SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 ASO ONI came in at -0.7C. Weekly ENSO 3.4 came in at -1.0C this week, up slightly from last week. Looks like ONI is expected to peak at -1.4C for the NDJ and DJF periods. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: ASO ONI came in at -0.7C. Weekly ENSO 3.4 came in at -1.0C this week, up slightly from last week. Looks like ONI is expected to peak at -1.4C for the NDJ and DJF periods. Could we have already reached the bottom? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: CFS was the first model to toy with a December 2013 blast. Yeah, and I’m not sure if even the CFS could f*ck with the December juggernaut at this point. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: I'm curious to see if Euro run will have bleeding issues for wind like it did with snow. We may be left with only the NAM for higher resolution stuff. GFS shows gusty but nowhere near NAM Euro tends to overdo wind gusts by something like 15-20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Could we have already reached the bottom? Probably not. Phil and Jim know more about this than I, but it seems exceedingly unlikely. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Canadian looks kold. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Canadian looks kold. we need a #Kold emoji @iFred 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Gorgeous morning! #droughtresumes 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: we need a #Kold emoji @iFred 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Sorry not emoji, reaction 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Canadian is also slightly further south with the AR later this week. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Growing potential for some cool air in about 10 days. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 SLE reporting 1/16th of a mile visibility. Fog beginning to lift a little here on the river. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Canadian is also slightly further south with the AR later this week. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 12z Euro winds increase a bit vs 06z (bottom) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Sorry not emoji, reaction 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 I think we should do this one… 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: ASO ONI came in at -0.7C. Weekly ENSO 3.4 came in at -1.0C this week, up slightly from last week. Looks like ONI is expected to peak at -1.4C for the NDJ and DJF periods. 3.4 warmed a touch compared to last week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Wett EURO run for parts of the central W. Valley especially! 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Requiem said: Wett EURO run for parts of the central W. Valley especially! Can't wait to see the maps. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Pfft. 510 thickness line doesn’t even reach Reno 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 26 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Thank you for posting this, the linked article from Berkley Lab was an interesting read (I couldn't get to it until today when I was back in my office). Disseminating scientific research to the general public is difficult, and I don't think that OPB article was that great at it. "A recent study highlighted that there has been a 21% decline in the April 1 snowpack water storage in the western U.S. since the 1950s". We have already seen the impacts of modest declines in snowpack for the West. Here are their range of projections for the Cascades and the Sierras: I assume there will be a significant North to South gradient for both of those. You are incorrect. "The research... starts with a literature review which distills several hundred scientific studies on snow loss; of those, they identify and analyze 18 studies that had quantitative snowpack projections for the western U.S." They did not choose whichever data fit their narrative, they evaluated research investigating snowpack in the Western US and of that research, 18 studies had quantitative projections of snowpack. If someone attempted to get research published as you suggested, they would be shredded during the review process and the research would go unpublished. The privilege of inaccurately characterizing info to support bogus claims is best left to posts on internet forums like yours. I can't believe they forgot to ask @snow_wizard his anecdotal observations on Cascade snowpack from CA, OR & WA!! Flawed research! @Phil "yawned" at the research, so it must be BS. He is a snowpack expert, I remember, a couple years ago, him genuinely asking why the PNW would root for snow in the mountains... I am politically fairly conservative, as anyone browsing the off topic boards will notice, and for quite a while was not sold on "climate change." But, it has been said the proof is in the pudding, and at this point, it's really impossible to say nothing is happening, it is pretty noticeable. I didn't read that article and think they were saying there would NEVER be snow pack in the Cascades in the 2070s, but it seems if we were to extrapolate out pretty logical that if current trends continue we would see years of increasing frequency where there is little if any Cascade snow pack. That doesn't mean it isn't going to snow in the Cascades, it means warm rain events will be more frequent, we will not have the opportunity to build as much of a snow pack and when we do it will melt out sooner. In warmer drier winters, which we will likely see more of, this will be even more pronounced. I think some people just do not like the idea of this happening, we can argue about what to do about it, but it is real regardless of that. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Can't wait to see the maps. Here's out to 120 hours or so. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: SCORE 1 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: We would all be happy with a December 08 rerun 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Requiem said: Here's out to 120 hours or so. Wow. Had to double check that but hot dang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Could we have already reached the bottom? It's a weak event at best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: We would all be happy with a December 08 rerun Those first 3 days of it were about as good as one could hope for down this way. Scored on the initial blast with a few inches of snow going into it and then had a couple of sub-freezing highs. Anymore those are about as rare here as a good song on today's pop radio. Obviously things were way better to the north, but then we had 2-25-19 which didn't do much up that way so it's all about location. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Really gorgeous morning with completely clear skies right now. Nice to get a little sun before more wet weather returns. Enjoyable fall after our hellish summer. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Wow. Had to double check that but hot dang Wow. That's about 8" of rain here. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Could we have already reached the bottom? Not yet. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 This fall has been very different than the past two. Especially now heading into November. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 47 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Thank you for posting this, the linked article from Berkley Lab was an interesting read (I couldn't get to it until today when I was back in my office). Disseminating scientific research to the general public is difficult, and I don't think that OPB article was that great at it. "A recent study highlighted that there has been a 21% decline in the April 1 snowpack water storage in the western U.S. since the 1950s". We have already seen the impacts of modest declines in snowpack for the West. Here are their range of projections for the Cascades and the Sierras: I assume there will be a significant North to South gradient for both of those. You are incorrect. "The research... starts with a literature review which distills several hundred scientific studies on snow loss; of those, they identify and analyze 18 studies that had quantitative snowpack projections for the western U.S." They did not choose whichever data fit their narrative, they evaluated research investigating snowpack in the Western US and of that research, 18 studies had quantitative projections of snowpack. If someone attempted to get research published as you suggested, they would be shredded during the review process and the research would go unpublished. The privilege of inaccurately characterizing info to support bogus claims is best left to posts on internet forums like yours. I can't believe they forgot to ask @snow_wizard his anecdotal observations on Cascade snowpack from CA, OR & WA!! Flawed research! @Phil "yawned" at the research, so it must be BS. He is a snowpack expert, I remember, a couple years ago, him genuinely asking why the PNW would root for snow in the mountains... Cascade snowpack has shown no statistically significant trend since WWII. Rely on GCM projections for regional scale snowpack at your own peril. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Those first 3 days of it were about as good as one could hope for down this way. Scored on the initial blast with a few inches of snow going into it and then had a couple of sub-freezing highs. Anymore those are about as rare here as a good song on today's pop radio. Obviously things were way better to the north, but then we had 2-25-19 which didn't do much up that way so it's all about location. Yeah, let's push the goodies a little further south this time around. EUG pulling off a 27/10 on 12/16/08 is pretty impressive though. December 2009 had no snow at EUG, but was pretty legit too. 5 straight sub freezing highs early in the month including 30/7 on the 9th, and two more sub-freezing highs later in the month. It was their 6th or 7th coldest December on record. December 2008 was cold at EUG, but interestingly they have had 4 colder December's since then, 2009, 2013, 2016, 2017. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 hour ago, T-Town said: Where has @TacomaWaWx been? I need my daily Tacoma rainfall totals. Strangely he went missing after the “missed connection” post! Hopefully he will chime in soon 1 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Almost feel like I should do yard work but not motivated with temperature of 45* I'd rather be up there enjoying this view from Crystal ! 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Euro looks fairly dynamic, at least. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 First winter storm watch for the Washington cascades and Olympics this season I believe. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 8, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Wow just beautiful at hurricane ridge today. The Olympics are such a gorgeous place. 9 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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