[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 with light rain this morning. 0.05" in the bucket. 

[Jbolin]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

F*** A Duck

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Drought relief 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Drought relief 

It's a beautiful map. Let's see if anything close to that can happen. 

[BLI snowman]

March will probably be a little cool but not cold, and a little wet... if I had to posit a guess.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Seems like the Euro kind of caved to the milder GFS as far as the depth of the cold airmass tomorrow and Thursday 

[Deweydog]

Moderate rain!

[TacomaWaWx]

46 and some sprinkles. Just 0.02” so far today. 

[TacomaWaWx]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12 Euro through day 10 looks similar 

 

Interested to see how the pattern looks coming up…going to be on orcas island the 18th-20th for my birthday. Don’t mind if it’s wet…but hopefully it’s cold enough for some snow on the mountain if it is wet. 

[Phishy Wx]

actually had a few flurries earlier

 

38 feels like 33

[Kayla]

Picked up 10" of snowfall here overnight when I measured at 7:30am this morning. Back up to a 20" base. Been snowing all day and looks to continue until midnight or so. Could end up with around 15" at this rate.

Currently 15F with below zero temps expected tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

43 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Picked up 10" of snowfall here overnight when I measured at 7:30am this morning. Back up to a 20" base. Been snowing all day and looks to continue until midnight or so. Could end up with around 15" at this rate.

Currently 15F with below zero temps expected tonight.

Wow. Enjoy? or are you done with Cold and SNOW?

[Meatyorologist]

Thankfully it looks like the lean mean zonal machine will be making some kind of a comeback by early next week. At face value, it seems to be the best zonal pattern since Fall.

If this -ENSO winter has felt different than usual, despite temperature and precip anomalies following suit, then this is why.

[Meatyorologist]

-ENSO/-QBO producing one of the blockiest winters in memory, largely to a fault. No NW zonal in sight. @Phil what went wrong?

[NWbyNW]

Sunny blue skies, clouds towards the mountains.   

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

[Gradient Keeper]

La Nina might persist through the Summer now. Neutral Fall/Winter ahead? A 3rd consecutive Nina? Could be. I hope it's wetter than average for the entire west coast. The NCEP CFS agrees.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

La Nina might persist through the Summer now. Neutral Fall/Winter ahead? A 3rd consecutive Nina? Could be. I hope it's wetter than average for the entire west coast. The NCEP CFS agrees.

Jim was... right?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

La Nina might persist through the Summer now. Neutral Fall/Winter ahead? A 3rd consecutive Nina? Could be. I hope it's wetter than average for the entire west coast. The NCEP CFS agrees.

Consensus of all models seems to be right around neutral.   I love neutral.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Jim was... right?

Of course.

00z GFS in 3 hours 9 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Consensus of all models seems to be right around neutral.   I love neutral.  

SSTs currently aren't showing any shift towards Neutral anytime soon. We shall see.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Consensus of all models seems to be right around neutral.   I love neutral.  

As long as the SW gets some decent rainfall next winter. And a cool upcoming summer here would be nice

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

-ENSO/-QBO producing one of the blockiest winters in memory, largely to a fault. No NW zonal in sight. @Phil what went wrong?

Followed climo in Nov/Dec, but the bizarre warmth in the lower subtropical stratosphere increased static stability in the tropics and accelerated the thermal wind/strengthened the PV. At that point the IPWP MJO/RWC entered constructive resonance, culminating in the 2015-like +TNH/+NAO.

It was one heck of an intraseasonal belch, that’s for sure. And easily could have sparked an ENSO transition (though the odds of that have lowered dramatically).

[gusky]

Has this new parameter in WeatherBell been pointed out yet? Pretty nice!

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Consensus of all models seems to be right around neutral.   I love neutral.  

At the rate things are going w/ respect to thermocline shoaling, we could maintain a -ENSO background state through 2022.

I’m shocked, tbh. Did not expect this at all, even just 4 weeks ago. I thought El Niño was a sure bet, but the climate system has made its intentions known.

[gusky]

3 minutes ago, gusky said:

Has this new parameter in WeatherBell been pointed out yet? Pretty nice!

Alright, the more I think about it the more I realize how helpful this is. Makes it super easy to compare runs.

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

La Nina might persist through the Summer now. Neutral Fall/Winter ahead? A 3rd consecutive Nina? Could be. I hope it's wetter than average for the entire west coast. The NCEP CFS agrees.

I doubt the La Niña will maintain such strength as modeled by the CFS, but yes, other models (including the EPS seasonal) also maintain a -ENSO signature through summer.

Still, I think we should wait a couple of months before adjusting expectations too dramatically.

[Kayla]

3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wow. Enjoy? or are you done with Cold and SNOW?

Haha yeah I mean I always like a good storm! But yeah I'm definitely done with the cold.

Down to 10F now and still dumping snow. This thing has way over performed. I'lI get another measurement before bedtime but it's DEEP out there. Gotta love northerly upslope flow, close to 16" in the past 24 hours now.

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Consensus of all models seems to be right around neutral.   I love neutral.  

Neutral is also REALLY good for out here.

[TacomaWaWx]

47/41 so far today. Just 0.02” this morning. Probably will get a midnight low tonight 

[Meatyorologist]

40 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Haha yeah I mean I always like a good storm! But yeah I'm definitely done with the cold.

Down to 10F now and still dumping snow. This thing has way over performed. I'lI get another measurement before bedtime but it's DEEP out there. Gotta love northerly upslope flow, close to 16" in the past 24 hours now.

Your climate is legendary. #jelly

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

At the rate things are going w/ respect to thermocline shoaling, we could maintain a -ENSO background state through 2022.

I’m shocked, tbh. Did not expect this at all, even just 4 weeks ago. I thought El Niño was a sure bet, but the climate system has made its intentions known.

[Cascadia_Wx]

47/37 day here the low was set at midnight last night when there were still clear skies rain or drizzle most of the daylight hours today picked up almost .30” so this system was an overachiever here 

[Blizzard777]

47/41

It was a chilly walk down on the Sound this evening …44* 

.05 precipitation today and 1.07 for the month 

[Kayla]

Just added up my season snowfall totals so far and I was really surprised to see that we've seen 106" already up to this point. It has felt like such a bad winter (we’re still in a severe drought) but apparently not. Had bare ground up until mid December (which is highly unusual) but we haven't seen our grass since then and we now have our highest base depth of the season with 22" on the ground on March 8th. Truly a Winter (Spring!) of extremes. 

Currently 7F with light snow continuing.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS (Day 1-10) 500mb Height Anomaly

10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[TT-SEA]

Foggy and drizzly all day and now perfectly clear with the moon shining.   Nature got it backwards today.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Foggy and drizzly all day and now perfectly clear with the moon shining.   Nature got it backwards today.

Nature did exactly as it intended to.

[FroYoBro]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nature did exactly as it intended to.

God bless and good night.

[TT-SEA]

4 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nature did exactly as it intended to.

Well of course.    Just backwards for my liking.   Yesterday was the opposite... sunny all day and then the low clouds came in just as it got dark.   You win some and you lose some.