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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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12 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Thankfully nothing was detected and my eye problem was resolved with a steroid prescription. Also the models look fantastic. And I'm sore from all the catheters and laying in one position for a quarter of a day. I need sleep.

Praying for ya man glad everything is okay

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Up to .40” on the day. This has sure been an ugly stretch of weather. 

Absolutely hideous here... can't wait for something different.   This pattern is the worst for both of our areas.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This has the potential to be one of the greatest blasts of the 21st Century nationally. Have we even had a coast to coast blast this Century?!

Legit cold air east of the Continental Divide

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5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just 0.02” of rain here the past 3 days. Sunny and windy 50F today. 😀

Jealous! 

 

nb 2-6.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What is interesting is that the rain shadow reaches almost out here now... its dry just one exit to the west.

 

090vc02567.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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26 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Is the pattern now starting to evolve the way you originally expected?

I couldn’t possibly predict this precisely at-range. I only highlighted windows of potential, and even there, my timing was off by a week or two.

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Euro is relentlessly frigid for here. All the new COVID transplants are in for a rude awakening!

714903750_ScreenShot2021-02-06at8_44_13PM.thumb.png.040a2d44bc25e3ec4dd5da0e971cbb67.png

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  • Snow 1

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 140.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 20.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -21º

Number of subzero days: 12

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What is interesting is that the rain shadow reaches almost out here now... its dry just one exit to the west.

 

090vc02567.jpg

Shadow in full force here. I'm at 20 inches of rain since January 1 already. 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Currently cloudy and 40. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Kayla said:

Euro is relentlessly frigid for here. All the new COVID transplants are in for a rude awakening!

714903750_ScreenShot2021-02-06at8_44_13PM.thumb.png.040a2d44bc25e3ec4dd5da0e971cbb67.png

Cold enough for sock! (c)2016? Even two or three pair, or you could wear those newfangled thermal socks.

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2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Snow falling with temperatures in the 20s would be a fun event. Still lots more Euro runs to get through between now and then.

It would be a great event for your area. Cold is coming, but the situation remains rather fluid. Things can change right up until the last moment. 

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Euro is relentlessly frigid for here. All the new COVID transplants are in for a rude awakening!

714903750_ScreenShot2021-02-06at8_44_13PM.thumb.png.040a2d44bc25e3ec4dd5da0e971cbb67.png

January: Montana isn't too bad. It's much more temperate than I anticipated.

February: Reality Check

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31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

And cue the Jaws music for Phil!

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3260800.png

I want nothing to do with that suppressive TPV in a Niña year. Y’all can have it.

Tracking two potential winter storms already (one of which starts tonight). Would be nothing but cold/dry if that monster airmass were pressing in here (given the lack of a STJ).

If it were an El Niño year, that’d be another story.

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2 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

January: Montana isn't too bad. It's much more temperate than I anticipated.

February: Reality Check

Yeah and even December ran way above average as well. Reality and then some is about to set in now!

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 140.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 20.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -21º

Number of subzero days: 12

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This has the potential to be one of the greatest blasts of the 21st Century nationally. Have we even had a coast to coast blast this Century?!

I think 2000 came close? There were a few coast to coast shots in 2016/17 too.

Also Oct/Dec 2009 are debatable, I think?

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I think 2000 came close? There were a few coast to coast shots in 2016/17 too.

Also Oct/Dec 2009 are debatable, I think?

October doesn’t count. We got cold out in Oklahoma at the end of December 2009, but I thought the big cold in the west was earlier. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We were 23/13 with 5” of snow on this date 7 years ago. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Up to .40” on the day. This has sure been an ugly stretch of weather. 

Very ugly.  currently 42 and raining lightly, .51" for the day, 3.70" for February, 11.04" for the year.  I hope we have a flash freeze because I have several small lakes on the property.

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

October doesn’t count. We got cold out in Oklahoma at the end of December 2009, but I thought the big cold in the west was earlier. 

Could be. I don’t remember exactly how Dec 2009 evolved, other than the fact it was the deepest -AO ever recorded (I think).

I think 2000/01 and 2016/17 are the closest examples unless I’m missing something (which is certainly possible). Seems to be a La Niña thing either way.   

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

😎

 

 

DCEF56DD-DCFD-4563-AC0C-E0782B9F5747.jpeg

Like how you worked in the Canadian flag there! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I wasn't able to follow the 12z EURO because I had an appointment to go to but I just saw it and all I can say is WOW! 🥶

  • Snow 1

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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You know it’s been a good model run when you have 5 pages to catch up on. Nothing like an event waiting in the wings to get the forum hopping again.

Nice to see the Euro hold strong. Really encouraging. Admittedly, I was a bit down after the trends on the 06z/12z GFS and even 06z Euro to a degree but feeling a bit more cautiously optimistic now. Hope the GFS can get it’s sh*t together. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah and even December ran way above average as well. Reality and then some is about to set in now!

It's been torch city here, too. It will get colder here next week, but the real cold stays east of us. Pretty normal stuff.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF snowfall map through Saturday morning... this is an ECMWF snowfall map and not a GFS map! 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3239200.png

Spectacular! You never want to be in the bullseye this far away but hopefully we can get a regional event so everybody can score.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

October doesn’t count. We got cold out in Oklahoma at the end of December 2009, but I thought the big cold in the west was earlier. 

In 2009 we got cold in early to mid December. We had a nice little arctic front with some good wind.

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High-res WRF still showing a little CZ snow for the North sound tomorrow night/Monday morning. Hints at some action around North Seattle too.

ww_snowacc.66.0000.gif

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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The mean snowfall on the EPS is over 4 inches for SEA now.  The control is about the same.  Interestingly the latter part of the run shows a solid -PNA pattern after a brief period of near zero PNA values.  Might be quite the February / March combo this go round.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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