August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Was watching the news just now and saw a segment on the dry summer in Vancouver. YVR is at 64% of average for summer rainfall

 

Seattle is at 113% of normal since June 1st.

 

Around 125% of normal at the stations out here.

 

King County has been a favored spot... as usual it seems.

[GHweatherChris]

Diffrent countries.

[Deweydog]

Diffrent Strokes!

[GHweatherChris]

Diffrent Strokes!

Left hand? Or, I Guess right hand for a few...

[Deweydog]

Premiered on 11-3-78...

 

Not a bad start to not a bad winter!

[snow_wizard]

Looks like our first major taste of fall on the 0z GFS later in the run.  Pretty likely we will see a big change to chillier minimum temps over the next couple of weeks.

 

Meanwhile the deep solar minimum continues unabated.  In fact today saw the lowest combination of x-ray flux and radio flux in the past several months.  Very low solar activity for months on end now.

[ShawniganLake]

Raining here. Again!

[TT-SEA]

Raining here. Again!

 

 

Did not even think to check the radar... that is a surprisingly impressive band of rain up there.

[ShawniganLake]

Did not even think to check the radar... that is a surprisingly impressive band of rain up there.

Yea. I wasn’t really expecting it. Thought it was supposed to get hung up farther north.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yea. I wasn’t really expecting it. Thought it was supposed to get hung up farther north.

 

It's even made it down to Victoria, none of the models were even hinting at something like this.

[Dave]

Looks like crap weather returns next Thursday. Clouds are possible.

[MossMan]

Hopefully that band does not trend south.

[TacomaWaWx]

Already 68 degrees here in NE WA. Back at home we’ve been getting some cooler night time lows. Got down to 52 this morning and 53 on the 20th, which is cooler than what we’ve been seeing recently.

[MossMan]

Starting to rain.

[Front Ranger]

Seattle is at 113% of normal since June 1st.

 

Around 125% of normal at the stations out here.

 

King County has been a favored spot... as usual it seems.

 

SEA will probably finish right around normal for 6/1-8/31.

 

Most other spots in the PNW lowlands will likely finish easily below normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Edibles sometimes but that's it.  Too risky, even travelling to other west coast states.

 

Yeah I'm not into getting arrested at the airport.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to rain.

 

Severe clear down here!

[Front Ranger]

Yeah I'm not into getting arrested at the airport.

 

From the comfort of your own home is so much better.

[Phil]

Hallelujah. Wunderground finally displays PWS data in decimal point format again. Man what a nasty website transition, but I do like the new monthly graphs better since they display the diurnal cycle. I still have some archived data missing but hopefully they’ll remedy that.

[Phil]

Wow, the number of prominences is extremely low right now, significantly lower than the previous minimum. If we don’t see a substantial uptick in high latitude/SC25 polarity spots soon (IE: later solar minimum date) that would make it all the more interesting.

 

We probably haven’t reached the minimum yet, as the flaring (red) was from low latitude SC24-polarity spots.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Starting to rain.

 

Not a cloud in the sky here.  Should be another gorgeous day.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow, the number of prominences is extremely low right now, significantly lower than the previous minimum. If we don’t see a substantial uptick in high latitude/SC25 polarity spots soon (IE: later solar minimum date) that would make it all the more interesting.

 

We probably haven’t reached the minimum yet, as the flaring (red) was from low latitude SC24-polarity spots.

 

 

The atmosphere is in a nino state according to Ventrice so that puts a damper on things but this notable solar minimum is intriguing and can hopefully overpower it and bring us some goodies.

[TT-SEA]

Mostly sunny here... nice morning.

[jakeinthevalley]

Also for all of you golf course fans out there...This will probably make you vomit! 7 green and fairway at Kayak Point!

 

Anyway back to the weather...Nice evening!

Frickin' poa still dominating the (former) green!

[TT-SEA]

Its pretty unusual to have rain falling from Everett northward while its sunny here... but that is happening today.

[Phil]

The atmosphere is in a nino state according to Ventrice so that puts a damper on things but this notable solar minimum is intriguing and can hopefully overpower it and bring us some goodies.

Well, a “niño state” refers to a multitude of components and can be meaningless at this point in time if you’re forecasting seasonally/subseasonally for a specific location, especially in low amplitude/non-canonical state evolutions such as this one.

 

For instance, the atmosphere was in a “niño state” last year, 1972/73, and in 1968/69, and the PNW got hammered. On the flip side, it was in a strong “niña state” in 1999/00, and that was a dud winter.

 

What matters is the spatial structure of the SSTs/circulations and the degree of coupling, as well as the communications to/from/thru forcings/conduits such as solar/QBO/photochemistry, all of which affect tropical convection and wave trains across the planet.

[Phil]

But yes, little doubt that low solar (and especially low geomagnetic activity/AP index) would be very helpful at this stage. With easterly shear (+QBO @ 50mb w/ descending easterlies to 30mb) likely strengthening thru winter, keeping the AP index (geomag/solar wind) weak is crucial with the dateline/WPAC forcing likely co-dominant w/ the aggregate of divergence in the WHEM.

[Front Ranger]

But yes, little doubt that low solar (and especially low geomagnetic activity/AP index) would be very helpful at this stage. With easterly shear (+QBO @ 50mb w/ descending easterlies to 30mb) likely strengthening thru winter, keeping the AP index (geomag/solar wind) weak is crucial with the dateline/WPAC forcing likely co-dominant w/ the aggregate of divergence in the WHEM.

 

Very likely that these words have never been put together in this order before today.

 

UNPRECEDENTED.

[MossMan]

.04” so far on the day. Brings the week total to .60”.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

But yes, little doubt that low solar (and especially low geomagnetic activity/AP index) would be very helpful at this stage. With easterly shear (+QBO @ 50mb w/ descending easterlies to 30mb) likely strengthening thru winter, keeping the AP index (geomag/solar wind) weak is crucial with the dateline/WPAC forcing likely co-dominant w/ the aggregate of divergence in the WHEM.

 

What's going to be your deadline for a cold season forecast?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[MossMan]

It’s going to snow sometime in the next 7 months!

[Phil]

Very likely that these words have never been put together in this order before today.

 

UNPRECEDENTED.

You know what else would be unprecedented (at least by 21st century standards)? Getting a cold, active September across the majority of the US.

 

Some guidance is actually hinting at the possibility..and for once in blue supermoon it’s not just a fringy thread-the-needle thing. More importantly, the autumnal transition may very well get underway sooner than recent years, and a chilly autumn over the US with a weak Pacific Jet appears more likely than not (IMO).

 

Of course, this is still preliminary until a clearer picture emerges re: the emergence of the stratospheric polar vortex and transition of the Indo-China monsoonal engine. Any significant geomagnetic storming or belated seasonality in the tropics would put a damper on things.

[Phil]

What's going to be your deadline for a cold season forecast?

Haha, that’s up to Mother Nature. And my schedule.

 

All long range forecasts are analogous to peering through fogged up glasses, so I’m cool with that, but I won’t do it blindfolded.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Michael Ventrice says winter cancel

[Deweydog]

I’ll do it blindfolded. Hell, I’d do it blindfolded with one hand tied behind my back and an edible in my belly.

[Deweydog]

Michael Ventrice says winter cancel

More of importantly, does SilverFallsAndrew say that???

[Front Ranger]

You know what else would be unprecedented (at least by 21st century standards)? Getting a cold, active September across the majority of the US.

 

Some guidance is actually hinting at the possibility..and for once in blue supermoon it’s not just a fringy thread-the-needle thing. More importantly, the autumnal transition may very well get underway sooner than recent years, and a chilly autumn over the US with a weak Pacific Jet appears more likely than not (IMO).

 

Of course, this is still preliminary until a clearer picture emerges re: the emergence of the stratospheric polar vortex and transition of the Indo-China monsoonal engine. Any significant geomagnetic storming or belated seasonality in the tropics would put a damper on things.

 

"Active" is somewhat subjective, but the last really cold September for the U.S. was 2006.

 

 

 

As far as falls go, last year was actually pretty chilly and probably the coldest overall for the U.S. since 2006.

 

[Kayla]

The Old Farmer's Almanac says cold and snowy so it will probably be a country wide torch. Thanks a lot Farmer's <_>

 

[El_Nina]

The Old Farmer's Almanac says cold and snowy so it will probably be a country wide torch. Thanks a lot Farmer's <_>

 

Wow they're advertising their social media's. That surprises me.