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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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46 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

You have a real good winter weather radar loop?

RadarScope. Expensive but it’s the only radar app I ever use, winter and summer.

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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Okay nobody have a heart attack when viewing the epic evening runs!!! Will be hard though because they are going to be insane!!! 

No promises.

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Massive east coast snowstorm, mild west coast winter and a discussion about human frailty.  Must be a Monday in February...

It truly is a comedy of errors, isn't it?

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So far the GFS is better than the previous runs, eroding the eastern periphery of the GOA block and allowing cold air to come down.

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00Z is juuuuuuust a bit different than the 18Z next week.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just flipping channels and came across Autopsy on REELZ...Luther Vandross had a cerebral hemorrhage...BUT that didn’t kill him! Still have about 15mins before I will know what actually did. 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Just flipping channels and came across Autopsy on REELZ...Luther Vandross had a cerebral hemorrhage...BUT that didn’t kill him! Still have about 15mins before I will know what actually did. 

I can save you that 15 minutes so you can focus on model riding.  Last, I think, you were not onboard.

He died of a heart attack.

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

This run was quite close to getting modified arctic air into Eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. Minor adjustments and things change quickly.

The 500mb pattern late next week does not look like it be that cold... something tells me this is the GFS being Goofus.

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well not a good trend, but great to have the ICON on board. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Early spring for the east coast.

Verbatim that’s a cold pattern here, but I’m sure the flip to spring will be fast and hard, as it is almost every year.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 500mb pattern late next week does not look like it be that cold... something tells me this is the GFS being Goofus.

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

Considering our luck lately it’s likely the warmest most dull solution will verify.

"Let's mosey!"

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

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I know some of you will roll your eyes, but I really think this run is an outlier. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know some of you will roll your eyes, but I really think this run is an outlier. 

Ensembles will be interesting. Seems like Matt’s favorite word of 2021 is in play here...VOLATILITY! 

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FWIW, both the 18z EPS mean and control model were just a bit further west with the ridge and downstream trough over the middle of the country, at least through D6. The ridge looked a little healthier on both too vs. 12z.

Probably doesn't mean much but maybe the 00z operational will follow suit. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Verbatim that’s a cold pattern here, but I’m sure the flip to spring will be fast and hard, as it is almost every 

Once late march April is here some nice spring weather is ok as long as it not blow torching summer temps bad enough we get that in the summer.

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18Z run on top... 00Z run on the bottom.  

gfs_z500a_us_56.png

gfs_z500a_us_55.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Gem is heading in a tolerable direction. 

 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z run on top... 00Z run on the bottom.  

gfs_z500a_us_56.png

gfs_z500a_us_55.png

The situation is in flux right now. A lot of genius level thinking going on at GFS headquarters on Space Mountain. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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