PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[TT-SEA]

Sun!  

 

[snow_wizard]

So far the GFS keeps the Aleutian low in the picture during week two whereas the EPS kicks it way back to the Western Pacific.  We'll have to wait and see which model gives in.

[TT-SEA]

39 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Snow should be all gone pretty soon. 

Yeah... even the GFS which has been running too cold shows temps getting close to 60 in my area by Wednesday.    There is no way my remaining snow cover can withstand that

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So far the GFS keeps the Aleutian low in the picture during week two whereas the EPS kicks it way back to the Western Pacific.  We'll have to wait and see which model gives in.

Ya GFS seems lost here (I hope) like it’s just showing randomness 

[AlTahoe]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

One more note... the end of the 00Z EPS reminds me of late January 2019.    Appears to be primed for retrogression.

 

Thanks for the possible good news. I was getting depressed looking at the Gfs long range for the last week. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Meanwhile, mainstream science says: https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/

The thing is even if there is no real change in global temps from the grand minimum (which is very much open for debate) there is a theory that it causes amplified ridges over the oceans to be more common in the winter months.  They have found evidence of this effect from earlier grand minimums.  They deduced this from the fact places like Alaska showed no evidence of global cooling (and in fact possible warming) during the Maunder and Dalton minimums.  Also...there is an obvious pro global warming agenda in the scientific community right now.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Ya GFS seems lost here (I hope) like it’s just showing randomness 

I think it might be MJO based.  The EPS shows the phase 7 MJO wave amplifying again going forward.  Unfortunately the GFS MJO forecast hasn't updated for a few days, but the last update was in disagreement with the EPS.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Thanks for the possible good news. I was getting depressed looking at the Gfs long range for the last week. 

Hard to imagine being too dissatisfied with this winter given what you recently went through.

[LowerGarfield]

11 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

My berm Friday was about 3.5 feet high, all the way across the driveway of course, no way around it, and it was about 10 feet deep (from the road toward the house).  Had to dig most of it out before I could drive over the remnants. 

I work a night shift, and was blocked out from my house as a result.  To get to a shovel, I had to cross it to get to my garage.  Can't try to walk over it, as one of your legs could sink in all the way, and you can't really pull it out as you have nothing to grab onto for leverage.  So I had to lie on top of it and roll to the other side.  

What's underneath is a thick ice "curb".  Easy to drive over it, hard for the snowblower to go over it as my driveway has an incline to it.. 

I am thankful that we have a back alley for parking. It can make getting out a pain sometimes when it snows a lot, but I don't like parking up front because the state snow plows run constantly here and there's also a decent berm here though it's melting.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 34 this morning. Sunny and 40 now. 

[ShawniganLake]

50 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Obviously you need to locate a spare pump for emergency use but as a temporary measure it might be possible to set up some garden hoses as siphons, assuming a sufficiently low spot exists for them to drain to.

If you have a basement that is prone to flooding it is also a good idea to have a sump pump alarm. 

[Everleigh]

29 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I’m so sorry this happened  

I fear this very thing someday….hired Terrafirma $$$$  a long time ago to deal with all the water that dumps on my property and into the crawl space….used to be just plain nasty down there. I do have a backup pump attached to a battery that will buy me a little time in case of power failure or main pump going off line.    They also added and alarm so if both pumps fail I can run around with my hands in the air screaming! 
Hope you get everything figured….not fun 

The pump is fairly new. We bought the house a little over 5 years ago, and the pump needed to be replaced then. As did all the duct work and insulation. So, while this isn't a "new" problem, it's the first time WE have had to deal with it. I really don't know why the pump failed. Hubbs is at Lowes, renting a pump, so we can get the standing water out of there, at least. He is going to call some Crawl company tomorrow to get it looked at.  On top of all this, I threw my back out on Friday and have been bedridden since! lol 2022 is starting off GREAT! 

[RentonHill]

[Timmy Supercell]

I forget KLMT never hit zero in Feb 2019 and was still 4th coldest. Other stations in southern Oregon had top 3.

The fact that the days struggled to go much over 40 cooled the mean a lot. I had one week where several highs were below 30.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Got down to 34 this morning. Sunny and 40 now. 

You just can't buy a freeze this season unless we have Arctic air in place.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Eugene had freezes December 30- Jan 2

That's nice. Springfield didn't and we tend to run warmer than the airport.

[Geos]

Went down to 31° here and only up to 35° so far.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

The pump is fairly new. We bought the house a little over 5 years ago, and the pump needed to be replaced then. As did all the duct work and insulation. So, while this isn't a "new" problem, it's the first time WE have had to deal with it. I really don't know why the pump failed. Hubbs is at Lowes, renting a pump, so we can get the standing water out of there, at least. He is going to call some Crawl company tomorrow to get it looked at.  On top of all this, I threw my back out on Friday and have been bedridden since! lol 2022 is starting off GREAT! 

I hope and pray this year is better than 2020 and 2021.  Two terrible years in many ways for a lot of people.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

46 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Have any sub-32 highs yet? I had a 21/9 on the 7th and I started thinking of Eugene.

No, we still haven't had one since Jan 2017. Longest stretch on record and getting pretty hard to believe.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You just can't buy a freeze this season unless we have Arctic air in place.

This morning it was the fog that caused it. We did get 9 freezes in a row with the cold snap though…and our lows since the cold snap have stayed average-below average still. 

[awright-31]

1-8-22 OBS for MBY

High temp - 44* recorded at 1:16 pm
Low temp - 30* recorded at 10:06 pm

New precip - 0.00" 
January 2022 precip to date - 7.94"
We have received 101% of our normal January precip 8 days into the month.

New snow - 0"
Winter 21-22 snow to date - 10.9"

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

That's nice. Springfield didn't and we tend to run warmer than the airport.

I think the second half of winter will be better for you.  It just blows my mind we had a low of 17 on New Years Eve and 16 on Jan 1 and you didn't even get down to freezing on those days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

That's nice. Springfield didn't and we tend to run warmer than the airport.

You didn't have a freeze on New Year's? I know PDX and SLE were around 26 that morning, I hit 19. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the second half of winter will be better for you.  It just blows my mind we had a low of 17 on New Years Eve and 16 on Jan 1 and you didn't even get down to freezing on those days.

Yeah, you would hate it here. Very few Arctic airmasses ever dig this far south anymore. Alarming trend and I worry about areas to the north. This is headed your way over the coming years.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You didn't have a freeze on New Year's? I know PDX and SLE were around 26 that morning, I hit 19. 

Nope, was 34F on the weather station.

[TacomaWaWx]

One thing the gfs and euro seem to agree on is there’s no major rain makers after our next AR moves through the following week. The AR will likely push us above average rainfall here…so our streak of wetter than normal months is still going to be intact going into February. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Michael Snyder has been talking about this for the last few days and I was wondering why nobody on here was talking about it. Could be that we are in denial over it haha! We could definitely use a break in the rainfall. 

It is denial.  I really thought this sheit was over with.  At least we ended up with a nice weekend.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yeah, you would hate it here. Very few Arctic airmasses ever dig this far south anymore. Alarming trend and I worry about areas to the north. This is headed your way over the coming years.

There is absolutely no proof of that.     South Texas had a record breaking arctic air mass just 11 months ago.   And Eugene was -10 within the last decade.   There are different pattern regimes over time but they are not permanent.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apparently EUG only hit 30 on the 1st (SLE and PDX hit 24, 25 respectively). 

SLE and EUG both have average highs over 50 on the month already. SLE's average high in January was over 50 2018-2020, last January they pulled off like 49.3. So mild... Today should be a negative departure at least. 

[MossMan]

Not a good showing today from the GFS PNA ensemble forecast. Glad we have the Euro PNA forecast in our court though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I imagine we will torch again if another AR is going into Washington. SLE had a 57/52 on the 6th, set a record warm low. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yeah, you would hate it here. Very few Arctic airmasses ever dig this far south anymore. Alarming trend and I worry about areas to the north. This is headed your way over the coming years.

I totally get your negative feelings about it.  This next possible cold event looks like it will have more of a -EPO component to it so you might cash in.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I imagine we will torch again if another AR is going into Washington. SLE had a 57/52 on the 6th, set a record warm low. 

I’ve lost count on how many AR direct hits western WA and SW BC Have had this year. Probably about 10 or so maybe more. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently EUG only hit 30 on the 1st (SLE and PDX hit 24, 25 respectively). 

SLE and EUG both have average highs over 50 on the month already. SLE's average high in January was over 50 2018-2020, last January they pulled off like 49.3. So mild... Today should be a negative departure at least. 

I think we get more southerly winds for longer than the airport and that's just enough to keep us warmer.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I imagine we will torch again if another AR is going into Washington. SLE had a 57/52 on the 6th, set a record warm low. 

Geeeze.  We were 48/35 on that same day.  Average month to date high only 40.6 and month to date average 35.4.  The N to S gradient has only gotten worse.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’ve lost count on how many AR direct hits western WA and SW BC Have had this year. Probably about 10 or so maybe more. 

So tired of it... send it Oregon and California.    Its been just ridiculous in western WA and SW BC.  

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’ve lost count on how many AR direct hits western WA and SW BC Have had this year. Probably about 10 or so maybe more. 

It is totally bizarre to say the least.  Pretty much everything has been a baroclinic zone.  Some seasons are just like that and they are usually big snow makers.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There is absolutely no proof of that.     South Texas had a record breaking arctic air mass just 11 months ago.   And Eugene was -10 within the last decade.   There are different pattern regimes over time but they are not permanent.   

The longer this goes, the more I'm thinking it's a trend. Like our rapidly increasing heat in the summer.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeeze.  We were 48/35 on that same day.  Average month to date high only 40.6 and month to date average 35.4.  The N to S gradient has only gotten worse.

Average high here so far is 43.2 average low is 32.7. MTD average is 38.0. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

22 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I am thankful that we have a back alley for parking. It can make getting out a pain sometimes when it snows a lot, but I don't like parking up front because the state snow plows run constantly here and there's also a decent berm here though it's melting.

When we were looking at homes in Leavenworth to buy, a requirement of mine was a 2 car garage.  During the summer, I didn't want either my wife or myself to get into a car that was 150 degrees on the inside, and during the winger I didn't want to have to dig our cars out from snow or have to always scrape the windshields.  Turned out to be a wise choice.

Still have to deal with the berms.  For some reason I have never figured out, our house has the biggest berms in the neighborhood.