ugly if we get enough cold air through the gorge Thursday night. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Snow in PDX on life support.

We knew the GFS would likely correct at some point since it was the outlier but a bit concerned about the Euro potentially moving further north now too. If you look at the 06z ECMWF data below, it now shows PDX getting warm nosed pretty much right away and more severely. Surface temps in the 20s with significant ice accumulation and very little snow as of 4PM Friday.

That run looks better for snow for PDX with the second low though.  That is of course projecting it forward.

[Timmy]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That run looks better for snow for PDX with the second low though.  That is of course projecting it forward.

Sure, until 2 days out when it pulls the rug again

[wxmet]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's time for the NWS to sound the alarms!

I do agree with this that a Winter Storm Watch should be issued if the trends continue with the rest of the 12z suite. This would be a crippling event and people need time to be prepared especially with COVID-19 still around.

[Blizzard777]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

You can't be serious with these epic runs.  As I said the ECMWF actually trended slightly south with the second low on the 6z.  The ECMWF keeps things suppressed longer.

Just needed some actual visuals to help me out.  Seeing the suppression on the satellite did it.  I’m in a happy spot now

[Timmy]

Foggy and frosty here this morning, curious how long the fog lasts today, could make for a cool day

[Prairiedog]

5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Snow in PDX on life support.

We knew the GFS would likely correct at some point since it was the outlier but a bit concerned about the Euro potentially moving further north now too. If you look at the 06z ECMWF data below, it now shows PDX getting warm nosed pretty much right away and more severely. Surface temps in the 20s with significant ice accumulation and very little snow as of 4PM Friday.

Yep.  That's what I've been seeing and maps the trend has shown this for a couple days.  It's possible just immediate metro gets some kind of frozen precip (more ZR than snow).  Still too close to call but we'll see. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Just needed some actual visuals to help me out.  Seeing the suppression on the satellite did it.  I’m in a happy spot now

Easy to see on this satellite.  Low level trough carving out off of Vancouver Island.......should clear out fairly nice overnight into tomorrow until the approaching front heads north and is shunted due east......cloud tops should explode as the 2 airmasses converge.  Perfect setup for most of the area IMO.

 

https://atmos.uw.edu/current-weather/northwest-ir-satellite/

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Euro hardly wavered in showing things not getting as suppressed and all the other models, especially the GFS, came into alignment with it. Another score for the Euro.

Ironically it now keeps the second low more suppressed than the GFS.  In a sense this is kind of like what happened in OR in 2014.  In that situation everything was just south 150 miles or so.

[snow_wizard]

This has to be one of the most extreme sustained N to S 850mb temperature gradients I've ever seen.  That alone has been suggesting a snowy outcome for WA all along.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW the GFS actually delivers a tremendous amount of snow from Eugene to Portland on Saturday. 

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Yep.  That's what I've been seeing and maps the trend has shown this for a couple days.  It's possible just immediate metro gets some kind of frozen precip (more ZR than snow).  Still too close to call but we'll see. 

Yep will be a shame for PDX to miss yet another snow event by such a tiny margin. The surface level cold isn't a problem on any model, this low track could allow PDX and lots of western WA to score too but the mid/upper levels are just too mild down here.

Maybe this will be a sleet/ZR event in PDX but it is also getting close now to being a total nonevent if things trend even a hair further north. 48 hours left for this to turn into just a rain event?

[Cloud]

There is some incredibly cold air just north of the border. Would be so nice to tap into some of that for a wee bit less snow.