TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Was watching the news just now and saw a segment on the dry summer in Vancouver. YVR is at 64% of average for summer rainfall Seattle is at 113% of normal since June 1st. Around 125% of normal at the stations out here. King County has been a favored spot... as usual it seems. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Diffrent countries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Diffrent Strokes! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Diffrent Strokes!Left hand? Or, I Guess right hand for a few... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Premiered on 11-3-78... Not a bad start to not a bad winter! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Looks like our first major taste of fall on the 0z GFS later in the run. Pretty likely we will see a big change to chillier minimum temps over the next couple of weeks. Meanwhile the deep solar minimum continues unabated. In fact today saw the lowest combination of x-ray flux and radio flux in the past several months. Very low solar activity for months on end now. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Raining here. Again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Raining here. Again! Did not even think to check the radar... that is a surprisingly impressive band of rain up there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Did not even think to check the radar... that is a surprisingly impressive band of rain up there.Yea. I wasn’t really expecting it. Thought it was supposed to get hung up farther north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Yea. I wasn’t really expecting it. Thought it was supposed to get hung up farther north. It's even made it down to Victoria, none of the models were even hinting at something like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Looks like crap weather returns next Thursday. Clouds are possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Hopefully that band does not trend south. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Already 68 degrees here in NE WA. Back at home we’ve been getting some cooler night time lows. Got down to 52 this morning and 53 on the 20th, which is cooler than what we’ve been seeing recently. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Starting to rain. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Seattle is at 113% of normal since June 1st. Around 125% of normal at the stations out here. King County has been a favored spot... as usual it seems. SEA will probably finish right around normal for 6/1-8/31. Most other spots in the PNW lowlands will likely finish easily below normal. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Edibles sometimes but that's it. Too risky, even travelling to other west coast states. Yeah I'm not into getting arrested at the airport. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Starting to rain. Severe clear down here! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Yeah I'm not into getting arrested at the airport. From the comfort of your own home is so much better. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Hallelujah. Wunderground finally displays PWS data in decimal point format again. Man what a nasty website transition, but I do like the new monthly graphs better since they display the diurnal cycle. I still have some archived data missing but hopefully they’ll remedy that. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Wow, the number of prominences is extremely low right now, significantly lower than the previous minimum. If we don’t see a substantial uptick in high latitude/SC25 polarity spots soon (IE: later solar minimum date) that would make it all the more interesting. We probably haven’t reached the minimum yet, as the flaring (red) was from low latitude SC24-polarity spots. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Starting to rain. Not a cloud in the sky here. Should be another gorgeous day. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Wow, the number of prominences is extremely low right now, significantly lower than the previous minimum. If we don’t see a substantial uptick in high latitude/SC25 polarity spots soon (IE: later solar minimum date) that would make it all the more interesting. We probably haven’t reached the minimum yet, as the flaring (red) was from low latitude SC24-polarity spots. The atmosphere is in a nino state according to Ventrice so that puts a damper on things but this notable solar minimum is intriguing and can hopefully overpower it and bring us some goodies. 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Mostly sunny here... nice morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Also for all of you golf course fans out there...This will probably make you vomit! 7 green and fairway at Kayak Point! Anyway back to the weather...Nice evening! Frickin' poa still dominating the (former) green! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Its pretty unusual to have rain falling from Everett northward while its sunny here... but that is happening today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 The atmosphere is in a nino state according to Ventrice so that puts a damper on things but this notable solar minimum is intriguing and can hopefully overpower it and bring us some goodies.Well, a “niño state” refers to a multitude of components and can be meaningless at this point in time if you’re forecasting seasonally/subseasonally for a specific location, especially in low amplitude/non-canonical state evolutions such as this one. For instance, the atmosphere was in a “niño state” last year, 1972/73, and in 1968/69, and the PNW got hammered. On the flip side, it was in a strong “niña state” in 1999/00, and that was a dud winter. What matters is the spatial structure of the SSTs/circulations and the degree of coupling, as well as the communications to/from/thru forcings/conduits such as solar/QBO/photochemistry, all of which affect tropical convection and wave trains across the planet. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 But yes, little doubt that low solar (and especially low geomagnetic activity/AP index) would be very helpful at this stage. With easterly shear (+QBO @ 50mb w/ descending easterlies to 30mb) likely strengthening thru winter, keeping the AP index (geomag/solar wind) weak is crucial with the dateline/WPAC forcing likely co-dominant w/ the aggregate of divergence in the WHEM. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 But yes, little doubt that low solar (and especially low geomagnetic activity/AP index) would be very helpful at this stage. With easterly shear (+QBO @ 50mb w/ descending easterlies to 30mb) likely strengthening thru winter, keeping the AP index (geomag/solar wind) weak is crucial with the dateline/WPAC forcing likely co-dominant w/ the aggregate of divergence in the WHEM. Very likely that these words have never been put together in this order before today. UNPRECEDENTED. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 .04” so far on the day. Brings the week total to .60”. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 But yes, little doubt that low solar (and especially low geomagnetic activity/AP index) would be very helpful at this stage. With easterly shear (+QBO @ 50mb w/ descending easterlies to 30mb) likely strengthening thru winter, keeping the AP index (geomag/solar wind) weak is crucial with the dateline/WPAC forcing likely co-dominant w/ the aggregate of divergence in the WHEM. What's going to be your deadline for a cold season forecast? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 It’s going to snow sometime in the next 7 months! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Very likely that these words have never been put together in this order before today. UNPRECEDENTED.You know what else would be unprecedented (at least by 21st century standards)? Getting a cold, active September across the majority of the US. Some guidance is actually hinting at the possibility..and for once in blue supermoon it’s not just a fringy thread-the-needle thing. More importantly, the autumnal transition may very well get underway sooner than recent years, and a chilly autumn over the US with a weak Pacific Jet appears more likely than not (IMO). Of course, this is still preliminary until a clearer picture emerges re: the emergence of the stratospheric polar vortex and transition of the Indo-China monsoonal engine. Any significant geomagnetic storming or belated seasonality in the tropics would put a damper on things. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 What's going to be your deadline for a cold season forecast?Haha, that’s up to Mother Nature. And my schedule. All long range forecasts are analogous to peering through fogged up glasses, so I’m cool with that, but I won’t do it blindfolded. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Michael Ventrice says winter cancel Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 I’ll do it blindfolded. Hell, I’d do it blindfolded with one hand tied behind my back and an edible in my belly. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 Michael Ventrice says winter cancelMore of importantly, does SilverFallsAndrew say that??? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 You know what else would be unprecedented (at least by 21st century standards)? Getting a cold, active September across the majority of the US. Some guidance is actually hinting at the possibility..and for once in blue supermoon it’s not just a fringy thread-the-needle thing. More importantly, the autumnal transition may very well get underway sooner than recent years, and a chilly autumn over the US with a weak Pacific Jet appears more likely than not (IMO). Of course, this is still preliminary until a clearer picture emerges re: the emergence of the stratospheric polar vortex and transition of the Indo-China monsoonal engine. Any significant geomagnetic storming or belated seasonality in the tropics would put a damper on things. "Active" is somewhat subjective, but the last really cold September for the U.S. was 2006. As far as falls go, last year was actually pretty chilly and probably the coldest overall for the U.S. since 2006. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 The Old Farmer's Almanac says cold and snowy so it will probably be a country wide torch. Thanks a lot Farmer's <_> Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted August 23, 2019 Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 The Old Farmer's Almanac says cold and snowy so it will probably be a country wide torch. Thanks a lot Farmer's <_> Wow they're advertising their social media's. That surprises me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.